As construction activity stalls, the Irish housing market continues to suffer from supply imbalance, putting upward pressure on home prices and rents, while mortgage rates remain elevated above the eurozone average.

This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of Ireland's housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Mortgage Market
• Rental Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

In Ireland, the residential property price index in the first four months of 2024 showed a year-on-year growth that gradually picked up pace from 5.36% (1.25% inflation-adjusted) in January and reached 7.82% (5.14% inflation-adjusted) in April, according to the latest data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) - making the beginning of this year a first annual increase period for the inflation-adjusted prices since November 2022.

Ireland house price annual change:

Ireland's house price annual change

This house price dynamic is also reflected in Q1 2024 report from the property website Daft.ie, showing the nationwide average asking price for a residential unit at € 326,469 (US$ 354,480), up by 5.8% year-on-year, and by 2% quarter-on-quarter - a notable acceleration from 3.1% year-on-year and -0.5% quarter-on-quarter previously recorded in Q1 2023.

According to Daft.ie data, the growth was observed in most regional submarkets, however, the intensity of the increase varied among the locations - Cork, Galway, Limerick, and Waterford all showing a much sharper upturn in listing prices than the capital city of Dublin.

Housing asking price dynamic in key submarkets:

Market analysis from Daft.ie identifies tightness in the availability of properties for sale as a major factor putting upward pressure on housing prices in Ireland and ties further evolution of pricing to supply: "Where it goes next will depend on how fast second-hand supply recovers."

While house prices increased, rent rates slowed down after a decade of almost uninterrupted growth, eventually bringing the rental yields slightly down from last year, according to research by the Global Property Guide conducted in February 2024. In Q1 2024, gross rental yields for apartments in Ireland averaged at 7.85%. The highest yields for 1-bedroom apartments were reported by Daft.ie in Limerick City (13%), followed by Waterford City (11.6%).

Residential sales have slowed down, affected by inflation and increased interest rates on loans. In April 2024, home sales in Ireland for the rolling 12 months came up to just over 72,800 units, a marginal increase against last year's results. This slowing dynamic has been observed in both new and existing home segments, as well as in the total value of residential property transactions.

Regional submarkets performed unevenly, with more substantial growth observed in the last 12 months in Cork and Galway, while Dublin remained stable.

Despite a marginal decrease registered in April 2024, interest rates on new housing loans in Ireland at 4.23% still notably exceeded the eurozone average, as well as comparable 2023 and 2022 levels. No clear shifts in the overall growth trend can be observed yet, although further cuts of the ECB repo rate can be expected to affect the Irish mortgage market later this year, along with other European countries.

In the meantime, more than 87% of Ireland's housing stock is occupied and the imbalance of demand and supply in the market continues to intensify. The Irish Government's plans to deliver over 33,050 new units by the end of the year are at risk, as the residential construction activity has slowed, showing a year-on-year fall in output in Q1 2024, including a 25.3% fall in housing unit completions in Dublin.

The overall resilience demonstrated by the Irish economy amid high inflation and raised interest rates keeps the outlook generally favorable. The country's real GDP declined by 3.2% in 2023, however, according to the European Commission analysis, this was a temporary contraction, as the economy already started to recover in Q1 2024 and is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025. At the same time, inflation in Ireland has been easing rapidly, reaching 2.6% year-on-year in April 2024 - the lowest rate since August 2021 - and is projected to decelerate further, although at a slower pace.

Historic Perspective: Longer Market Cycles with Sharp Fluctuations

After being known as one of Europe's poorest countries with high unemployment and mass emigration for almost two centuries, Ireland shifted gears in the 1990s, achieving over the next two decades a remarkable economic growth that has become referred to as the "Celtic Tiger". The term compared Ireland's rapid development to that of the so-called "East-Asian Tigers": Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong - all experiencing economic expansions in the 1980s and 1990s.

During that era, average home price in Ireland went up over 330% in the secondary market, and over 250% in the new housing market between 1996 and 2006, marking it as one of Europe's longest and biggest booms. However, when the global financial crisis hit, the market crashed into one of Europe's worst property busts, with nominal house prices falling 53% from their peak in 2007 to the lowest point in 2012. Construction activity drastically slowed down during this time as well: by 2012, the total number of planning permits issued dropped to just over 6,200 units, with only about 4,000 dwellings started, compared to nearly 78,000 units commenced annually at the height of the boom.

The market slowly started to recover in 2013, with house prices rising by 1.3% (0.8% inflation-adjusted), followed by the dramatic surge of 16.5% (16.3% inflation-adjusted) in 2014, mainly due to the overall Irish economy picking up pace and expanding by 8.8% in 2014 after 6 years of either decline or only slight growth not exceeding 2%. A strong growth of about 10% annually, on average, continued until 2019, when the dynamic slowed down to a 2.3% annual growth in prices (1.4% inflation-adjusted), reacting to the mortgage lending restrictions implemented by the Irish Government since 2015, as well as the overall uncertainty about Brexit. The volume of residential construction activity was also increasing during this time - up to over 38,000 authorized units and over 26,000 commenced units in 2019 - although, not nearly approaching the pre-crisis levels of the mid-2000s.

Amidst the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Irish house prices showed marginal growth of 0.3% (0.6% inflation-adjusted), but with the restrictions easing and overall economy improving, the increase accelerated to 8.3% (5.8% inflation-adjusted) and 12.3% (4.2% inflation-adjusted) in 2021 and 2022, respectively, while the construction activity stalled both in terms of authorizations and new dwellings started, widening the supply-demand gap in the market.

In 2023 the market decelerated sharply to only 3.1% annual growth in nominal house prices, which due to high inflation translated into an actual 3% fall. However, the most recent data indicates a return to the earlier trend in Ireland as the global economy stabilizes, with Q1 2024 showing year-on-year growth in house prices at 2.3% (2.7% inflation-adjusted) quarter-on-quarter and 6.3% (2.7% inflation-adjusted) year-on-year.

20-year annual house price change (based on annual residential property price index and consumer price index):

20-year construction activity dynamic (authorized and started housing units):

Data Source: CSO

Demand Highlights: Sales Growth Held Back by Inflation and Interest Rates

After the post-pandemic compensatory growth in sales, when the volume of residential property transactions grew from about 58,000 units in 2020 to about 73,000 units in 2022, the market has slowed down, affected by inflation and increased interest rates on loans.

According to the Central Statistics Office data, home sales in Ireland for the rolling 12 months were recorded in April 2024 at 72,878 units, a marginal 0.35% year-on-year increase, compared to a solid +5.93% at this time a year ago, and +16.17% two years ago.

Data Source: CSO

This slowing dynamic has been observed in both new and existing home segments, as well as in the total value of residential property transactions: € 24,413 million and 4.01% growth y-o-y in April 2024 (rolling 12 months), against 16.78% growth in April 2023, and 27.76% growth in April 2022.

In terms of housing sales volume and value, key regional submarkets performed unevenly in the last 12 months (April 2024), with more substantial growth observed in Cork and Galway, while Dublin remained stable.

Supply Highlights: Potential Stall in New Development and Intensifying Imbalance Between Demand and Supply

Two years ago, Census 2022 in Ireland reported a total housing stock of 2.1 million units, a more than 5.4% growth since the previous census in 2016. The largest increases were in the east of Ireland, primarily around Dublin. Of the reported stock, 87.4% of units were occupied (against 85.2% in 2016) and 7.7% were vacant (against 9.1% in 2016).The growing share of occupied housing units and declining vacant stock indicates the intensifying imbalance of demand and supply in the market. This trend was recently highlighted by property advisory firm Sherry FitzGerald, whose analysis in January 2024 revealed a 27% decline in available properties for sale since the same period of last year, and an even more pronounced 46% drop compared to January 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Marian Finnegan, managing director of Sherry FitzGerald, commented to The Irish Times: "This scarcity in housing options exacerbates the ongoing imbalance between housing demand and supply within Ireland, intensifying challenges for individuals and families seeking suitable housing."

The situation is not helped by the apparent slowing of residential construction activity. The Central Statistics Office figures show that output fell by more than 12% year-on-year in first three months of 2024, endangering the Irish Government's target of 33,450 units for the year. The decrease in completions was registered in six of the eight regions of Ireland including a 25.3% fall in Dublin, while increases occurred in the Midlands and South-East.

Analyzing the data, the head of research at BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland John McCartney said to The Irish Times that the previously noted rapid rise in home completions could "stall a bit in 2024″.

Data Source: CSO

At the same time, McCartney was more optimistic about the market in the longer perspective, saying: "The good news is commencements have been very strong in the opening months of this year, which should propel completions higher in 2025." According to the Central Statistics Office, commencement notices for over 32,000 units were filed in the first 5 months of 2024. The Irish Government's Housing for All strategy targets 36,100 new housing deliveries in 2025 and 36,900 in 2026.

In terms of geographic distribution of new development, the latest market review from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) mentions a much more condensed approach, compared to new completions over a decade ago, with a stronger concentration of new construction around Dublin, Cork, and Galway.

Mortgage Market: Elevated Interest Rates and Shrinking Buy-to-Let Loans Segment

Average mortgage rates in Ireland fell slightly in April 2024, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Ireland, down 0.05 p.p. from a 15-year high of 4.28% previously registered in February and March.

Despite this marginal decrease, at 4.23%, the average interest rate on new housing loans in April 2024 notably exceeded the 3.77% eurozone average, as well as comparable 2023 and 2022 levels.

Interest rates on new housing loans by initial rate fixation (IRF):

While no clear shifts in the overall growth trend can be observed yet, expectations are tied to further cuts of the ECB repo rate that was reduced by 0.25 p.p. in June after numerous consecutive increases over the last two years.

Daragh Cassidy, the head writer of the price comparison site Bonkers.ie, is quoted by The Irish Times saying: "Already the average first-time buyer can get a fixed rate of under 4 per cent with PTSB and Bank of Ireland for example. And of course, if the ECB cuts rates again over the coming months, which it probably will do at least once, that will hopefully put further downward pressure on mortgage rates."

Data Source: ECB

Similarly, the average interest rate for outstanding housing loans has shown year-on-year increase and was recorded in April 2024 at 3.70%, against 3.30% in April 2023 and 2.47% in April 2022.

"Many mortgage holders who took out a fixed rate over the past three or four years may be enjoying rates as low as 2 per cent or 3 per cent at present. But they'll still generally be faced with much higher rollover rates when they look to refix," said Daragh Cassidy of Bonkers.ie.

Interest rates on outstanding housing loans by original maturity:

Data Source: ECB

According to the data published by the Central Statistics Office, almost 63% or all home purchases in Ireland in 2021 were made with use of mortgage loans, a notable increase from about 49% a decade earlier in 2011.

To ensure sustainable lending standards, the Central Bank of Ireland has been implementing a system of mortgage measures. The latest version has been in effect since 2023 and includes the following key restrictions (applicable to most borrowers with certain exceptions):

• Loan-to-Income Limit (LTI) caps the amount that can be borrowed at 4 times gross income for first-time buyers and 3.5 times gross income for second- and subsequent-time buyers.
• Loan-to-Value Limit (LTV) sets the minimum deposit requirement at 10% for those buying housing for personal use, and at 30% for those buying to let.

The Irish government's containment measures combined with the global economic slowdown and growing interest rates resulted in the overall shrinking of the mortgage market in the recent years from 65% of GDP in 2009 to 29% in 2015 and 17% in 2023.

The Central Bank of Ireland reported a drop in both the volume and number of new mortgage loans in 2023, compared to the previous year. A total of 43,087 new loans for €12.2 billion in 2023, against 52,810 new loans for €14.3 billion in 2023. At the same time, the total value of outstanding housing loans in 2023 remained stable at €83.7 billion (US$90.9 billion), only a 0.7% year-on-year increase. Out of the total amount of housing credit, 95.9% represents purchase of principal dwellings.

In general, the distribution of the market has shifted towards owner-occupied properties (principal dwellings) in the last decade, while the buy-to-let (BTL) segment decreased drastically from 23.5% of the total outstanding value in 2013 to only 3.9% in 2023. €126 million in new BTL mortgages was issued in 2023, representing just 1.04% of all new housing loans. Morningstar DBRS in their May 2024 market update mentions that "the recent increase in rates makes BTL mortgages very expensive and the BTL business less attractive and, in some cases, not viable."

Data Source: ECB, Central Bank of Ireland, Global Property Guide

Rental Market: Lacking Supply Continues to Fuel Rental Inflation Albeit at a Slower Pace

In Q1 2024, gross rental yields for apartments in Ireland averaged at 7.85%, according to research by the Global Property Guide conducted in February 2024. While still strong, the indicator is slightly down from last year, as the rents increase has slowed.

The performance varied notably between different unit types. Property website Daft.ie reported nationwide gross rental yields in Q1 2024 ranging from 10.1% for 1-bedroom apartments (up 1 p.p. year-on-year) to 5.3% for 5-bedroom houses (down 1 p.p. year-on-year). Overall, smaller units demonstrated potential for higher returns.

Among key regional submarkets, the highest yield for 1-bedroom apartments was reported in Limerick City (13%), followed by Waterford City (11.6%), Cork City (10.5%), and Galway City (10.3%). In the capital, the best-performing districts were Dublin 22 (12%), Dublin 17 (11.5%), Dublin 10 (11.4%), and Dublin 24 (11.2%).

Data Source: Daft.ie

According to the Central Statistics Office reporting, the rate of home ownership in Ireland continues to fall. It was about 66% in Census 2022, down from 68% in 2016, and almost 70% in 2011, while the nationwide proportion of renters reached 28% (of which 18% rent from private landlords). The share of households renting their residence is 45.2% in Dublin City, 35.7% in Dublin City and County, 29.3% in Waterford City and County, 28.1% in Cork City and County, 26.9% in Galway City and County, and 26.8% in Limerick City and County.

In parallel, for more than a decade Ireland has been experiencing rapid growth in rent rates. Between April 2014 and April 2024 rental index surged by a whopping 113%. The inflation of rental rates is primarily tied to lacking supply. Even in Dublin, where over 125 purpose-built rental developments with over 10,000 new rental units opened since 2016, according to Daft.ie, it is not enough to meet the growing demand.

The more recent dynamic, however, shows a slowdown in rent increases. After the peak of nearly 15% annual growth in August-September 2022, starting from August 2023, the year-on-year growth rate dropped below 10% nationwide and was recorded at 6% in April 2024. Analyzing this trend, Ronan Lyons, Associate Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin and contributor at Daft.ie wrote: "The good news is not about rents becoming more affordable, after a decade of almost uninterrupted growth. Rather it is about rents increasing at a slower rate than in recent years."

Average monthly rent in Q1 2024 by submarket (as reported by Daft.ie):

At the same time, it is not clear whether the slowing inflation trend will last, as the core issue of undersupply remains. Ronan Lyons notes in the commentary to the latest Daft.ie report: "Improved availability of rental homes - in particular in Dublin, although not solely there - from late 2022 to late 2023 - led to falling inflation. Those improvements in availability now look to have finished, at least for now. This suggests, thus, that further pressure on open-market rents this year is likely to be upward, rather than downwards."

Socio-Economic Context: Easing Inflation Pressure and Strong Labor Market to Support Economic Recovery

Following periods of strong growth, Ireland's real GDP weakened significantly in 2023, declining by 3.2%. European Commission analysis ties this contraction to the weak performance of specific multinational-dominated sectors, but indicates that the economy started to recover in Q1 2024, and can be expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, supported by an improvement in global trade, falling inflation, and a strong labor market.

Nationwide inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been easing rapidly, reaching 2.6% year-on-year in April 2024, down from 2.9% the previous month, 4.1% at the beginning of the year, and 7.2% a year ago in April 2023. According to the Central Statistics Office data, this April's inflation rate is the lowest since August 2021, reflecting the transmission of lower wholesale energy prices to retail prices. The European Commission projects further deceleration, although at a slower pace, with headline inflation reaching 1.9% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Data Source: IMF

Ireland's general government budget had previously registered a deficit of 5% of GDP in 2020 during the peak of the global pandemic mitigation but has since recovered and came to a surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2023, in line with the outturn of 2022. Notable revenue growth matched increases in public sector pay and investment. The budget is forecast to maintain the surplus in the next two years, although at a lower level of 1.3% of GDP in 2024 and 1.2% of GDP in 2025, as national revenue and expenditure growth rates are expected to revert to their long-term trend with a broadly neutral impact on the budget surplus.

For the past 5 years Ireland maintained gross debt ratio under the European Union's target threshold of 60% of GDP. As reported by the Central Statistics Office, the Irish gross public debt in 2023 sat at 43.7% of GDP, down from 44.4% the previous year and in line with its decade-long downward trajectory from 120.1% in 2013. The European Commission forecasts the indicator to decrease further to 42.5% in 2024 and 41.3% in 2025.

Data Source: CSO

Ireland's labor market remains strong, serving as one of key factors supporting the ongoing macro-economic recovery. LO unemployment rate for population aged 15-74 was reported by CSO at 4.1% in Q1 2024, a marginal 0.1 p.p. up from the same period a year ago.

Despite signs of market moderation, such as gradually decreasing vacancy rates and softening excess labor demand, the European Commission expects the unemployment in Ireland to stay low, averaging 4.4% in 2024 and 2025. With projected growth in the domestic economy, rising nominal wages, and a slowdown in inflation, real wage growth in Ireland is expected to turn positive in 2024 and continue growing in 2025.

Overall, the Irish economy has shown resilience amid higher interest rates and a weaker global economic backdrop, and the outlook remains generally favorable. Morningstar DBRS summed up the wider context in their May 2024 residential mortgage market update: "Ireland's institutional strengths, robust trade and investment flows, flexible labor market, young and educated workforce, and access to the European internal market support its competitiveness and its medium-term growth prospects."

Sources

1. Central Statistics Office
   1. Residential Property Price Index: https://www.cso.ie/
   2. Consumer Price Index April 2024: https://www.cso.ie/
   3. Census of Population 2022 Profile 2 - Housing in Ireland: https://www.cso.ie/
   4. Press Statement Census 2022 Results Profile 2 - Housing in Ireland: https://www.cso.ie/
   5. Planning Permissions: https://www.cso.ie/
   6. New Dwelling Completions Q1 2024: https://www.cso.ie/
   7. Characteristics of Residential Property Purchasers: https://www.cso.ie/
   8. Government Finance Statistics Quarter 4 2023 https://www.cso.ie/
   9. Labour Force Survey Quarter 1 2024: https://www.cso.ie/
   10. CSO Statistical Database https://www.cso.ie/en/databases/
2. Central Bank of Ireland
   1. Retail Interest Rates: https://www.centralbank.ie/
   2. Mortgage Measures: https://www.centralbank.ie/
   3. New Mortgage Lending Data: https://www.centralbank.ie/
   4. Private Household Credit and Deposits: https://www.centralbank.ie/
3. Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage
   1. Housing for All - a New Housing Plan for Ireland: https://www.gov.ie/
   2. Private housing market statistics: https://www.gov.ie/
   3. Residential Commencement Notices: https://www.gov.ie/
4. Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI)
   1. Annual Residential Market Monitor, Review and Outlook 2024: https://scsi.ie/
5. European Central Bank (ECB)
   1. ECB Data Portal: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/
   2. Key ECB interest rates: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
6. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: Ireland: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRL
7. European Commission
   1. Economic forecast for Ireland: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
   2. Debt Sustainability Monitor 2023: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
8. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
   1. OECD Data Explorer: https://data.oecd.org/
9. Daft.ie
   1. The Daft.ie House Price Report Q1 2024: https://ww1.daft.ie/report/
   2. The Daft.ie Rental Price Report Q1 2024: https://ww1.daft.ie/report/
10. Morningstar DBRS
    1. Irish Residential Mortgage Market Update: https://dbrs.morningstar.com/
11. The Irish Times
    1. Ireland's housing stock has hit new historic low - Sherry FitzGerald: https://www.irishtimes.com/
    2. Housing targets at risk as new home completions fall: https://www.irishtimes.com/
    3. Irish mortgage rates fall marginally in April: https://www.irishtimes.com/