Moldova's Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

Growing demand, driven by improved credit conditions and an influx of refugees into the country, is set against a continued shortfall in housing supply in the Moldovan market, leading to a surge in sales prices and rents in the capital and beyond.  

This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of Moldova’s housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Moldova's real estate market is demonstrating a strong recovery following a period of stagnation brought on by economic challenges and subdued demand in 2022 and 2023. As of the third quarter of 2024, the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Chisinau, published by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), reported a significant year-on-year increase of 18.49% (12.82% adjusted for inflation).

Data Source: NBM.

The marked rise in property prices is attributed to several interrelated factors. A persistent shortfall in housing supply has been met with growing demand, driven by improved credit conditions and regulatory changes set to take effect in 2025, which will restrict cash payments. The Association of Real Estate Agencies, as cited by Proimobil, estimates that demand exceeds supply by 20-30%. Moreover, the limited availability of alternative investment options has led many to purchase additional residential properties for rental income rather than turning to financial instruments or savings deposits.

According to data from Acces Imobil real estate company, apartment prices in Chisinau reached a record EUR 1,540 (USD 1,666) per square meter by the close of 2024, reflecting a 43.93% increase compared to EUR 1,070 (USD 1,157) per square meter in 2023. Real estate specialist Victor Cernomorcenco noted that the price increase in the first half of the year was driven by a limited supply of apartments for sale, while demand spiked in the second half following the introduction of the Prima Casă Plus program offering government-guaranteed loans to qualifying citizens.

Note: Properties for sale in Moldova are quoted in EUR.
Data Source: Acces Imobil.

Market experts predict continued growth in property prices in Chisinau. Vlad Musteață, Director of Proimobil, emphasized that limited issuance of construction permits is likely to sustain upward price trends across new developments and other real estate segments, including land and houses. Piotr Oleinik, Director of Nika Imobil, shared a similar perspective, stating: "The price growth trend is expected to continue, reflecting stable market conditions. While external factors such as macroeconomic or political changes could influence the market, the current trajectory suggests sustained and steady development in the real estate sector."

Historic Perspective:

Key Milestones Behind the Surge of Chisinau's Apartment Prices

Apartment prices in Chisinau have experienced significant fluctuations over the past decade, according to Acces Imobil specialists who analyzed the evolution of prices in the capital. Following the bankruptcy of major construction companies in the early 2010s, the market stabilized between 2014 and 2017, adjusting to new conditions. During this period, prices saw only modest annual inflation-related adjustments. Smaller construction companies entered the market, focusing on building compact apartments to cater to a broader buyer profile, diverging from the high-priced "elite" properties popular in the early 2000s. Although mortgages began to gain traction as a means of financing real estate purchases, strict lending conditions limited their accessibility.

The landscape shifted notably between 2018 and 2019 with the introduction of the state-backed Prima Casă program. This initiative allowed citizens to secure mortgage loans with reduced down payments and capped annual effective interest rates. The program's success transformed the mortgage market, prompting banks to ease lending conditions. As a result, approximately 30-40% of all apartment purchases were financed through mortgages, spurring an annual price increase of around EUR 40 (USD 47) per square meter - substantially higher than the EUR 10-15 (USD 13-17) per square meter growth seen earlier. During this period, smaller construction firms expanded, competition intensified, and the market diversified with offerings spanning affordable, mid-range, and premium segments. Concurrently, internal migration and financial inflows into Chisinau from both within Moldova and abroad accelerated.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted the market. Investors, gripped by uncertainty, sought to withdraw funds from ongoing projects, delaying new construction starts. Simultaneously, consumer preferences shifted toward detached homes, duplexes, and larger apartments, driven by a desire for more spacious living environments. As the deferred demand from lockdowns surged, apartment prices in Chisinau increased rapidly - by EUR 110-145 (USD 119-172) per square meter annually.

The onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 brought additional challenges. A large influx of refugees exerted immense pressure on the rental market, leading to a doubling of rents. Construction companies faced material shortages and soaring costs, which inflated the prices of unfinished apartments. Meanwhile, extraordinarily high inflation deterred long-term investments, causing a sharp drop in sales transactions and the withdrawal of many small investors from the market. Expensive loans further reduced the prevalence of mortgage-financed home purchases.

In 2023, inflationary pressures continued to drive home prices upward, with only a gradual easing observed in the latter half of the year. By 2024, reduced mortgage rates stimulated demand amid a constrained supply of apartments, pushing Chisinau's average apartment price to a record high of EUR 1,540 (USD 1,666) per square meter.

Apartment Prices in Chisinau:

Demand Highlights:

Improved Lending Conditions Boost Property Sales

Following a significant decline in 2022 due to the onset of conflict in Ukraine, unprecedented inflation, and an unfavorable economic and psychological climate for long-term investments, Moldova's residential property market showed signs of recovery. In the first three quarters of 2024, a total of 24,324 residential units - including apartments and detached houses - were sold nationwide, reflecting a 12.84% year-on-year increase in transactions compared to the same period in 2023, according to the figures from the Real Estate Cadaster of Moldova (IPCBI).

Chisinau and its suburbs accounted for over half (53%) of all sales. In the capital, apartment transactions rose 8.54% year-on-year, while detached house transactions surged by 34.07%, underscoring a notable resurgence in buyer activity.

Data Sources: IPCBI, ASP.

Market experts attribute this uptick primarily to improved credit conditions. "With the decrease in inflation, mortgage rates have fallen significantly, from an annual percentage rate (APR) of approximately 14% in 2022-2023 to 7-8% in 2024. As a result, many who had postponed purchasing decisions due to financial constraints have entered the market this year," explains Victor Cernomorcenco, a specialist at Acces Imobil. Additionally, the government's Prima Casă Plus program, offering more attractive lending conditions, has further bolstered transaction volumes. While in 2023, only 20% of apartments sold in Chisinau were financed through mortgages, in the first three quarters of 2024, this figure surpassed 40%.

Residential units sold with mortgage financing:

Looking ahead, stable property price increases and declining cost of credit are expected to sustain buyer activity. "In the current market conditions, where price increases outpace interest rates, purchasing property is more economically advantageous than saving or renting. If these favorable factors remain unchanged, we expect sustained market activity in the near future," Piotr Oleinik, director of Nika Imobil, commented to news portal Point.

Supply Highlights:

New Supply Constrained by Reduced Permit Approvals

The supply of new residential units in Moldova continues to weaken. After a modest rebound in 2023 from record-low levels in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (NBS Moldova) reported the number of new dwellings completed in the country dropped by 67% year-on-year during January-September 2024. This decline reflects the longer-term impact of fewer building permits issued in preceding years. "Rapid increases of construction costs and land prices in 2022, coupled with stricter requirements for project development, have limited the issuance of new construction permits," notes the latest Financial Stability Report by the NBM.

Data Source: NBS.

Regionally, the most severe decline in completions was recorded in the Chisinau region, which experienced a 74% year-on-year drop, followed by the Northern region (-64%) and the Center region (-33%). In contrast, the South region and ATU Gagauzia reported positive dynamics.

Number of new residential units completed by region:

The downward trend in completions is expected to continue as the number of residential building permits issued - a key indicator for future construction activity - continues to fall. During the first nine months of 2024, a total of 1,641 residential permits were granted nationwide, representing a 3.19% year-on-year decrease, according to the NBS Moldova figures.

Data Source: NBS Moldova.

Chisinau municipality, which accounted for approximately 37% of the total permits issued, recorded the steepest regional decline, with a 15.80% year-on-year drop. "Currently, developers face limited opportunities to acquire land, either through city hall auctions or private sales. New supply is thus shrinking," explained real estate expert Radu Şitov in comments to NewsMaker.

Number of building permits issued by region:

Rental Market:

Strong Growth in Rents Fueled by Increased Demand and Lacking Supply

The rental market in Moldova in the last several years has tilted notably towards demand, as the influx of foreign nationals since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 further shrunk the available offer already limited due to constraints in new development, which, in turn, led to a sharp acceleration of rental inflation. In 2024, the rent component of the consumer price index (CPI) reported by the NBS Moldova significantly outpaced the growth of the all-items CPI, mostly recently reported at 18.2% in November.

"Prices have increased because demand has grown a lot, while supply has remained the same. And it is absorbed by a specific type of demand, we are talking about people who come from Ukraine for a short period - two or three weeks, a month or two. These prices are set for such tenants," said a director of a local real estate agency, quoted by TV8 early in the year.

Data Source: NBS Moldova.

According to the analysis from the Acces Imobil real estate company, average apartment rents in the capital city of Chisinau have increased 25-30% in 2024 compared to 2022-2023 levels. The experts attribute this growth to strong demand exceeding the available supply, as well as an increase in property sales prices and the overall impact of inflation.

The agency also points out that apartment rents in the capital can range from EUR 200 to as high as EUR 3,000 a month, depending on location, size, condition of the property, and amenities on offer.

The most expensive area is traditionally the Center sector, with higher rents also observed along the major streets, near parks and lakes in other city sectors.

According to the research carried out by the Global Property Guide in January 2025, gross rental yields for residential units in Chișinău averaged 8.38%. Regionally, the highest yields among the assessed districts in Chișinău were observed in the Center sector (8.42%), Râșcani (8.93%), and Botanica (8.01%).

As of 2023, Nika Imobil real estate agency estimated about 60% of the Chisinau rental apartment market to be made up of economy class properties in the commuter areas of the city, with comfort class and business class apartments representing about 20% of the market each.

Average apartment rents in Chisinau (as reported by Acces Imobil):

Looking into the future, further expansion of domestic demand for rental properties in Moldova can be anticipated, as well as continued formalization of the market, which is still largely unregulated, with many owners renting out their properties unofficially.

"Currently, we have a strong increase in demand for rented apartments with a very weak supply. Twenty years ago, only 6 percent of families were renting, now it is 15 percent, in the coming years it will increase, it will tend towards the European average," economic expert Veaceslav Ioniță said to TV8 in August 2024.

At the same time, according to Ioniță, figures from the State Tax Service show a continuously increasing number of rental contracts registered and income tax collected from individuals renting out their apartments. "Income tax receipts from individuals leasing real estate increased by 34.1% in the first seven months of 2024 and amounted to 40.9 million lei, compared to the same period in 2023. As a result of the actions taken in the first seven months of 2024, 14,677 real estate leasing contracts were registered, or 10.3% more than in the same period in 2023,"  he said.

Mortgage Market:

Reduced Interest Rates Revived Lending Activity

After peaking at 21.50% in the fall of 2022 during the period of particularly high inflation, the NBM monetary policy rate was cut significantly in 2023 and early 2024 and has stabilized at 3.60% since May 2024. At the most recent policy meeting in December 2024, the NBM Executive Board unanimously voted to maintain the base rate at the same level while reducing the required reserve ratio of funds attracted in MDL and foreign currencies. "The National Bank of Moldova adopted this decision in the context of the further transmission of the effects of previous monetary policy decisions, given the lags related to their transmission," said the central bank's release on the decision.

Data Source: NBM.

The consecutive cuts in the base rate applied to the main monetary policy operations over the prior periods reflected in the downward trend of interest rates on loans granted in national currency, including real estate loans to individuals. The weighted average interest rate on new mortgages in MDL, as reported by the NBM, reached 6.89% in November 2024, notably down from 8.84% and 12.89% previously recorded during the same period in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The same trend was observed for loans of various term periods.

Moldova's mortgage loan interest rates:

Interest rates on real estate loans to individuals, monthly weighted average:

The reduction of mortgage interest rates, which have now effectively returned to the pre-2022 baseline, revived the lending activity in Moldova, with the nominal volume of new real estate loans extended to individuals picking up significantly in 2024. The NBM reported MDL 7.05 billion (USD 390.2 million) in new mortgages issued between January and November, which not only exceeded the full-year volume recorded in 2023 by 111.7% but was also 35.1% above the previous lending peak of 2021. The share of real estate credit in total new loans extended to individuals in Moldova grew from 25.6% in 2023 to 36.1% in the eleven months of 2024.

Data Source: NBM.

The development of the mortgage market in Moldova in recent years has been stimulated by the Prima Casă (First Home) program, which offers government-guaranteed loans to qualifying citizens. Initially launched in 2018, the program has been consequently extended several times, facilitating home acquisition for over 8,000 households.

In July 2024, the Government of Moldova announced legislative amendments aiming to improve the accessibility of the program and offer more advantageous conditions for homebuyers. By lifting the employment in Moldova requirement, the amended Prima Casă Plus program will become available to wider groups of citizens, such as freelancers, lawyers, artists, and others. In addition, the amendments increase the maximum price of property that can be purchased from MDL 1 million (about USD 55 thousand) to MDL 2.5 million (about USD 138 thousand) and increase the maximum loan period from 25 to 30 years. The amount of guarantee provided by the government for housing outside Chisinau will increase from 50% to 65-70% of the loan balance (depending on location), which aims to improve access to decent housing for families in rural areas and support regional development.

As of November 2024, the total value of outstanding loans to individuals for purchasing or building real estate, based on the banking sector balance reported by the NBM, reached MDL 17.9 billion (USD 988.8 million), a 34.5% increase since the end of the previous year. At the same time, the relative size of the market remains limited. Compared to the national economy, it amounted to just 4.4% of the GDP at current prices in 2023.

Data Sources: NBM, NBS Moldova.

Socio-Economic Context:

Economic Recovery Continues Amid Exposure to External Risks

Moldova continues economic recovery from the impact of a series of shocks related to the war in neighboring Ukraine, rising energy prices, and a severe drought. After contracting in 2022, the economy returned to expansion, with the real GDP growth reaching 0.7% in 2023 and an estimated 2.6% in 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) growth projections for Moldova currently stand at 3.7% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, which is in line with the European Commission forecast, expecting growth supported by stronger domestic demand to gain pace over the forecast period and reach 3.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.

On the back of falling global food and energy prices and the previous tightening of monetary policy, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the country has dropped from the exceptional height of 28.6% in 2022 to 13.4% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024, according to the IMF data, thus returning to the central bank's target range of 5% +/- 1.5 pps. "Over the entire forecast period [Q4 2024 to Q3 2026], the annual inflation rate will be positioned close to the target of 5.0 percent and will remain within the variation range throughout the forecast horizon," said the NBM in their most recent inflation report. The IMF projections also expect inflation in Moldova to remain at 5% in 2025 and 2026.

At the same time, risks related to Moldova's energy security and, thus, import price volatility remain elevated despite the country's efforts to reduce its dependence on imports of Russian natural gas, notes the European Commission. Most recently, the disruption of gas transit through Ukraine after the expiration of the transit deal with Russia in January 2025 resulted in a large-scale energy crisis in Transdniestria.

Data Source: IMF.

In Moldova's labor market, continued robust employment growth and higher real incomes are set to continue boosting private consumption in 2025 and 2026, though the supportive effect of recent labor market reforms designed to encourage women's labor market participation may begin to taper off, according to the European Commission assessment. The unemployment in urban and rural areas alike has been on a downward trajectory since late 2023 and was most recently reported by the NBS Moldova at 3.6% nationwide in Q3 2024.

Data Source: NBS Moldova.

The long-term prospects for Moldova's development are now largely seen in the context of the ongoing EU integration process. At the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in March 2022, Moldova applied for EU membership and was granted candidate status in the summer of that year, with formal accession negotiations opening in June 2024. In October 2024, the country held a constitutional referendum (which affirmed the integration plans) and re-elected the pro-western president Maia Sandu for her second term.

In September 2024, Fitch Ratings assigned Moldova a 'B+' standing with a stable outlook, citing among the country's strengths its prudent and consistent policy mix, resilient banking sector, and demonstrated external support, including disbursements by the IMF, EU, and other official creditors.

At the same time, Moldova's continued exposure to geopolitical tensions in the region, consistent risk of destabilizing foreign interference in domestic politics, the frozen conflict with Transnistria, and energy-related vulnerabilities all remain substantial risks to the country's economic growth and EU accession process.

Sources:

1. Government of the Republic of Moldova
   1. First Home Plus: Government Extends Accessibility Of Program… https://gov.md/
   2. Prima Casă Program Overview (RO): https://primacasa.gov.md/
2. National Bank of Moldova (NBM)
   1. NBM Interest Rates: https://bnm.md/
   2. Monetary Policy Decision, 05.12.2024: https://bnm.md/
   3. Developments in Loan Market in November 2024 (RO): https://www.bnm.md/
   4. Official Exchange Rates: https://www.bnm.md/
   5. Residential Property Price Index (RPPI), 3rd quarter 2024: https://www.bnm.md/
   6. Financial Stability Report, 2023 (RO): https://bnm.md/
3. National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (NBS Moldova)
   1. Housing Fund Related Statistics: https://statistica.gov.md/
   2. Press Release: Building Permits Issued in January-September 2024 (RO): https://statistica.gov.md/
   3. Consumer Price Indices: https://statistica.gov.md/
   4. Employment and Unemployment: https://statistica.gov.md/
4. Real Estate Cadaster of Moldova (IPCBI)
   1. Information on Real Estate Registrations: https://ipcbi.gov.md/
5. European Council
   1. Moldova: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/
6. European Commission
   1. European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2024: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
   2. Moldova: https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/
7. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: Republic of Moldova: https://www.imf.org/
8. Fitch Ratings
   1. Fitch Assigns Moldova 'B+'; Outlook Stable: https://www.fitchratings.com/
   2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
   3. U.S. Dollars to Euro Spot Exchange Rate (annual): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
9. Acces Imobil
   
   1. Apartment Price Trends in Chisinau (2015-2024): https://accesimobil.md/
   2. Analysis: Evolution of Apartment Prices in Chisinau (2007-2023): https://accesimobil.md/
   3. Analysis: The Number of Apartments Sold in Chisinau Increased by 24% in Sem I 2024: https://accesimobil.md/
   4. Analysis of Apartment Rental Prices in Chisinau, 2024-2025: https://accesimobil.md/
   5. Why Rent Prices Exploded in Chisinau: https://accesimobil.md/
   6. Apartments Purchased Through Prima Casa, 2018-2023 (RO): https://accesimobil.md/
10. Proimobil
    1. New homes in Chisinau Are Becoming Less And Less Affordable (RO): https://proimobil.md/
    2. Real Estate Market in 2024. Forecasts for 2025 (RO): https://proimobil.md/
11. Nika Imobil
    1. Review of the Real Estate Market in Chisinau 2023: https://www.nikaimobil.md/
12. The Guardian
    1. Moldovans Back Joining the EU by Razor-Thin Majority: https://www.theguardian.com/
13. Reuters
    1. Moldova's Pro-Western Sandu Claims Election Win After Meddling Allegations: https://www.reuters.com/
    2. Thousands Left Without Heat or Gas in Moldova's Pro-Russian Separatist Region: https://www.reuters.com/
14. IPN Press Agency
    1. Limits On Cash Payments From January 1, 2025: https://www.ipn.md/
15. Point
    1. Mortgages Revived the Real Estate Market in Moldova (RU): https://point.md/
16. NewsMaker
    1. Why Apartments in Chisinau Have Become More Expensive (RO): https://newsmaker.md/
17. Radio Moldova
    1. Moldova: First Home Program Expands Eligibility: https://radiomoldova.md/
    2. Moldova's Energy Crisis: Challenges and Solutions in Transnistria: https://radiomoldova.md/
18. TV8
    1. Amid the War in Ukraine, Rental Housing Prices in Moldova are Breaking Records (RU): https://tv8.md/
    2. Rents are Getting More Expensive in the Capital (RO): https://tv8.md/