China's Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

Sales prices and rents across Chinese cities are still in decline, impacted by the market’s structural challenges, including substantial unsold inventory, low housing affordability, and employment uncertainty exacerbated by ongoing trade tensions with the US.

This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the Chinese housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Residential property prices in major Chinese cities continued to decline in the final quarter of 2024, reflecting the prolonged challenges facing the country's real estate sector. According to the Index of Selected Residential Property Prices, an aggregate of city-level data compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and reported by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), prices fell by 8.57% year-on-year, or 8.75% in real terms after adjusting for inflation.

China's house price annual change:

In response to the persistent downturn, the Chinese central government expanded its policy interventions in late 2024. Building on measures introduced earlier in the year, an extended, integrated policy package was deployed to stimulate investment, accelerate the renovation of older urban neighborhoods, increase the supply of affordable housing, and implement a "white list" mechanism to channel financial support to qualified developers.

Industry experts view these actions as part of a broader effort to revive housing transactions. "The policy mix －including more flexible mortgage policies, lower interest rates on existing home loans, reduced taxes on home upgrades, and adjustments to the housing provident fund －has eased the burden on homebuyers and further unlocked housing demand," said Hou Yongzhi with the Development Research Center of the State Council. Early indicators suggest the property sector began showing cautious signs of recovery in early 2025.

By March 2025, the year-on-year decline in sales prices for commercial residential properties had started to moderate across city tiers. In first-tier cities, newly built home prices dropped by 2.8% year-on-year - a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month. Prices for second-hand homes fell 4.1% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.8 percentage points, according to the NBS data. The rate of price decreases in tier-two and tier-three cities also slowed, though the overall downward trend persisted.

Sales price indices movement by city tier:

Data from the China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) showed that, as of March 2025, the average price of newly built residential properties stood at RMB 16,740 (USD 2,334) per square meter, while second-hand properties averaged RMB 13,988 (USD 1,950) per square meter across 100 monitored cities. Among first-tier cities, Shanghai recorded the strongest growth in new home prices, rising 10.10% year-on-year. However, all tier-one cities saw continued price declines in the second-hand segment.

Average house prices in Tier-1 cities:

Market expectations remain cautious. A Reuters poll conducted between February 12 and 24 among 10 analysts projected a 2.5% decline in home prices in 2025. Growth is expected to resume in 2026, with prices rising at an annual pace of 1.2%, followed by a further increase of 2.0% in 2027.

The survey also pointed to divergent trends across city tiers. While tier-one and some leading tier-two cities are forecast to experience a mild price correction and stabilize by 2026, lower-tier cities are likely to face a more extended downturn, according to analysts at S&P Global Ratings.

To accelerate recovery, analysts argue that the government may need to pursue more direct interventions, including large-scale state purchases of unsold housing stock. "The sector continues to face structural challenges, including a large unsold housing inventory, employment uncertainty, and low housing affordability," said Tyran Kam, senior director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings.

Historic Perspective:

China's Property Bubble: The Crisis, Government Action, and Future Prospects

China's current property crisis stems from the central role of real estate in its economy, which drove rapid growth and contributed about 20% of economic activity. For a decade before the pandemic, housing prices surged relative to household incomes, partly because consumers, facing limited attractive savings options, increasingly invested in property. This fueled heavy borrowing by developers, while local governments became dependent on land sales for revenue.

In 2020, to address concerns about the overheating market, the Chinese authorities introduced the "Three Red Lines" policy aimed at curbing speculative behavior and excessive corporate debt. The policy imposed strict limits on developers' leverage and liquidity, while banks were restricted from lending to these firms. This credit squeeze then contributed to the collapse of overleveraged developers.

The consecutive fall of China Evergrande Group in 2021, with over USD 300 billion in liabilities, exposed the sector's vulnerability. The crisis quickly spread to other developers, such as Sunac China and Fantasia Holdings, leading to a wave of defaults. As property sales plummeted, many developers who relied on pre-sales to finance construction struggled to finish projects. In response, numerous homebuyers launched a "mortgage boycott", refusing to make payments on unfinished apartments.

Real estate activity has since sharply contracted. By 2023, housing starts had dropped by more than 60% from pre-pandemic levels, marking one of the largest housing busts globally in decades. This decline was exacerbated by homebuyers' concerns about developers' financial health and uncertain property prices, with demand reaching a 13-year low.

Throughout most of 2024, the market continued to weaken. The first three quarters saw further declines in new residential construction, sales, and prices, as buyers remained cautious and developers struggled with liquidity constraints. In response, the government unveiled a comprehensive set of policy measures aimed at restoring market confidence and supporting broader economic stability.

These measures included interest rate cuts, lower down payment requirements, and the easing of purchase restrictions, making homeownership more accessible. Financing support was extended to ensure the delivery of delayed projects, while the removal of buying restrictions and price caps helped revive transaction volumes. Eliminating land price ceilings improved profitability for developers, encouraging the launch of more high-end projects and raising first-hand prices in key cities. Meanwhile, unsold housing stock began to be repurposed or purchased for affordable housing, and idle land was redirected toward more productive uses. Stricter pre-sale regulations, though likely to slow immediate sales, aimed to restore homebuyer trust by ensuring project completion.

While initial reactions to these policy shifts were cautious, early signs of stabilization emerged in November and December 2024. Price declines began to narrow, and first-tier cities reported a modest recovery in market activity. However, overall conditions remain far from pre-crisis levels. A more sustained recovery and broader stabilization of the sector are anticipated by late 2026 or early 2027.

New Directives introduced in October-December 2024:

Residential market dynamic (inventory, started and completed housing units, area of new housing units sold):

Data Source: NBS.

Demand Highlights:

Market Stabilization Uneven but Underway Amid Targeted Stimulus

New home sales continue to decrease, although the pace of contraction has slowed. According to the NBS, 814.5 million square meters of new housing were sold nationwide in 2024, a 14.08% drop year-on-year, compared to sharper declines of 17.30% in 2022 and 25.77% in 2021. The slowdown in decline continued into the first quarter of 2025, with 184.81 million square meters sold, down just 2.43% year-on-year. Morningstar analysts attribute the recent stabilization to policy easing in major cities, including the removal of purchase restrictions and looser mortgage terms.

Data Source: NBS.

Buyer preferences are also shifting. While off-plan homes still account for the majority of new residential sales, their market share has declined significantly, from 90% in 2021 to 67% by March 2025, as concerns over project delivery persist. In the first quarter of 2025, the sold area of off-plan homes dropped 10.18% year-on-year, while transactions of completed new units rose by 18.63%. Morningstar notes that this trend is likely to continue, given the remaining liquidity challenges among developers. On a positive note, they highlight the accelerated implementation of the government's RMB 4 trillion loan program, which may help ease delivery concerns.

Meanwhile, the secondary housing market has gained momentum and now serves as a key barometer for overall recovery in buyer activity. Since 2022, demand for existing homes has consistently outperformed the primary market - a notable shift after decades of dominance by new builds. In December 2024, more than 20,000 second-hand homes were sold in Beijing, the highest monthly figure in over 20 months, according to S&P Global Ratings. This reflects resilient underlying demand and the early impact of supportive policies.

"In our view, richer, upper-tier cities will turn around first, eventually boosting the confidence and demand of consumers in more peripheral regions," commented S&P Global Ratings analysts. Data from Wind Information, analyzed by CNBC, shows that as of March 2025, weekly existing home sales in five major cities were up more than 30% year-on-year, projecting that second-hand homes could account for half of total residential transactions by 2026. S&P analysts attribute this momentum to recent price adjustments, which have made resale homes more attractive.

Looking ahead, industry experts expect continued improvement in sales volumes, supported by policy tailwinds. "With investment declines narrowing this year, stabilization is expected by late 2026 or early 2027," said Ma Hong, analyst at GDDCE Research Institution. Secondary market activity is widely viewed as a leading indicator for the primary market, with higher-end properties in major cities expected to lead the rebound.

"Generally China's [recent] policy efforts have been quite extensive," said Sky Kwah, head of investment advisory at Raffles Family Office, in an interview with CNBC. "The key at this point in time is execution. The sector recovery relies on consumer confidence," he added. "You do not reverse confidence overnight."

Supply Highlights:

Inventory Peaks Push Authorities Toward Intervention-Led Absorption

In 2024, the total area of residential projects started in China declined by 22.55% year-on-year, reaching 536.6 million square meters, according to the NBS. At the same time, the total area of completed residential units fell by 25.81% to 537 million square meters. This sharp decline was largely driven by sluggish landbank acquisitions and weak presale activity in previous years.

The downward momentum continued into 2025. In the first quarter alone, the area of newly started residential units dropped by 24.27% year-on-year, while completions fell by 14.77%. Morningstar analysts expect new home starts to remain subdued throughout 2025. However, completions are projected to improve due to the CNY 4 trillion in special loans allocated by the government for finishing stalled projects.

Data Source: NBS.

Meanwhile, inventory levels have reached their highest point since 2018. The NBS reported that in 2024, the residential area available for sale increased by 18.02% year-on-year to 390.88 million square meters, a slower pace compared to the 22.90% rise in 2023. By March 2025, this figure had climbed to 421.58 million square meters, though the growth rate had decelerated further to 6.84% year-on-year.

Data Source: NBS.

With first-hand transaction volumes stagnating, reducing inventory has become a primary objective to enhance supply efficiency and utilization. Local governments are responding by limiting residential land supply and reclaiming idle land at discounted prices, aiming to curb future oversupply and provide refinancing avenues for developers.

Urban renewal initiatives have now extended to 300 cities, emphasizing brownfield redevelopment over outward urban expansion. Home voucher programs have been introduced to facilitate smoother resettlement processes, offer residents more housing options, and help absorb unsold inventory. Local governments are also purchasing completed units for conversion into affordable rental housing, improving liquidity for developers while supporting housing affordability. "While most local governments were slow in execution, we think some cities like Zhengzhou and Chongqing have stepped up the property purchasing process. Looking ahead, we expect more cities to follow suit and receive funds from financial institutions for buying idle residential units," commented Morningstar.

Nevertheless, developers continue to struggle with liquidity constraints and are prioritizing the sale of completed units over new land acquisitions. While the whitelist program may support stronger players, many remain cautious. "More broadly, developers will need to offer discounts and trade-in schemes to boost short-term liquidity, though this could pressure solvency ratings," commented Savills, adding that many are pursuing operational efficiencies, refinancing strategies, or diversifying away from residential real estate. Those holding high-priced land are seeking returns through equity partnerships or product enhancements to improve profitability and sales.

Rental Market:

State-Subsidized Supply Expands, Rents Still in Decline

While, according to the PBOC, in the pre-pandemic decade, the annual rental inflation in China exceeded 1.2%, it slowed significantly in recent years and has been in the negative in the last twelve months. In March 2025, the rent of the rental housing component of the consumer price index (CPI) showed a 0.1% year-on-year decline, trending upwards, however, from -0.4% and -0.3% annual change rates previously registered in September 2024 and December 2024, respectively.

"In recent years, rents have declined due to lower income expectations and the increase in government-subsidized housing supply. This has provided tenants with more options and increased bargaining power, making lease renewals a key challenge for leasing companies," noted Savills in their 2025 Chinese Real Estate Market Outlook. Although not in direct competition with market-based housing, the subsidized segment is influencing tenant preferences and contributes to downward pressure on rents in the market-based rental sector.

Data Source: NBS.

In nominal terms, according to the CREIS data on 50 cities across China, the average listed monthly rent in March 2025 stood at RMB 35.3 (USD 4.9) per square meter, 0.05% down month-on-month and 3.4% down year-on-year. On the regional level, conditions varied significantly across the submarkets. Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou remained the most expensive urban centers, all five cities, however, recording a drop in average rents in the last twelve months.

Average monthly rents in selected cities:

Overall, the rental sector continues to expand amid the ongoing transformation of the property market in China, attracting institutional investors and being seen by the authorities as one of the key development directions (especially for activating the existing housing stock). The previously implemented government incentives included tax benefits, a dedicated supply of land for rental housing projects, and increased credit availability through targeted lending facilities from the central bank. According to Savills, over 200 housing leasing-related policies were introduced at the local level in 2024, focusing on enhancing industry regulation and strengthening policy support to improve the rental housing environment from both the supply and demand sides and stabilize the market.

The assessment from Savills shows that increased liquidity, supportive policies, and the absence of viable alternatives have attracted more investors to the market-oriented segment of rental housing. By November 2024, the top 30 enterprises in the sector owned a total of 1.226 million units, an increase of 140,000 units compared to 2023. In parallel, the state-subsidized supply continues to expand, with the government's delivery target for 2021-2025 set at 8.7 million units, of which 2 million units - in first-tier cities.

"The leasing market continues to be a focal point, although consolidation within this rapidly growing sector may occur as it adapts to changing market demands and post-pandemic realities," Savills summarized, noting that, faced with growing competition and a saturated market, rental housing enterprises in China are now shifting their focus beyond market share to enhancing product quality and strengthening brand development.

Mortgage Market:

Decreasing Interest Rates and Early Signs of Rebound in Property Lending

China's main lending benchmark, the loan prime rate (LPR), calculated by National Interbank Funding Center (NIFC) based on 20 quoting banks' actual loan rates granted to their best clients and interest rate of open market operations and authorized by the PBOC, has been on a long-term downward trajectory, most recently cut by 25 b.p. in October 2024 and maintained at 3.10% for 1Y LPR and 3.60% for 5Y LPR since.

The most recent decision to keep the rates unchanged announced by the PBOC at the end of April was widely expected, as the regulator is likely waiting to see how the trade war with the US unfolds before making further moves. However, many economists expect policy easing to resume later this year, prompted by low inflation in the country and the impact of the US tariffs on China's economy.

Following the overall trajectory of the 5Y LPR, on which many lenders base their mortgage rates, the weighted average interest rate on new mortgages, reported by the PBOC on a quarterly basis, was most recently recorded at 3.09% in December 2024, 0.88 points down from a year ago and 1.17 points down from two years ago.

In their Q1 2025 China Real Estate Market Pulse, Morningstar estimates that average mortgage costs for most cities in China dropped by 25 b.p. since October following the reduction of the 5Y LPR, noting that nationwide mortgage rates have likely reached the trough since policy easing began in 2022 and while domestic interest rates may further decline in 2025, the process could be more tempered by the US Federal Reserve's decisions. On a regional level, Tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are seen to have retained higher borrowing costs than lower-tier cities, which have largely removed the mortgage rate floor after policy shifts last year.

Data Sources: PBOC, China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS).

Aiming to stabilize the property market and support the economy, the authorities previously implemented a series of new policy measures throughout 2024, including cutting the banks' reserve requirement ratio (which freed up liquidity for lending), removing nationwide mortgage interest rate floors, guiding commercial lenders to reduce their interest rates on existing mortgages (with an average reduction of about 0.5 points), and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for second and first mortgages at 15%.

"Currently, the batch adjustment of interest rates on existing housing loans has been completed, benefiting more than 50 million households and 150 million people and reducing the housing loan interest costs for borrowers by RMB 150 billion each year. This has provided strong support for stabilizing market confidence and has promoted an expansion of consumption and investment," said the PBOC in its Q4 2024 monetary policy report.

The central bank's Q4 2024 report on the credit structure of financial institutions and the March 2025 financial statistics report note the growing volume of household loans in recent months, indicating a rebound in property lending growth encouraged by policy adjustments.

"New mid- to long-term household loans (mostly mortgages) shot up in the fourth quarter due to a resurgence in home sales and banks expediting their loan-granting processes. In addition, we think the easing of existing mortgage loan rates has curbed homeowners' early repayment in recent quarters," commented Morningstar.

These early signs of recovery are yet to reflect in the balance of personal housing loans maintained by China's financial institutions, which, after a period of rapid expansion (19% annual increase, on average) between 2013 and 2021, slowed to 1.3% in 2022 and shifted into the negative territory since. The total value of outstanding housing loans to households reported by the PBOC showed year-on-year declines of 1.6% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, reaching RMB 37.7 trillion (USD 5.3 trillion) at the end of last year. Sized against the national economy, the stock dropped from 33.3% of GDP at current prices in 2020 to 27.9% in 2024.

Data Sources: PBOC, NBS.

Socio-Economic Context:

US Tariffs Weigh on Growth Potential, Endanger Export Jobs

China's growth has been on a general deceleration trajectory in recent years, reflecting the impact of the pandemic, property market correction, and structural headwinds such as weakening productivity and labor force growth. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures, the country's real GDP growth slowed from 5.4% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024, and the indicator is currently projected to moderate further, reaching 4.0% in 2025 and 2026.

The IMF growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 was recently lowered by 0.6 points and 0.5 points, respectively, in the April issue of the World Economic Outlook, following the escalation of trade tensions and the announcement of the 145% US tariffs on China. While the Chinese authorities are reported to express confidence in the country's economic recovery based on the Q1 2025 performance, global experts cited by Reuters don't expect the economy to hit Beijing's official growth target of 5% this year.

"External demand will weigh on growth as the US raises tariffs on Chinese goods. <…> China appears more resilient to direct US tariffs compared to President Trump's first term, as it has diversified its export markets. Even so, the tariff rise has been much more drastic, and China will still be affected by a broader tariff-induced global slowdown," said Fitch Ratings in their latest rating action commentary in April 2025.

In parallel with the economic slowdown, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in China has dropped from 2% in 2022 to just 0.2% in 2023 and 2024 and was most recently reported by the NBS in negative territory at -0.7% in February 2025 and -0.1% in March 2025. The IMF currently projects the annual inflation in the country to halt at 0% in 2025 before re-accelerating from 2026 onward.

Data Source: IMF.

Against the backdrop of the general economic slowdown, China's labor market is experiencing certain constraints as well. While the overall urban surveyed unemployment rate published by the NBS eased modestly from a 6.1% peak in April 2022 to 5.2% in March 2025, the indicator remains much more elevated for the younger population groups. In March, urban survey unemployment reached 7.2% for the 25-29 age group (excluding students) and 16.5% for the 16-24 age group (excluding students). "Some 15% of young people are unemployed, and in recent years, more than 10 million students have graduated from colleges annually," highlights the issue in a recent insights article from Goldman Sachs.

At the end of April 2025, China announced the roll-out of employment support measures, which will focus on encouraging businesses to maintain stable staffing levels, intensifying vocational skills training, expanding work-relief programs, and strengthening public employment services. The roll-out also includes tailored policies to assist export enterprises in mitigating risks amid the unfolding trade confrontation with the US.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates cited by CNBC, around 16 million jobs in China are involved in the production of goods exported to the US, with manufacturers around the country now reportedly pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of tariffs sets in.

Data Source: NBS.

In general, the transition to lower growth is seen as consistent with China's authorities' goal to pursue high-quality growth and reduce the imbalances and vulnerabilities that have emerged, most notably with the significant build-up of debt. According to the IMF figures, the country's general government gross debt ballooned from 39.3% of GDP in 2014 to 88.3% in 2024 and is forecast to keep expanding in the future.

In April 2025, reflecting expectations of a continued weakening of China's public finances and a rapidly rising public debt trajectory during the economic transition, Fitch Ratings downgraded China's standing from 'A+' to 'A' with a stable outlook. "In our view, sustained fiscal stimulus will be deployed to support growth amid subdued domestic demand, rising tariffs, and deflationary pressures. This support, along with a structural erosion in the revenue base, will likely keep fiscal deficits high. <…> China's strengths, including its large and diversified economy, solid GDP growth prospects relative to peers, integral role in global trade, and robust external finances, will balance fiscal challenges at the new rating level," said the corresponding rating action commentary from Fitch.

Sources:

1. The State Council of the People's Republic of China
   1. More Chinese Cities See Rising Home Prices Amid Gov't Efforts To Stabilize Market: https://english.www.gov.cn/
2. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
   1. National Data: https://data.stats.gov.cn/
   2. Basic Situation Of National Real Estate Market In 2024 (CN): https://www.stats.gov.cn/
   3. Basic Situation Of National Real Estate Market In January - March 2025 (CN): https://www.stats.gov.cn/
   4. Interpretation of the Statistical Data on Changes in Commercial Housing Sales Prices in March 2025 (CN): https://www.stats.gov.cn/
   5. Investment in Real Estate Development for Jan-Feb 2025: https://www.stats.gov.cn/
   6. The National Economy Off to a Good Start in the First Quarter (CN): https://www.stats.gov.cn/
   7. In March 2025, the Consumer Price Index Fell by 0.1% Year-on-Year (CN): https://www.stats.gov.cn/
3. People's Bank of China (PBOC)
   1. Monetary Policy Reports: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
   2. LPR: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
   3. Statistical Report on the Credit Structure of Financial Institutions (Q4 2024): http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
   4. Financial Statistics Report (March 2025): http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
4. China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS)
   1. LPR Historical Data: https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/
5. China Real Estate Index System (CREIS)
   1. CREIS China Residential House Price Index in 100 Cities Monthly, March 2025, Press Release: https://fdc.fang.com/
   2. 100-city New Housing Price Index (CN): https://www.cih-index.com/
   3. 100-city Second-Hand Housing Price Index (CN): https://www.cih-index.com/
   4. 50-city Residential Rental Price Index (CN): https://www.cih-index.com/
6. Bank of International Settlements (BIS)
   1. Selected Residential Property Prices, Nominal, Index, 2010=100: https://data.bis.org/
   2. Selected Residential Property Prices, Real, Index, 2010=100: https://data.bis.org/
7. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: People's Republic of China: https://www.imf.org/
   2. 2024 Article IV Staff Report: https://www.imf.org/
   3. World Economic Outlook: https://www.imf.org/
8. Morningstar
   1. China Real Estate Market Pulse Q1 2025: https://www.morningstar.com/
   2. China's Benchmark Lending Rates Left on Hold Again: https://www.morningstar.com/
9. S&P Global Ratings
   1. Surging Secondary Sales to Stabilize China Property In 2025: https://www.spglobal.com/
10. Fitch Ratings
    1. Fitch Downgrades China to 'A'; Outlook Stable: https://www.fitchratings.com/
    2. China Housing Market Forecast 2024-2040: https://www.fitchratings.com/
11. Goldman Sachs
    1. What Advanced AI Means for China's Economic Outlook: https://www.goldmansachs.com/
12. Savills
    1. Chinese Real Estate Market Outlook, Feb 2025: https://pdf.savills.asia/
13. Reuters
    1. China's Home Prices to Drop Further, Recovery Not Expected Until 2026: Reuters Poll: https://www.reuters.com/
    2. China's Home Prices Halt Decline in March, But Pressures Remain: https://www.reuters.com/
    3. China Downplays Impact of Trump Tariffs on Economic Recovery: https://www.reuters.com/
    4. China Q1 GDP Growth Tops Expectations, but US Tariff Shock Looms Large: https://www.reuters.com/
14. CNBC
    1. China's Property Market Edges Toward an Inflection Point: https://www.cnbc.com/
    2. Chinese Factories are Stopping Production and Looking for New Markets as U.S. Tariffs Bite: https://www.cnbc.com/
    3. China Rolls Out Employment Support and Hints at More Stimulus as U.S. Tensions Escalate: https://www.cnbc.com/
15. China Daily
    1. China to Roll Out Measures to Keep Employment, Economy Stable: Official: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/