Poland's Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

In the environment of improved financing conditions and persistently high inventory levels, the Polish housing market continues to rebalance, with signs of price growth stabilization observed in both sales and rental segments.

This extended overview from Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the Polish housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

After a period of rapid acceleration at the turn of 2023 and 2024, Poland's housing market is now showing signs of stabilization, with annual house price growth moderating for the fifth consecutive quarter. In Q3 2025, the average price of existing homes sold across Poland's seven largest urban markets, including Warsaw, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław, stood at PLN 13,382 (USD 3,687) per square meter, a marginal 0.91% year-on-year decline according to the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The primary market showed a similar subdued trend, with average prices rising by just 0.11% year-on-year to PLN 14,254 (USD 3,928) per square meter.

Poland's house price annual change:

Note: Poland's National House Price Index
Data Source: Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP).

Regional disparities remain pronounced. Warsaw continued to lead with average prices of PLN 16,405 (USD 4,520) per square meter on the secondary market and PLN 16,294 (USD 4,490) for new dwellings. Kraków retained its position as the second most expensive market, while Łódź remained among the more affordable major cities.

Average prices of transacted dwellings in key submarkets:

This period of price stabilization coincides with significant regulatory changes. The mandatory price-disclosure rules introduced in September 2025 require developers to publish current prices and full price histories for every listed dwelling. The reform prompted what analysts described as a "wave of corrections" in developer catalogs, as companies adjusted their price lists to align with the new requirements.

According to JLL and RynekPierwotny.pl, around 25% of primary-market listings saw price adjustments in August-September 2025. However, the net impact on average asking prices was negligible: reductions on previously overpriced units were offset by increases on undervalued ones, improving overall transparency without materially influencing market-level price trends.

Looking ahead, Cushman & Wakefield anticipates that a moderate upward trajectory in residential prices is likely to persist into the medium term as constrained supply and resilient end-user demand remain key anchors for the market. "Considering the tightening regulatory framework for developers, persistent constraints on land availability coupled with escalating land costs, and － critically － the absence of alternative investment vehicles in Poland comparable to REITs in other markets, residential property continues to stand out as a preferred asset class," the report noted.

Historic Perspective:

Long-Term Price Trajectories Driven by Policy, Affordability, and Structural Supply

From the mid-2000s onward, Poland's housing market moved through several clear cycles. The 2006-2007 period marked a sharp pre-crisis upswing, with prices in the largest cities rising rapidly as strong post-accession economic growth, expanding mortgage availability, and limited supply elasticity in major urban areas amplified small shifts in rates and incomes.

The downturn arrived in 2008-2009, when global turbulence, tighter lending standards, and weaker economic conditions pushed the market into a prolonged correction. Between 2009 and 2013, restricted mortgage availability and a sizeable stock of unsold dwellings carried over from the boom continued to weigh on prices. In several major cities, unsold new units exceeded twice the level considered "balanced," prompting developers to scale back new projects.

Between 2014 and 2016, price dynamics stabilized and returned to modest growth as excess stock was absorbed, labour-market conditions improved, and policy rates declined. This set the stage for a stronger 2017-2019 upswing, with annual growth reaching high single- to low double-digit levels. Rising incomes, record-low unemployment, and very low real interest rates supported demand, while structural constraints, such as scarce well-located land and a high share of cash or low-leverage buyers, reinforced upward pressure.

The COVID-19 period brought an even steeper increase. In 2020-2021, annual price growth consistently remained around 10-12%, supported by near-zero interest rates, very low deposit yields, resilient household incomes, and pandemic-related shifts in housing preferences.

From 2022 onward, the market entered a more complex phase. Nominal prices continued to rise at double-digit rates in 2022, but mortgage affordability deteriorated sharply as interest rates increased, leading to a significant drop in lending volumes. In 2023-2024, the introduction of the government's "Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%" (Safe 2% Loan) for first-time buyers temporarily reignited mortgage demand and contributed to another acceleration in prices, particularly in the largest cities.

As the programme was phased out at the end of 2023 and its backlog cleared in 2024, demand became increasingly constrained by high borrowing costs and already elevated price levels. By 2025, annual growth in existing-home prices had slowed markedly, signaling a shift from a subsidy-driven expansion to a more affordability-sensitive phase of the cycle.

20-year annual house price change (based on end-of-year Average Transaction Prices of Existing Properties in 7 cities and Consumer Price Index):

Residential construction activity dynamic (started and completed dwellings, and the number of building permits granted):

Data Source: GUS.

Demand Highlights:

End-User Purchases Lead Market Stabilization Amid High Inventory Levels

Primary market sales in Poland are beginning to show signs of stabilization. According to JLL data cited by the NBP, 29,900 new residential units were sold across the six largest markets in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a marginal 0.43% year-on-year decline. While cumulative results remained broadly unchanged, both Q2 and Q3 recorded positive year-on-year growth, supported by interest rate cuts that reduced mortgage costs and by the low base that followed subdued sales in 2024.

Market activity in Q3 also reflected a degree of buyer repositioning after the June 2025 announcement that the government was withdrawing from the "First Keys" (Pierwsze Klucze) initiative and its mortgage subsidies. Some households that had been awaiting clarity on the program's future moved ahead with transactions already underway, including buyers with signed developer agreements or extended unit reservations. Stronger sales were additionally supported by cash buyers, who increasingly anticipate that lower mortgage rates in the coming quarters may draw more purchasers back into the market.

Investment demand, however, remained weak. "The limited number of investment buyers is linked both to planned tax increases on additional properties and to geopolitical uncertainties. This trend is likely to be long-lasting," commented JLL.

Note: Aggregated data for Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tri-City, Poznań and Łódź.
Data Source: NBP based on JLL data.

Regionally, the strongest increases in new-unit sales in Q3 2025 were recorded in the Tri-City (33.33%) and Warsaw (26.67%). JLL noted that "the supply-to-sales ratio is currently most favorable in these markets," indicating conditions close to balance. In the remaining four cities, however, challenges persist, particularly in Łódź, where the number of completed but unsold units has reached a record high.

Number of new dwellings sold by submarket:

Looking ahead, experts expect further growth in sales in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026, supported by potential additional interest rate cuts and lower mortgage costs. Higher sales volumes are anticipated to gradually improve the supply-to-sales ratio and help reduce today's historically high inventory levels. "Further improvements of financing conditions would result in an increase in demand, especially as the current large supply of apartments makes it easier to find suitable housing", noted CBRE. JLL forecasts a further two to three rate cuts over the period, while cautioning that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 5% in the medium term.

Sales are expected to be driven primarily by buyers purchasing apartments with cash or credit for their own use, rather than as rental investments. The main downside risk stems from geopolitical developments that could weaken buyer sentiment.

Supply Highlights:

Forward Supply Declines as Developers Pause New Investment Decisions

Residential construction activity in Poland continued to soften in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a more cautious stance among developers. Statistics Poland (GUS) reported 144,381 completed dwellings in the first nine months of the year, a marginal 0.40% year-on-year decline that points to the ongoing delivery of earlier-launched projects. In contrast, forward-looking indicators showed a more significant slowdown: housing starts fell by 8.53% year-on-year, and building permits declined by 13.36%, underscoring a deliberate reduction in new investment activity.

Data Source: GUS.

Analysts widely attribute this shift to persistently high inventory levels. The Polish Association of Developers (PZFD) highlighted that the volume of unsold units remains close to historical highs, which "encourages more cautious initiation of new projects." Developers are prioritizing the sale of existing stock and adopting a more selective approach to launching new schemes, especially in oversupplied submarkets. This trend is also reflected in a growing share of "parked" permits: as Otodom's market research director Katarzyna Kuniewicz noted, "the share of permits being put on hold is higher," with developers waiting for clearer pricing conditions and regulatory stability before moving ahead.

Data Source: Statistics Poland.

Structural pressures continue to reinforce this slowdown. The Polish Association of Construction Employers pointed to persistent labor shortages and rising wage costs, noting that "there is a shortage of workers, and those who are available are becoming increasingly expensive." Major developers also cite elevated construction costs, limited land availability in the largest cities, and ongoing changes in planning and regulatory frameworks as further reasons for limiting the scale of new investments. As Robyg observed, "the pace of new investment growth is clearly slowing" amid reduced margins and increased uncertainty.

While completions remain high in 2025, the drop in starts and permits suggests that new housing supply is likely to tighten from 2026 onward. Although improving financing conditions and potential rate cuts could support a gradual increase in project launches, developers are expected to maintain a measured, risk-averse approach, focusing on absorbing existing inventory before committing to major new investments.

Rental Market:

Rental Growth is Stabilizing as Homeownership Becomes More Accessible

Following the expiration of multiple shocks that had previously affected Poland's rental market (the pandemic, the influx of refugees, and the housing boom), rental inflation has stabilized at moderate levels, along with the overall stabilization of the macroeconomic landscape in the country. The most recent data from Eurostat shows a 4.4% annual increase in the actual rentals for the housing component of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in October 2025, with only marginal fluctuations observed in the growth rate over the previous twelve months. It continues to trend above the overall inflation in the country; however, the all-items HICP registered only a 2.9% increase over the same period.

Poland's rent price index:

Note: Poland's Rent Price Index, % change 1 yr
Data Source: OECD.

"The sharp rental growth dynamics in Poland have eased － over the past two years, growth has remained steady and predictable, largely tracking inflation," summarized the Q3 2025 market assessment from Cushman & Wakefield.

Data Source: Eurostat.

In nominal terms, according to the October 2025 rental market report from Otodom, the average asking rent in Poland stood at PLN 3,641 (USD 997) - only about 1% higher than during the same period last year, which is a stark contrast to the turbulent years of 2021-2023, when asking prices fluctuated significantly due to external factors.

Regionally, the average asking rents continue to demonstrate significant variety among the Polish cities, ranging from PLN 1,964 (USD 538) a month in Kielce to PLN 4,961 (USD 1,359) in Warsaw, with the capital maintaining its leading position in terms of rent (despite a symbolic year-on-year correction of -0.4%), followed by by Kraków, Tri-City, and Wrocław.

Overall, the platform's analysis suggests that the rental market in Poland is in a stabilization phase, as falling interest rates, combined with increased availability of mortgages, are creating an increasingly attractive alternative to renting, essentially driving the outflow of tenants to the buyers' market.

"In the coming months, we can expect a further deepening of the stabilization trend, and even a slight weakening of the rental market. <…> In the long term, the rental market will have to adapt to the new lending reality. This probably means further price stabilization and even price corrections in some segments, especially in cities with a developed housing market and high developer activity," the Otodom report concluded.

In parallel, gross rental yields for apartments in Poland averaged 6.17%, according to research by Global Property Guide conducted in September 2025, only slightly up from 6.03% reported a year prior. 2024. Among the monitored regional submarkets, the highest average yields were observed in Warsaw (7.07%), Wrocław (6.47%), and Bydgoszcz (6.42%), while the lowest potential performance was estimated in Kraków (5.59%).

Average asking rent in key submarkets:

In general, as of 2024, 12.9% of Polish households were tenants, according to Eurostat figures. Apart from additional demand in metropolitan areas generated by Ukrainian refugees and other foreign migrants in recent years, rental demand in the country is largely driven by young people migrating to major cities for higher education or job opportunities.

On the supply side of the Polish rental market, the role of institutional landlords representing the dynamically evolving private rental sector (PRS) continues to gain prominence. As of Q3 2025, Cushman & Wakefield estimates the country's operational PRS stock at over 23,000 apartments in the largest cities (38% of those concentrated in Warsaw), with another 20,000 to be added in the coming years by already announced projects.

Mortgage Market:

Interest Rates Decline Gradually, Demand for Loans Continues to Grow

Prompted by a favorable inflation forecast and weaker economic activity observed in the country at the beginning of the year, the NBP began rapidly easing its monetary policy in May 2025, with six cuts made to its policy benchmarks since then, eventually bringing the reference rate from 5.75% to the current level of 4.00%.

Poland's mortgage loan interest rates:

Note: Average Floating Interest Rates for House Purchases, PLN-denominated
Data Source: Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP).

Following the most recent 25 b.p. cut announced in early December, however, local experts anticipate the regulator will take a pause for a time before making any further moves. "The outlook is good... I think the (Monetary Policy) Council will want to move to a wait-and-see approach to see how all the cuts we've made are working, and then proceed with further cuts. <…> The current rate of 4.0% is perfect at this point. Whether we can go down to 3.75 or 3.50 depends on other council members... There definitely won't be any sudden moves," the NBP governor, Adam Glapinski, commented at a press conference, as quoted by Reuters.

Data Source: NBP.

Along with the downward adjustment of the NBP reference rate, the average interest rates on loans to households for house purchase in Poland have been falling in recent months. The average interest rate on PLN-denominated new housing loans continued to decrease gradually from the late-2022 peak levels and was most recently reported at 6.49% in October 2025. For outstanding PLN-denominated housing loans, the average interest rate reached 6.84%, also down from the level observed during the same period a year prior.

Average interest rates on PLN-denominated loans to households for house purchase:

The continued decline in interest rates on housing loans, as well as general easing of lending standards on loans to households implemented, by banks across the country in the second half of 2025, according to the NBP survey, further boosted the demand for mortgages in Poland, despite the government withdrawal from the subsidized programs which had previously supported the market in 2023-2024.

Based on the figures reported by the NBP, the total value of PLN-denominated new loans for house purchase issued between January and October 2025 reached PLN 80.1 billion (USD 22.0 billion), a 12.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Data Source: NBP.

The notable increase in new lending volumes since last year reversed the overall shrinking of the mortgage market in Poland. Based on the banking sector data published by the NBP, after decreasing by 7.8% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023, the housing loan stock in the country registered a 4.8% year-on-year growth in 2024. As of October 2025, the total value of outstanding housing loans in Poland stood at PLN 490.4 billion (USD 134.3 billion), of which 96.1% were PLN-denominated loans and 1.4% were loans denominated in foreign currencies.

At the same time, the relative size of the market, represented by the ratio of outstanding housing loans to GDP at current prices, continued to decline, dropping from an estimated 20.0% in 2020 to 12.8% in 2024. According to the most recent Eurostat figures, 11.7% of Polish households are homeowners with an outstanding mortgage or housing loan.

Data Sources: NBP, Statistics Poland.

Socio-Economic Context:

Growth Remains Robust, Fiscal Pressures Persist

After a notable slowdown to just 0.1% annual growth in 2023, Poland's economy demonstrated an impressive recovery (real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024), driven by rising real wages and strong private consumption, increased spending backed by recently unlocked NexGen EU Funds (NGEU), and receding inflationary pressures. The European Commission now expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, while the most recent projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stand at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively.

In parallel, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the country has fallen steeply from the average annual level of 11.5% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024 and was most recently reported by Statistics Poland at 2.4% in November 2025, well within the NBP's target range of 2.5% +/- 1 percentage point. The European Commission projects the indicator at 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.

Data Source: IMF.

Employment in the Polish labor market fell in 2024 but is projected to remain broadly stable over the forecast horizon. The nationwide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, as reported by Eurostat, was 3.2% in October 2025 and is expected to remain around 3% in the next two years, according to the European Commission.

Data Source: Eurostat.

Overall, according to a recent assessment by the IMF, Poland's economy is now performing near potential, and its near-term growth outlook remains positive; meanwhile, rising fiscal vulnerabilities continue to present a challenge over the medium term.

The country's fiscal deficit is projected to widen from 6.5% of GDP in 2024 to 6.8% in 2025 due to higher public spending driven by increased social benefits, increased salaries in the public sector, elevated costs of servicing the public debt, and high defense investments. According to the European Commission's assessment, fiscal consolidation is expected to advance somewhat in the next two years, with the deficit moderating to 6.1% of GDP by 2027. Nevertheless, Poland's debt-to-GDP ratio is set to increase over the forecast horizon, from 55.1% of GDP in 2024 to 69.2% of GDP in 2027.

Based on the rapid increase of the government debt and notable deterioration of public finances, in September 2025, Fitch Ratings revised Poland's outlook from stable to negative, while affirming its 'A-' standing. The agency also pointed out domestic political challenges among the factors currently impacting the outlook.

"In an environment of high political polarization, as demonstrated at the May presidential election, the influence of domestic political considerations on policy choices is likely to increase ahead of the next parliamentary elections, due by October 2027. This could reduce the room to implement politically challenging measures before 2028, including those supporting fiscal consolidation," said the credit action commentary from Fitch.

Earlier this year, the presidential elections in Poland went into a run-off (after the first round in May failed to determine a winner between the leading contenders), resulting in the narrow victory of the right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki.

Sources:

1. Statistics Poland (GUS)
   1. Residential Construction in the Period of January-September 2025: https://stat.gov.pl/
   2. Poland Macroeconomic Indicators: https://stat.gov.pl/
   3. Flash Estimate of the Consumer Price Index in November 2025: https://stat.gov.pl/
2. National Bank of Poland (NBP)
   1. House Prices Database: https://nbp.pl/
   2. Information on Apartment Prices and the Situation on the Residential and Commercial Real Estate Market in Poland in Q2 2025 (PL): https://nbp.pl/
   3. NBP Interest Rates: https://nbp.pl/
   4. Interest Rate Statistics: https://nbp.pl/
   5. Banking Sector Financial Data: https://nbp.pl/
   6. Press Release from the Meeting of the Monetary Policy Council Held on 2-3 December 2025: https://nbp.pl/
   7. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://nbp.pl/
   8. Core Inflation: https://nbp.pl/
3. European Commission
   1. Economic Forecast for Poland: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
   2. Distribution of Population by Tenure Status, Type of Household, and Income group: https://ec.europa.eu/
   3. HICP - Monthly Data (Annual Rate of Change): https://ec.europa.eu/
   4. Unemployment by Sex and Age - Monthly Data: https://ec.europa.eu/
4. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: Poland: https://www.imf.org/
   2. Poland: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission: https://www.imf.org/
   3. 2024 Article IV Staff Report: https://www.imf.org/
5. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
   1. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2, Poland: https://www.oecd.org/
6. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
   1. Currency Conversions: US Dollar Exchange Rate: Average of Daily Rates: National Currency: USD for Poland: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
7. Polish Association of Developers (PZFD)
   1. Transparency of Housing Prices - New Obligations for Developers (PL): https://www.pzfd.pl/
8. JLL
   1. Residential Market in Poland, Q3 2025 (PL): https://www.jll.com/
9. Cushman & Wakefield
   1. Marketbeat Poland: Residential Sector Q3 2025: https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/
10. CBRE
    1. Warsaw and Poland Living Figures Q3 2025: https://www.cbre.com/
11. Otodom
    1. Rental Market Report - October 2025 (PL): https://www.otodom.pl/
12. Fitch Ratings
    1. Fitch Revises Poland's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'A-': https://www.fitchratings.com/
13. Reuters
    1. Polish Central Bank Likely Going Into Wait-and-See Mode After Cut, Governor Says: https://www.reuters.com/
    2. Polish Nationalist Nawrocki Wins Presidency in Setback for Pro-EU Government: https://www.reuters.com/
14. Bank.pl
    1. Experts on the MPC Decision: After Intensive Rate Cuts, a Break at the Beginning of 2026, Then Slight Cuts (PL): https://bank.pl/
15. Strefa Inwestorów
    1. A Clear Rebound in Construction After the Summer Slowdown (PL): https://strefainwestorow.pl/
    2. Housing Construction is Slowing Down. New Investment is Falling (PL): https://strefainwestorow.pl/
16. Rzeczpospolita
    1. Transparency of Housing Prices. A Wave of Corrections by Developers (PL): https://www.rp.pl/
17. Business Insider
    1. Will There Be Subsidies for Mortgages? (PL): https://businessinsider.com.pl/
18. eRobocze.pl
    1. Construction Sector Requires Intervention (PL): https://erobocze.pl/
19. Forsal.pl
    1. The Monetary Policy Council Lowers Interest Rates, Poles Buy Apartments (PL): https://forsal.pl/
20. FXMAG
    1. Developers Released Housing Data. This Will Be the Time of Decline in Investment (PL): https://www.fxmag.pl/