Thailand's Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

On the back of elevated land and construction costs, sales prices in the Thai housing market continue to rise gradually, despite subdued demand from both local and foreign buyers, as well as a slowdown in new development amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

This extended overview from Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the Thai housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Mortgage Market
• Rental Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Despite subdued housing demand, residential property prices in Thailand continued to rise gradually, supported by elevated construction and land costs. Preliminary figures from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) show that in Q2 2025, the Nationwide Residential Property Price Index increased by 2.71% year-on-year. Prices for single-detached houses grew by 2.64%, while townhouses recorded a stronger annual gain of 4.88%.

Thailand's house price annual change:

Note: National House Price Index: Single Detached Houses Including Land (2011=100)
Data Source: Bank of Thailand.

Regionally, the strongest growth was observed in the South, where residential property values rose by 5.48% year-on-year. In contrast, the North registered the most modest increase, with the index up by just 1.84% year-on-year.

Residential Property Price Index, by region:

In the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, overall growth slightly trailed the national average, rising 2.54% year-on-year. Townhouses once again led the segment with a 4.88% annual increase, while condominiums and single-detached houses posted more moderate gains of 1.43% and 1.50%, respectively.

Note: Indices for single-detached houses and townhouses segments include land
Data Source: BOT.

Looking ahead, industry experts expect housing prices to maintain a gradual upward trajectory throughout 2025, with developers prioritizing the clearance of excess inventory before implementing significant adjustments. Athip Pichanon, Honorary President of the Home Builders Association, forecasts a modest recovery, with prices rising by 2-3%, while stressing that land costs will remain the main driver of growth. Surachet Kongcheep, Managing Director of Property DNA, anticipates stable pricing for completed projects as developers work through unsold stock but offers a slightly more optimistic forecast, projecting housing prices could increase by 5-7% annually.

In Bangkok's condominium market, CBRE expects moderate growth concentrated in the downtown segment. Average asking prices for newly launched units are forecast to reach THB 315,000 (USD 9,706) per square meter by the end of 2025, a 1.61% year-on-year increase, supported by higher-quality projects catering to long-term urban demand. By comparison, midtown and suburban areas are expected to record only marginal gains, with prices forecast at THB 110,500 (USD 3,405) per square meter (+0.20%) and THB 84,000 (USD 2,588) per square meter (+0.85%), respectively, as heightened competition limits growth potential.

Demand Highlights:

Housing Transfers Decline, but Policy Support Expected to Rebound Activity

Following a period of weakening in 2023 and 2024, housing demand in Thailand remained subdued in the first quarter of 2025. According to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), a total of 65,276 residential property transfers were registered nationwide, representing a 10.52% year-on-year decline. Market performance varied across segments, with low-rise housing transfers down 12.06% year-on-year and condominium transfers decreasing 7.31%. The total value of transfers followed a similar trajectory, falling 13.02% year-on-year to THB 181,545 million (USD 5,375 million). Both low-rise properties and condominiums recorded year-on-year declines, down 13.87% and 11.06%, respectively.

Mr. Kamolpop Virapala, Managing Director of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the REIC, attributed the weak start to lingering effects from last year's subdued market, shaped by broader economic conditions. He also pointed to policy measures, including the government's reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for properties priced up to THB 7 million and the Bank of Thailand's temporary relaxation of loan-to-value (LTV) rules, as factors expected to stimulate activity. "This is a significant factor affecting the housing market from the second quarter of 2025 onwards and is expected to positively impact the overall economy in the long term," he noted.

Data Source: REIC.

Foreign demand proved more resilient, although it also showed signs of moderation. The REIC data indicates that 3,919 condominium units were transferred to foreign buyers in Q1 2025, a marginal 0.48% decline year-on-year. The total value of these transactions reached THB 16,392 million (USD 485 million), down 9.00% and reflecting stronger activity in lower-priced segments. Foreign buyers accounted for 18.0% of all condominium transfers, up from 16.7% a year earlier, and represented 29.3% of the total transaction value, slightly higher than the 28.6% recorded in Q1 2024.

Data Source: REIC.

Bangkok remained the leading market for foreign buyers, accounting for 43.3% of transfers (1,695 units), up 13.15% year-on-year. Chonburi followed with 1,309 units (33.4% share), though transfers there fell 13.94%. Other notable destinations included Phuket, Chiang Mai, and Samut Prakan.

Transfers of residential property rights in condominiums to foreign buyers, by province:

Chinese buyers retained the largest share at 37.79% of foreign transactions, though both the number and value of units acquired by this group declined amid weaker economic conditions in China. Myanmar, Russia, and Taiwan were also significant markets, representing 11.20%, 7.35%, and 5.03% of foreign transfers, respectively. More than half (54.4%) of all foreign transactions involved properties priced up to THB 3 million (USD 88,824), with units between 31 and 60 square meters the most popular, representing 45.9% of total transfers.

Transfers of residential property rights in condominiums to foreign buyers, by nationality:

Looking ahead, the REIC expects only a marginal cooling in 2025, forecasting total residential transfers to decline 0.3% in volume and 0.8% in value versus 2024. REIC said recent policy support, notably the reduction of transfer and mortgage registration fees (effective April 22, 2025-June 30, 2026) and the Bank of Thailand's temporary relaxation of LTV rules (effective May 1, 2025-June 30, 2026), should help stabilize activity and underpin a gradual recovery from the second quarter.

Kasikorn Research, however, urged caution. The firm projects a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by continued economic uncertainty, constrained purchasing power for some buyer cohorts, and rising housing costs. "A relaxation of the LTV rule to 100% would be a positive factor for the housing market, but the impact of this measure may not be as significant as previous measures due to the overall weak financial readiness of loan applicants," its analysts noted. Kasikorn forecasts roughly 334,000 residential transfers in 2025 - about a 4% year-on-year decline - underscoring that downside risks remain despite policy stimulus.

Supply Highlights:

Developers Hold Back New Supply Amid Weak Demand and Market Uncertainty

Thailand's construction sector is showing clear signs of slowdown, reflecting weaker housing demand and developers' cautious stance. According to the BOT, 26,295 newly completed residential properties were registered in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area during the first five months of 2025, demonstrating a sharp 34.6% year-on-year decline. Completions fell across both low-rise units, such as housing projects and self-built homes (-34.2% year-on-year), and high-rise units, including apartments and condominiums (-35.1% year-on-year).

"The sharp decline in completions highlights developers' caution, as many prioritize clearing existing inventory over launching new projects amid subdued demand and economic uncertainty," the REIC noted. CBRE experts echoed this view, stating that Bangkok developers are expected to remain cautious in 2025, with a strong focus on selling unsold stock. "Some developers have already announced postponements of previously planned launches within 2025. This 'wait-and-see' approach is expected to dominate the market until more favorable conditions return," the analysts observed.

Data Source: BOT.

Forward-looking indicators suggest that new supply will remain constrained in the near term. Data from the National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSO) shows that 46,966 residential units received construction permits in the first quarter of 2025, down 31.0% year-on-year. The total permitted building area also contracted by 29.1%.

Data Source: NSO.

Regional dynamics were mixed. The Bangkok Metropolitan Area recorded the steepest fall, with construction permits down 49.7% year-on-year, representing 14% of all permits issued nationwide. The Central region accounted for the largest share, with 13,657 permits (29% of the total), though this still marked a 29.6% annual decline.

Building permits issued for new residential construction, by region:

Mortgage Market:

Lower Interest Rates and Incentive Measures to Support Market Activity

After several consecutive hikes in 2022-2023, the BOT began cutting its policy rate in October 2024, cumulatively lowering the benchmark by 100 b.p. since then. At its most recent meeting in August 2025, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted to bring the rate down from 1.75% to 1.50%, noting that the policy should be accommodative to support the economy. Industry experts now anticipate at least one more reduction to the policy rate before the end of 2025, as Thailand's economy is projected to slow significantly in the second half of the year due to the direct and indirect impact of the US trade policies and a decline in short-haul tourist arrivals as a result of intensified regional competition.

Reflecting this downward trajectory, minimum retail rates (MRR) set by individual banks and generally serving as a baseline for specific mortgage products continued to decrease, albeit marginally, in the last several months. Based on information published by the BOT, at the end of July 2025, the average MRR for domestic commercial banks was 7.80%, down from 8.02% in July 2024 and equal to 7.80% reported two years ago in July 2023.

Data Source: BOT.

Typically, banks in Thailand offer a discounted fixed rate for the first three years of a loan term, switching to a floating rate tied to MRR from the fourth year. According to the data accumulated by the real estate website DDproperty, as of August 2025, the lowest average interest rate for the first 3 years across various home loan programs is between 2.90% and 3.32% in popular commercial banks, and 1.59% and 2.65% in the state-owned Government Housing Bank (GHB) and Government Savings Bank (GSB), respectively. As both commercial and state-owned banks announced corresponding reductions after the latest policy cut from the BOT on August 13, 2025, MMRs of all major banks are now below the levels reported during the same period a year ago and two years ago.

Selected banks Minimum Retail Rate (MRR):

While gradually declining interest rates improved borrowing costs for current mortgage holders in Thailand, new lending continued to suffer in early 2025 against the background of strict lending requirements established by the financial institutions in response to the growing number of non-performing loans and the weakened debt repayment capability of potential buyers, especially those in the lower-income segments.

In Q1 2025, the REIC reported THB 109.4 billion (USD 3.2 billion) in new mortgage loans to individuals, marking a 10.0% year-on-year drop, which followed a 13.4% annual decline in 2024. Based on the BOT data on new mortgages issued by commercial banks during this period (representing about 65% of all new lending), about 75% of pure new loans were obtained to purchase low-rise individual housing, while about 25% were taken to purchase units in high-rise buildings.

Aiming to curb the decline and support market activity, Thailand's authorities recently introduced temporary incentive measures (in effect until June 30, 2026). The BOT eased Loan-to-Value (LTV) regulations, allowing loans of up to 100% of the collateral value for properties at all price levels. Complementing the LTV changes, the Thai government moved to reduce real estate transfer fees (from 2% to 0.01%) and mortgage registration fees (from 1% to 0.01%) for properties valued up to BHT 7 million.

While the REIC expressed optimism for the measures' impact on the market in its latest quarterly release, saying they will "promptly address the housing market slowdown and contribute positively to its recovery", some industry experts were more sceptical, noting the regulatory ease may not boost residential transfers and sales as much as expected, especially in the high-rise condo market following the spring 2025 earthquake in Myanmar. "Any residential market stimulus measures introduced at this time will likely have only a minimal impact," The Bangkok Post quoted Surachet Kongcheep, head of research & consultancy at Cushman & Wakefield Thailand. "But it is still better than none because they can boost low-rise housing demand."

The REIC's baseline scenario for 2025 expects around THB 594 billion (USD 17.5 billion) in new housing loans by the end of the year, a 1.1% increase compared to 2024, while the worst-case scenario allows for a moderate 1.0% drop.

Data Sources: BOT, REIC.

Overall, the mortgage market expansion in the country has been on a decelerating trajectory, slowing from an average annual growth of 9% in the decade between 2008 and 2018 to 5.5% between 2019 and 2023 and only 2.5% in 2024. The trend is primarily driven by the slowdown in the commercial banks segment, which only showed annual growth of 1.3% in 2023 before registering a 0.1% decline in 2024, according to the BOT data.

As of the end of 2024, the total value of outstanding housing loans to individuals maintained by the financial system of Thailand stood at TBH 5.07 trillion (USD 143.8 billion), with about 54% of the stock represented by mortgages from commercial banks, and the rest made up of loans issued by state enterprises such as the GHB and the GSB, as well as other financial institutions. Sized against the national economy, the market was estimated to equal 27.3% of GDP at current prices in 2024, up from 21.5% a decade earlier in 2014.

Data Sources: BOT, GHB, REIC.

Rental Market:

Demand Sustained by Expats, Tourists, and Local Young Professionals

According to the 2010 Census conducted by the NSO, the homeownership rate in Thailand in 2010 was estimated at 78.9% (compared to 82.4% previously recorded in 2000). At the same time, 16.5% of residents rented accommodation for a fee, and 4.3% rented free of charge.

In recent years, the percentage of homeowners appears to have been decreasing further. An article from the Prachachat Business Newspaper highlights the so-called Generation Rent trend becoming more widespread in Thailand. According to the local experts cited, today's young professionals increasingly don't want to own a home because of pressure from the burden of living costs, coupled with housing prices that are beyond the purchasing power of this group of customers, especially in cities and locations with convenient transportation, such as train lines passing through.

The 2025 property market outlook from DDproperty indicates that rental demand is growing, and is especially high for condos, which continued to receive the most attention from prospective tenants in 2024. The platform's condo demand index increased by 12% year-on-year nationwide, and by 10% year-on-year in Bangkok.

The rental market in Bangkok also benefits from a substantial expatriate community (nearly 103,000 foreigners in the capital province as of July 2025) and a strong digital nomad interest, according to the H1 2025 market analysis from RE/MAX Thailand. In parallel, popular tourist destinations like Phuket, Pattaya, Koh Samui, and Chiang Mai sustain demand for short-term rentals.

Despite indications of growing local demand, balanced out by ample supply, actual rent inflation in Thailand (as measured by the rents component of the Consumer Price Index) has remained subdued, registering at 0.31% year-on-year in July 2025. At the same time, high-end properties popular among foreigners typically demonstrate a more pronounced positive price dynamic.

Data Source: TPSO.

In nominal terms, the research by Global Property Guide conducted in February 2025 found listed rents in Thailand at the average level of USD 188-520 a month for studio units, USD 245-722 for 1-bedroom units, USD 491-1,733 for 2-bedroom units, and USD 1,877-2,888 for 3-bedroom units. The highest average rent levels were observed in Bangkok and Phuket submarkets.

The corresponding gross rental yields averaged at 6.17%, slightly down from 6.27% previously reported in June 2024. Regional performance varied, with the highest yields among the surveyed submarkets registered in Samut Prakan (7.07%) and Nonthaburi (6.43%). In the capital city of Bangkok, the indicator was recorded at 6.05%.

Within the prime residential segment, the most recent residential market dynamics report from JLL noted consistent growth in condominium rents in Bangkok for the twelfth quarter in a row, as cautious potential buyers continue to turn to rentals amid market uncertainty. According to JLL, in Q1 2025, the average gross rent for high-end and luxury units reached TBH 728 (USD 21.45) per square meter, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth.

The continued annual growth dynamic for prime rents is also confirmed by the latest CBRE figures, which show asking rents for Grade A apartments in Bangkok at the average level of THB 584 (USD 17.65) per square meter in Q2 2025, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year increase. The highest average rents for this property type were reported in Central Lumpini/Siam at THB 635 (USD 19.19) per square meter, followed by Sukhumvit (THB 594 / USD 17.95) and Silom/Sathorn (THB 505 / USD 15.26) areas of the capital.

Socio-Economic Context:

Growth Slows, Tourist Arrivals in Decline

Thailand's economy continues to recover, but at a slower pace than regional peers. The country's real GDP growth, primarily driven by private consumption and tourism-related activities, reached 2.5% in 2024 but is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, according to the BOT outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates even lower growth in the upcoming periods, with projections of 1.8% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.

"The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand's longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory," summarized the latest Article IV staff report from the IMF, adding that significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook for the country's economy.

In parallel with slowing growth, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the country remains subdued, falling from the annual level of 1.2% in 2023 to 0.4% in 2024, with the latest reporting from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) showing the year-on-year price growth at just 0.21% in July 2025. In the upcoming periods, the indicator is expected to remain below the central bank's target range of 1-3%. The BOT projects headline inflation at 0.5% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, which aligns with the respective 0.7% and 0.9% forecasts by the IMF.

Data Source: IMF.

While it remains the main driver of the country's economic recovery, supporting the services sector, employment, and private consumption, based on the latest data, Thailand's tourism industry is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic activity levels this year.

After strong rebound growth in 2022-2024, the number of foreign tourists arriving in Thailand demonstrated a 4.7% year-on-year decline in H1 2025, reaching 16.7 million against 17.5 million during the same period in 2024 and 19.8 million in 2019. The decline is mainly attributed to short-haul tourists, especially Chinese, who are traveling to Thailand less due to safety concerns, as well as wider economic factors such as income and consumer confidence in the main origin markets.

At the same time, average accommodation occupancy across Thailand stood at 72.4% in H1 2025, up from 71.5% in 2024 and 71.2% during the pre-pandemic peak in 2018. The BOT anticipates the overall decline in tourist arrivals will continue in the second half of the year, although the increase in long-haul tourists with higher spending per trip is expected to offset revenue losses from the decline in short-haul tourists to extent.

Based on the preliminary figures from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, between January and June 2025, the vast majority of foreign tourists arrived in Thailand from Asia and the Pacific (67.2%), followed by Europe (over 25.8%) and the Americas (4.8%). Key country markets of origin were Malaysia, China, India, and Russia.

Data Sources: BOT, Ministry of Tourism and Sports.

Supported by a substantial recovery in tourism, employment indicators in Thailand's labor market are robust, with the unemployment rate low and stable at around 1% (most recently reported at 0.89% in Q1 2025). At the same time, the IMF staff report notes the market's longstanding structural weaknesses, including underinvestment in human capital, a declining labor force due to rapid population aging, and a large informal sector coupled with insufficient social protection, which contributes to inequality and high household debt.

Data Source: BOT.

Overall, trade policy shifts and increased global uncertainty, leading to weaker exports and private investment, as well as a halt in tourism recovery, impacted by the March 2025 earthquake, are projected to slow Thailand's growth in the upcoming periods.

"While it is difficult to gauge the full impact of recent [trade policy] measures, impacts are potentially significant given Thailand's openness and integration into global value chains. With value added from exports accounting for 10 percent of GDP, Thailand's economy is vulnerable to shifts in trade policy and global economic activity. A slowdown in the US, China, or EU could weaken demand for Thai exports and tourism, which will also affect business investments," said the spring 2025 outlook from the World Bank.

In April 2025, Moody's Ratings, while affirming Thailand's 'Baa1' standing, changed its outlook from stable to negative, flagging concerns over the country's rising debt and weakening fiscal strength exacerbated by external risks.

Sources:

1. National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSO)
   1. 2010 Population and Housing Census: https://www.nso.go.th/
   2. Construction Site Data Processing, Q1 2025 (TH): https://www.nso.go.th/
2. Bank of Thailand (BOT)
   1. Residential Property Price Index and Land Price Index: https://app.bot.or.th/
   2. Property Indicators: https://app.bot.or.th/
   3. Policy Interest Rate: https://www.bot.or.th/
   4. Monetary Policy Committee's Decision 4/2025: https://www.bot.or.th/
   5. Daily Interest Rates of Commercial Banks: https://www.bot.or.th/
   6. Real Estate Loan Report: https://app.bot.or.th/
   7. The Bank of Thailand Has Temporarily Relaxed LTV Regulations to Support the Real Estate Sector (TH): https://www.bot.or.th/
   8. Tourism Indicators: https://app.bot.or.th/
   9. Labor Force Survey: https://app.bot.or.th/
   10. Monetary Policy Report Q2 2025: https://www.bot.or.th/
   11. Economic Outlook: https://www.bot.or.th/
3. Real Estate Information Center (REIC)
   1. Housing Market Situation in the First Quarter of 2025 and the Direction for 2025 (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   2. Housing Market Situation in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 and Trends for 2025 (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   3. Highlight Data Q1 2025 (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   4. Banks Rush to Lower Loan Interest Rates Immediately… (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   5. State Banks Will Reduce Loan Interest Rates Starting August 15th (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   6. Foreign Real Estate Market Slumps, with Transfers from China and Myanmar Decreasing (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   7. Property Prices Projected to Rise 2-3% (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
   8. Factors Causing Real Estate Market to Decline in H1 2025 (TH): https://www.reic.or.th/
4. Royal Thai Government
   1. Measures to Reduce Registration Fees for Rights and Legal Transactions for Residential Properties (TH): https://www.thaigov.go.th/
5. Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO)
   1. Consumer Price Index/Inflation (TH): https://index.tpso.go.th/
6. Ministry of Tourism and Sports
   1. Tourist Statistics: https://www.mots.go.th/
7. Bureau of Registration Administration
   1. Statistics for Executives (TH): https://www.bora.dopa.go.th/
8. Government Housing Bank
   1. Annual Reports: https://www.ghbank.co.th/
9. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: Thailand: https://www.imf.org/
   2. 2024 Article IV Staff Report: https://www.imf.org/
   3. Thailand: Selected Issues: https://www.imf.org/
10. World Bank
    1. Thailand MPO, April 2025: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/
11. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
    1. Thai Baht to US Dollar Spot Exchange Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
12. Kasikorn Research
    1. At its August 13 Meeting, the MPC Unanimously Resolved to Cut the Policy Rate… https://www.kasikornresearch.com/
    2. Residential Property Rights Transfers to Contract by 4% in 2025 (TH): https://www.kasikornresearch.com/
13. JLL
    1. Asia Pacific Residential Market Dynamics Q1 2025: https://www.jll.com/
14. CBRE
    1. Bangkok Overall Figures Q2 2025: https://www.cbre.com/
    2. Bangkok Overall Figures Q1 2025: https://www.cbre.co.th/
    3. Thailand Real Estate Market Outlook, 2025: https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/
15. RE/MAX Thailand
    1. Thai Real Estate Market Analysis - First Half 2025: https://www.remax.co.th/
16. DDproperty
    1. Thailand Property Market Outlook 2025 (TH):  https://www.ddproperty.com/
    2. Home Loan Interest Rates 2025 For All Banks (TH): https://www.ddproperty.com/
    3. Thailand Consumer Sentiment Study H2 2024 (TH): https://www.ddproperty.com/
17. Moody's Ratings
    1. Moody's Ratings Changes Thailand's Outlook to Negative from Stable; Affirms Baa1 Ratings: https://ratings.moodys.com/
18. Bangkok Post
    1. Bank of Thailand Eases Mortgage Rules: https://www.bangkokpost.com/
    2. Home Loan Easing Likely to Disappoint: https://www.bangkokpost.com/
    3. Thailand Approves Property Fee Cuts: https://www.bangkokpost.com/
    4. Rate Cut to Have Muted Effect on Potential Homebuyers: https://www.bangkokpost.com/
    5. Mortgage Rejection Rate Soars After Pandemic: https://www.bangkokpost.com/
19. Prachachat Business Newspaper
    1. Gen Rent - Customers Rejecting Loans, Real Estate Trends for New Generation Consumers (TH): https://www.prachachat.net/