The Q4 2025 data reveals a sharp divergence in global asset classes.
While capital continues to flee into high-yield “sunbelt” markets in Southern Europe and the MENA region, major industrial economies in Asia and North America are facing significant headwinds.
Europe: The “Two-Speed” Continent
Europe is currently the most fractured region in the index, characterized by a massive performance gap between the emerging South/East and the mature North.
- The Boom: π΅πΉ Portugal (+23.6%) remains the global outlier, driven by acute supply shortages and sustained international demand. This bullish sentiment has spread East, with π·π΄ Romania (+14.9%) and π±πΉ Lithuania (+11.3%) posting double-digit gains as real wages in these economies catch up to Western standards.
- The Stabilization: In contrast, Northern and Western Europe have entered a period of cooling or low-growth stability. π³π΄ Norway (+5.94%) and π¨π Switzerland (+4.5%) are seeing moderate appreciation, while πΈπͺ Sweden (+0.8%) remains effectively flat, signaling that the post-pandemic correction in the Nordics has bottomed out but lacks upward momentum.
Asia: The Deep Correction
Asia remains the drag on the global index, weighed down heavily by the “Greater China” correction.
- The Red Zone: π¨π³ China (-8.5%) continues to struggle with property sector deleveraging, a trend that is now heavily impacting πΉπΌ Taiwan (-3.7%), which posted its sharpest decline in three years.
- The Safe Havens: Elsewhere in the region, growth is anemic but positive. πΈπ¬ Singapore (+3.3%) continues to act as a regional safe haven, managing a soft landing. π°π· South Korea (+1.0%) and πΉπ Thailand (+0.6%) are treading water, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment amidst slowing regional exports.
The Americas: A Sharp North-South Divide
The Western Hemisphere is currently defined by a stark decoupling between the North and South. While the post-pandemic correction has firmly gripped the Canadian market, Latin America and the Caribbean are seeing a resurgence of capital inflows.
- The Northern Correction: π¨π¦ Canada (-6.2%) stands out as the only major Western market in deep correction territory for this period. After years of aggressive growth, the Canadian market is undergoing a painful price discovery phase, likely triggered by affordability ceilings and renewed mortgage rate pressures that have sidelined domestic buyers.
- The Caribbean & Central Surge: In sharp contrast, the "Sunbelt" trade has gone global. π¨π· Costa Rica (+10.3%) and the π©π΄ Dominican Republic (+10.2%) are posting double-digit gains. These markets are decoupling completely from their Northern neighbor, driven by a wave of foreign direct investment and a booming short-term rental market that is driving up asset values.
- South American Stability: Further south, the major economies are showing resilience. π§π· Brazil (+4.6%) and π¨π΄ Colombia (+4.5%) have settled into a pattern of steady, mid-single-digit growth. While not overheating like the Caribbean, these markets offer a stable alternative to the volatility seen in North America.
Middle East & North Africa: The Yield Hunt
The MENA region remains a magnet for wealth preservation, though performance is specific to sub-regions.
- The Gulf: π¦πͺ UAE (Dubai) (+12.9%) continues its multi-year bull run, successfully transitioning from a speculative market to a primary global luxury hub. However, πΆπ¦ Qatar (-0.1%) remains flat, highlighting that regional growth is not uniform.
- North Africa: πΉπ³ Tunisia (+6.1%) has emerged as a resilient secondary market, posting solid gains likely driven by localized demand dynamics and relative affordability compared to European markets across the Mediterranean.
1 Year House Price Change (Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024)
| Country | Nominal Change (1yr) | Inflation-Adjusted (Real) |
| π΅πΉ Portugal | +23.6% | +20.55% |
| π·π΄ Romania | +14.9% | +5.82% |
| π¦πͺ UAE (Dubai) | +12.9% | +9.60% |
| π±πΉ Lithuania | +11.3% | +7.63% |
| π¨π· Costa Rica | +10.3% | +11.69% |
| π©π΄ Dominican Republic | +10.2% | +5.05% |
| πΉπ³ Tunisia | +6.1% | +1.04% |
| π³π΄ Norway | +5.94% | +2.76% |
| π§π· Brazil | +4.6% | +0.29% |
| π¨π΄ Colombia | +4.5% | -0.73% |
| π¨π Switzerland | +4.5% | +4.47% |
| π³π± Netherlands | +3.5% | +0.57% |
| πΈπ¬ Singapore | +3.3% | +2.12% |
| π¬πͺ Georgia | +3.3% | -0.67% |
| π°π· South Korea | +1.0% | -1.26% |
| πΈπͺ Sweden | +0.8% | +0.35% |
| πΉπ Thailand | +0.6% | +0.91% |
| πΆπ¦ Qatar | -0.1% | -1.94% |
| πΉπΌ Taiwan | -3.7% | -4.92% |
| π¨π¦ Canada | -6.2% | -8.33% |
| π¨π³ China | -8.5% | -9.25% |
Data Source: Global Property Guide, Q4 2025 Proprietary Data from ECB, OECD and other national statistics offices.
