New Zealand Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2024

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New Zealand’s housing market remains weak, amidst the continued increase in mortgage interest rates coupled with the imposition of stricter lending restrictions. In Q2 2024, the nationwide median house price fell by 1.28% to NZ$ 770,000 (US$ 467,513) compared to the same period last year, following a y-o-y growth of 3.23% in Q1 2024 and annual declines of 1.29% in Q4 2023, 3.21% in Q3, 8.24% in Q2, and 12.92% in Q1, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

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When adjusted for inflation, nationwide house prices declined by 4.44% y-o-y in Q2 2024.

Quarter-on-quarter, nationwide house prices were down by 3.75% (4.06%) during the latest quarter.

Auckland, which accounts for more than 30% of total property sales in New Zealand, is performing better than the national average. In Q2 2024, house prices actually increased by 4.8% from a year earlier – in stark contrast to the 12.5% y-o-y fall since in the same period last year.

Taranaki saw the biggest house price growth, where the average house price increased by 10.7% y-o-y in Q2 2024, followed by Gisborne (7.0%), Canterbury (5.0%), Southland (4.1%), and Wellington (2.0%). House prices were steady in Nelson.

In contrast, huge house price falls were registered in the West Coast (-16.9%), Northland (-8.7%), and Bay of Plenty (-6.0%). Other regions with modest to minimal house price declines included Tasman (-2.9%), Waikato (-2.3%), Hawke’s Bay (-2.6%), Otago (-3.8%), Marlborough (-3.9%), Manawatu/Whanganui (-0.9%).

Auckland remains the most expensive housing market in New Zealand, with an average price of NZ$1,048,000 (US$636,304) in June 2024. It was followed by Wellington and Bay of Plenty – both with an average price of NZ$780,000 (US$473,585).

The cheapest housing can be found on the West Coast and Southland, with average prices of NZ$320,000 (US$194,291) and NZ$440,000 (US$267,150), respectively.

 

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES BY REGION, JUNE 2024

Regions

Median price

y-o-y change (%)

NZD

USD

NEW ZEALAND

770,000

467,513

-1.3

Auckland

1,048,000

636,304

4.8

Wellington

780,000

473,585

2.0

Tasman

777,000

471,763

-2.9

Bay of Plenty

780,000

473,585

-6.0

Nelson

650,000

394,654

0.0

Waikato

720,000

437,155

-2.3

Northland

630,000

382,511

-8.7

Hawke’s Bay

662,500

402,244

-2.6

Otago

625,000

379,475

-3.8

Gisborne

615,000

373,403

7.0

Marlborough

620,000

376,439

-3.9

Canterbury

690,000

418,940

5.0

Manawatu/Whanganui

535,000

324,831

-0.9

Taranaki

631,000

383,118

10.7

Southland

440,000

267,150

4.1

West Coast

320,000

194,291

-16.9

Source: REINZ

 

New Zealand saw spectacular house price rises of about 114% (82.5% inflation-adjusted) from 2001 to 2007. Then after a pause, there were nine further years of substantial price rises of about 155% (114.6% inflation-adjusted) from 2012 to 2021, supported by strong demand and economic fundamentals. But house prices have started to decline in the second half of 2022 and have been generally falling since, amidst weak property demand.

In June 2024, property sales in New Zealand were down by a huge 25.6% to 4,356 units as compared to 5,854 units a year ago, according to REINZ. Sales counts in 15 out of the 16 regions declined in June 2024 from a year earlier.

  • In Auckland, the number of properties sold was just 1,287 units in June 2024, sharply down by 35.1% from the same period last year.

  • For New Zealand excluding Auckland, property sales fell by 20.7% y-o-y to 3,069 units in June 2024 from a year ago. The regions outside Auckland with the biggest annual decline included West Coast (-51.2%), Tasman (-41.7%), and Gisborne (-39.4%). The only region that recorded an increase in demand was Northland, with a y-o-y sales increase of 11.9%.

“The typical winter lull, compounded by current economic conditions, has contributed to lower levels of activity in the market. This sentiment is reinforced by seasonally adjusted figures, which reveal a national sales decrease of 11.1% compared to May 2024, reflecting a market performance below expected levels,” said REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird.

“As more listings come to a well-stocked market, those who are in the position to buy are taking their time to carefully select their ideal home,” added Baird.

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Nationwide, the number of days-to-sell decreased by one day from a year ago, to 47 days in June 2024. Northland had the highest days-to-sell at 71 days.

Over the same period, the total number of properties available for sale across the country was 31,745 units, up by a huge 28.6% from 24,676 units a year ago. 

Likewise, total listings increased 25.5% y-o-y to 7,805 units in June 2024. Significant increases in listings were registered in Wellington (50.3%), Hawke’s Bay (35.6%), Gisborne (34.8%), Bay of Plenty (33.6%), Canterbury (33.6%), and Auckland (33%).

“The increased number of listings coming to market continues the trend we have seen all year, with high levels of choice for buyers nationwide. The winter months do tend to see fewer people choosing to sell, and this year is no different,” said Baird.

New Zealand’s economy grew by a meager 0.6% during 2023, a sharp slowdown from annual growth of 2.4% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2021, as rising interest rates and high inflation weigh on private consumption. Prior to the pandemic, the economy has been growing robustly in the past decade, registering an annual average growth of almost 3% from 2010 to 2019. 

Economic activity is expected to remain subdued this year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting the NZ economy to grow by just 1% for the whole year of 2024.

A short history of New Zealand’s housing boom

House prices in New Zealand surged by almost 114% (82.5% inflation-adjusted) from 2001 to 2007, including 24.8% in 2003, 12.2% in 2004, 15.3% in 2005, 9.7% in 2006, and 8% in 2007. Big rises - but then, this was a period when the economy expanded by an average of 3.8% every year.

House prices started to fall in early 2008, but the decline was much less than in other countries. After falling by 4.78% in 2008, house prices rose strongly by 9.59% in 2009 – but only to fall again by 2.22% in 2010.

Supported by healthy economic fundamentals, the housing market started to recover in 2011. New Zealand saw another housing boom in the following years, with prices soaring by 155% (114.6% inflation-adjusted) from 2011 to 2021, including double-digit price rises in 2016 (10.97%), 2019 (12.32%), 2020 (18.6%) and 2021 (21.48%).

The housing market started to weaken since, amidst surging interest rates and the introduction of stricter lending criteria. House prices fell by 12.71% in 2022 and by another 1.29% in 2023.

HOUSE PRICE INDEX, ANNUAL CHANGE (%)

Year

Nominal

Inflation-adjusted

2008

-4.78

-7.89

2009

9.59

7.48

2010

-2.22

-6.01

2011

0.85

-0.98

2012

9.58

8.55

2013

9.77

8.01

2014

5.39

4.59

2015

3.33

3.25

2016

10.97

9.51

2017

6.59

4.92

2018

1.82

-0.07

2019

12.14

10.10

2020

18.63

16.95

2021

21.48

14.66

2022

-12.71

-18.59

2023

-1.29

-5.67

Sources: REINZ, RBNZ, Global Property Guide

 

Housing remains severely unaffordable, despite recent house price falls

New Zealand, particularly Auckland, was still rated as “severely unaffordable”, according to the 2024 edition of Demographia International Housing Affordability report. Yet Auckland’s median multiple actually declined to 8.2 in 2023, sharply down from 11.2% in 2022 and still lower than the 10 in 2021 and the 8.6 in the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

“New Zealand provides a hopeful path forward. Recognizing the crisis is rooted in high land values, new policies are proposed to open up sufficient land to accommodate demand,” said the Demographia report. 

“The newly elected Coalition government (National/ACT/New Zealand First) government plans to implement a housing policy, based principally on moderating the land costs that have skyrocketed in the urban containment policy environment over the past 30 years,” added the report.

An earlier report by the Economist using its global house price index found that New Zealand house prices were about 40% overvalued relative to income. A report by Oxford Economics released before the pandemic ranked New Zealand as the fifth most at-risk among OECD nations. A 2022 report released by Compare the Market, ranked New Zealand as the sixth least affordable country to buy a house, with an “affordability ratio” – the cost per square metre as a percentage of income – of 17.8%.

Despite experiencing house price falls recently, residential properties in New Zealand remains ‘somewhat overvalued’, according to the country’s central bank, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), in its Financial Stability report last year.

“Current prices are within the range of fundamental values suggested by some of the metrics we monitor, but the overall balance across indicators suggests prices remain somewhat overvalued,” said the RBNZ.

In its May 2024 Financial Stability report, the RBNZ noted that lower house prices and strong nominal income growth have contributed to the fall in house price-to-income ratios since 2021, particularly in Auckland. However, said ratios remain elevated compared to historical levels.

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Rental yields are moderate

Gross rental yields in New Zealand ranged from 2.43% to 5.72% in Q2 2024, with a country average of 4.29%, according to a Global Property Guide research conducted in June 2024. For apartments, rental yields averaged 4.40% while houses and townhouses averaged 4.17%.

In Auckland, gross rental yields on apartments are low, with rental yields ranging from 3.24% to 5.96% with a city average of 4.15% in Q2 2024.

Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand, attracts many ex-pats too. This city is prone to earthquakes but most buildings here are earthquake-proofed, especially the new builds. The city’s rental yield returns are low to moderate, ranging from 4.02% to 5.17%, with an average of 4.65%.

Things don’t look better in Christchurch as well, with houses and townhouses offering gross rental yields ranging from 4% to 4.43%, with city average of 4.19% in Q2 2024.

The rental market is a big deal in New Zealand – about 64.5% of New Zealand dwellings were owner-occupied in Q2 2024, while 32% were rented.

New Zealand rents continue to rise

Nationwide, the median weekly rent for private residences stood at NZ$650 (US$395) in May 2024, up by 6.6% from the same period last year and remains at its record-high level, according to Trade Me Property.

“It’s been painful for renters in recent years. Following record-high rents, it looks like we’re finally seeing some much needed supply being injected back into the rental market. That’s taking pressure off for those looking for a rental, with more options available,” said the Trade Me Property report.

Likewise, Statistics New Zealand’s national rental price index rose by 3.8% y-o-y in May 2024, at par with the prior year’s growth.

By region, in May 2024:

  • Marlborough saw the biggest y-o-y increase of 26.7% to reach a median weekly rent of NZ$640 (US$389). It was followed by Otago, with rents rising by 11.1% y-o-y to NZ$600 (US$364).

  • Strong annual increases in median rents were also seen in Hawke’s Bay (8.3%), Southland (8.0%), and Nelson (6.3%).

  • More modest year-on-year rent increases were recorded in Bay of Plenty (4.6%), Canterbury (4.5%), Waikato (3.6%), Northland (3.4%), and Manawatu/Whanganui (1.9%).

  • In Auckland, the median weekly rent for private residences also rose by a modest 4.5% y-o-y to NZ$690 (US$419).

  • Rents for private residences were unchanged in Wellington and Taranaki.

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Key rate kept unchanged; mortgage interest rates continue to rise

In July 2024, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%, extending its rate pause for eight consecutive time. The OCR is now at the highest level since December 2008, as the central bank continues to combat surging inflation.

“Restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year,” said the RBNZ.

“The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand. Labour market pressures have eased, reflecting cautious hiring decisions by firms and an increased supply of labour. The level of economic activity, including business and consumer investment spending and investment intentions, is consistent with the restrictive monetary stance,” added the central bank.

As a result, residential mortgage interest rates continue to rise. In June 2024:

  • Floating mortgage rate: 8.61%, up from 8.45% in the previous year and 5.89% two years ago

  • 6 months initial rate fixation (IRF): 7.76%, up from 7.40% in the previous year and 5.52% two years ago

  • 1 year IRF: 7.60%, up from 7.35% a year earlier and 5.56% two years ago

  • 2 years IRF: 7.35%, higher than the 7.15% in June 2023 and from 5.99% in June 2022

  • 3 years IRF: 6.99%, up from 6.70% a year earlier and 6.24% two years ago

  • 4 years IRF: 6.99%, up from 6.80% in June 2023 and 6.66% in June 2022

  • 5 years IRF: 6.98%, up from 6.78% in the same period last year and 6.77% two years earlier

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New mortgage loans rising strongly again

Despite the continued increase in interest rates, demand for new mortgage loans is rising strongly again. In the first five months of 2024, the total value of new residential mortgage loans surged by 19.1% to NZ$27.19 billion (US$16.51 billion) as compared to the same period last year, following annual declines of 9.9% in 2023 and 30.4% in 2022, and growth of 29.8% in 2021 and 11.9% in 2020, based on figures from the RBNZ

Over the same period:

  • Loans drawn by owner-occupiers, including first-time homebuyers, (who accounted for about 80% of new residential mortgage loans) soared by 16.6% y-o-y to NZ$21.77 billion (US$13.22 billion) in the first five months of 2024.

  • Loans drawn by investors rose strongly by 31.4% y-o-y to NZ$5.03 billion (US$3.05 billion).

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As a result, the total value of outstanding residential mortgage loans rose by 3.2% to NZ$ 354.02 billion (US$ 214.83 billion) in Q1 2024 from a year ago. Yet, it remains lower than the average growth of 6.4% annually from 2013 to 2023.

The size of the mortgage market continuously grew from 55.1% of GDP in 2000 to 92.7% of GDP in 2021. Though, it noticeably slowed in the past two years, due to a sharp decline in new housing loans drawn, amidst rising interest rates. The size of the market contracted to 89.4% of GDP in 2022 and further to 86.7% of GDP in 2023.

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Loan-to-value ratio restrictions loosened, but debt-to-income restrictions introduced

LVR restrictions, which limit how much banks can lend to low-deposit borrowers, had been in place since October 2013. But in April 2020, the RBNZ temporarily removed LVR restrictions on residential mortgage lending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The central bank reinstated them on March 1, 2021.

“LVR restrictions support the stability of the housing market and help reduce the risk of a sharp correction in house prices. They also provide an additional buffer if a housing downturn were to occur, which would particularly affect highly indebted homeowners and investors,” said the RBNZ

“LVR restrictions, which were reintroduced in early 2021, have helped to limit the number of households in negative equity, which remains small compared to banks’ overall mortgage portfolios. However, further declines in prices would see a marked rise,” the RBNZ noted.

A further tightening of investors’ restrictions took effect in May 2021. Then in November 2021, restrictions on lending to owner-occupiers were also tightened.

Then in May 2024, the RBNZ announced that new debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions will be activated and be effective starting July 1, 2024 to create limits on the amount of high-DTI lending that banks can make. However, LVR restrictions will now be loosened.

“LVRs target the impact of defaults by reducing the amount of potential losses in the event of a housing down-turn, while DTIs reduce the probability of default by targeting the ability of borrowers to continue to repay debt. Both act as guardrails reducing the build-up of high-risk lending in the system,” said RBNZ deputy governor Christian Hawkesby.

“Therefore, activating DTIs means that we can ease LVR settings too,” added Hawkesby.

According to the RBNZ, the new DTI settings allow banks to make: 

  • 20% of new owner-occupier lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 6; and,

  • 20% of new investor lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 7.

LVRs will be eased to allow banks to make: 

  • 20% of owner-occupier lending to borrowers with an LVR greater than 80%; and,

  • 5% of investor lending to borrowers with an LVR greater than 70%.

Residential construction activity slowing rapidly

During 2023, the total number of new dwelling consents in New Zealand plummeted by 22.9% y-o-y to 38,209 units, in sharp contrast to annual increases of 1.1% in 2022, 24.3% in 2021, 4.8% in 2020, and 14% in 2019.

The weakness of residential construction activity continues this year. In the first five months of 2024, new dwellings consented totaled 14,199 only, down by 16.2% from the same period last year, according to Statistics New Zealand.

By region:

  • In Auckland, new dwelling consents were down by 20.5% y-o-y to 5,723 units in the first five months of 2024.

  • In Waikato, consents fell by 27.2% y-o-y to 1,143 dwelling units.

  • In Wellington, consents plunged by 25.3% y-o-y to 884 units.

  • In Canterbury, consents dropped 10% y-o-y to 2,677 units.

  • In the rest of North Island, consents fell by 16.2% y-o-y to 2,027 dwelling units.

  • In the rest of South Island, consents were down by 15% to 1,274 units in Jan-May 2024 from a year earlier.



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Dwelling stock still increasing

Despite slowing residential construction activity, dwelling stock continues to increase. As of Q2 2024, New Zealand’s total dwelling stock totaled 2,012,400 units, up by 1.8% from a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand.

As of Q2 2024:

  • Owner-occupied: 1,298,900 units, up by 1.8% from a year ago

  • Rented: 644,600 units, also up by 1.8% from the previous year

  • Provided-free: 69,000 units, up by 1.9% from a year ago

Likewise, the total value of dwelling stock in the country increased by 3.6% y-o-y to NZ$1.63 trillion (US$990.12 billion) in Q1 2024, based on RBNZ figures.

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Immigration and the housing market

A study by Yale University found that around 40,000 people in New Zealand, or 1% of the population, are living on the streets or in emergency accommodations. This is the highest rate of homelessness in any developed country. It is generally believed that the shortage of housing, the high prices, and the homelessness issue, are all interconnected.

One reason for strong house price rises has been the healthy expansion of New Zealand’s economy.

A second reason was low-interest rates.

A third reason was high immigration.

International migrant flows have a significant impact on house price movements and construction activity in New Zealand. From 2005 to 2012, the country’s net migration averaged only 5,350 people every year, because of the weak economy and low employment opportunities. In contrast, net permanent and long-term immigration was more than almost 61,000 people in 2002, 41,500 in 2003 and 14,000 in 2004.

To address the problem, the parliament passed the Overseas Investment Amendment Act, effective in October 2018, prohibiting non-resident foreigners from buying existing homes in the country. There are some exceptions, though. Foreigners with NZ residency status are still allowed to buy houses, as well as people from Australia and Singapore, due to existing free-trade agreements. Foreigners who already own homes in NZ are also not affected by the new law.

“This government believes that New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthier foreign buyers,” said Environment Minister and former Trade and Economic Development Minister David Parker. “Whether it’s a beautiful lakeside or ocean-front estate or a modest suburban house, this law ensures that the market for our homes is set in New Zealand, not on the international market.”

In the succeeding three years since the law was passed, only about 0.5% of total home transfers in the country were to people without NZ citizenship or resident visas, down from 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2017. 

During 2023, the share of non-resident buyers to total sales dropped further to 0.5%, and stayed at that level in Q1 2024, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Before the ban, in central Auckland and the southern scenic hot spot of Queenstown, foreigners accounted for about 22% and 5% of total sales, respectively.

“Is the ban wise or useful? We think it’s neither,” said Dave Platter of Chinese real estate portal Juwai.com. “Foreign buying…tends to be focused on new development, making clear again that foreign investment leads to the creation of new dwellings. That’s vital in a market with a housing shortage, like Auckland.”

In fact, the IMF had previously urged the NZ government to reconsider the ban, as it is unlikely to improve housing affordability in the country. It also warned the move could discourage foreign investment needed to build new homes.

True enough, housing affordability worsened further and house prices continued to surge in the past three years, despite the ban and the Covid-19 pandemic.

During 2020, house prices surged 18.6% from a year earlier, amidst a net migration of 36,844 people. House prices continued to accelerate in 2021, rising by a whopping 21.5%, despite a negative net migration of 14,950 due to pandemic-related restrictions. 

In 2022, house prices had fallen by 12.71%, despite a positive net migration of 24,832 people. This can be attributed to a decline in demand due to a surge in interest rates and the imposition of stricter lending criteria. 

Last year, the house price fall decelerated sharply to just 1.29%. Net migration surged to 125,962 people in 2023 – the first full year of open borders since 2019. New Zealand experienced an unprecedented increase in demand for visitor visas, after the government introduced new visa categories to attract more migrants, amidst the country’s low population growth rate and labor force shortages.

“Following border reopening, record net migration in 2023 helped address supply-side bottlenecks and labor shortages,” said the IMF.

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Sluggish economic growth; increasing unemployment

New Zealand’s economy grew by a meager 0.6% during 2023, a sharp slowdown from annual growth of 2.4% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2021, as rising interest rates and high inflation weigh on private consumption. Prior to the pandemic, the economy has been growing robustly in the past decade, registering an annual average growth of almost 3% from 2010 to 2019. 

“New Zealand’s economic activity has slowed following monetary policy tightening and a decline in investment. After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) cumulative rate hikes of 525 bps between October 2021 and May 2023, GDP growth momentum fell substantially in 2023,” noted the IMF. “The first three quarters of 2023 saw a contraction in private investment and government consumption and slow growth in household consumption, suggesting the slowdown is broad-based and likely reflects the lagged impact of policy tightening.”

Economic activity is expected to remain subdued this year, with the IMF projecting the NZ economy to grow by just 1% for the whole year of 2024.

The NZ economy contracted by 1.4% during 2020, mainly due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, in contrast to its robust economic performance in the past decade, with growth of 2.9% in 2019, 3.4% in 2018, 3.5% in 2017, 4% in 2016, 3.7% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2014. After the Asian financial crisis, New Zealand grew by an average of 3.8% per year from 1999 to 2007.

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The country’s budget deficit was equivalent to about 2.4% of GDP last year, following shortfalls of 2.7% in 2022, 1.3% in 2021, and 7.3% in 2020, based on figures from New Zealand Treasury. The deficit is projected to worsen in the coming year as the country’s economic outlook deteriorated, according to Finance Minister Nicola Willis.

New Zealand’s general government gross debt stood at 38.5% of GDP last year, up from 35.9% of GDP in 2022, 29.8% in 2021, 26.2% in 2020, and 18.6% in 2019. It was the highest level seen since 1995.

“New Zealand’s government debt is sustainable. However, debt increased more rapidly than in many advanced economies in recent years and will continue its upward trajectory absent decisive consolidation,” said the IMF.

“In IMF staff’s view, restoring an operating surplus in the 4-year forecast period should remain the objective, underpinned by efficacious caps on operating allowances. This could strengthen credibility and preserve the policy space to respond to shocks.”

Unemployment stood at 4.3% in Q1 2024, up from 4% in Q4 2023, 3.9% in Q3, 3.6% in Q2, and 3.4% in Q1, according to Statistics New Zealand. There were about 134,000 unemployed people in the country in Q1 2024.

Nationwide inflation was 3.3% in Q2 2024, down from 4% in the previous quarter and 6% from the same period last year. It was the lowest level recorded since Q2 2021. However, it remains above the RBNZ’s target range of 1% to 3%.

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Sources:

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