New Zealand Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025
New Zealand's housing market remains subdued.
Table of Contents
- Housing Market Snapshot
- Historic Perspective
- Demand Highlights
- Supply Highlights
- Rental Market
- Mortgage Market
- Socio-Economic Context
Housing Market Snapshot
The national median house price rose by a minuscule 0.63% to NZ$795,000 (US$443,888) in November 2024 from the same period last year, after registering a year-on-year decline of 2.47% in the prior year, based on figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). In fact, when adjusted for inflation, nationwide house prices actually fell by 1.46% over the same period.
New Zealand's house price annual change
Latest figures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the country's central bank, showed that the national house price index declined by 0.85% in Q3 2024 from a year earlier, following y-o-y increases of 1.46% in Q2 2024 and 2.6% in Q1 2024 and annual falls of 0.57% in Q4 2023 and 4.06% in Q3 2023. In real terms, the index was down by 2.94%.
Quarter-on-quarter, the nationwide house price index dropped 0.68% (-1.3 inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024.
Auckland, which accounts for more than 30% of total property sales in New Zealand, is underperforming compared to the national average. In November 2024, house prices were down by 1.3% from a year earlier, following a y-o-y fall of 0.8% in November 2023, according to REINZ.
Southland saw the biggest house price growth, where the average house price surged by 17.7% y-o-y in November 2024, followed by Gisborne (13.4%), Northland (8.1%), Otago (8.1%), and Hawke's Bay (5.1%). Other regions with mild house price increases included Bay of Plenty (2.8%), Manawatu/Whanganui (2.6%), Taranaki (1.7%), and Nelson (1.2%).
In contrast, modest to minimal house price falls were registered in the West Coast (-3.7%), Marlborough (-3.0%), Waikato (-2.0%), Wellington (-1.8%), Auckland (-1.3%) and Canterbury (-0.1%),.
Auckland remains the most expensive housing market in New Zealand, with an average price of NZ$1,038,000 (US$579,567) in November 2024. It was followed by Tasman and Bay of Plenty, with average prices of NZ$835,000 (US$466,222) and NZ$825,000 (US$460,639), respectively.
The cheapest housing in the country can be found on the West Coast, with an average price of NZ$385,000 (US$214,965) over the same period. House prices are also relatively low in Southland, with an average of NZ$518,000 (US$289,225), and Manawatu/Whanganui, with NZ$544,000 (US$303,742).
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES BY REGION, NOVEMBER 2024 | |||
Regions | Median Price | y-o-y change (%) | |
NZD | USD | ||
NEW ZEALAND | 795,000 | 443,888 | 0.0% |
Auckland | 1,038,000 | 579,567 | -1.3% |
Wellington | 773,000 | 431,604 | -1.8% |
Tasman | 835,000 | 466,222 | 0.0% |
Bay of Plenty | 825,000 | 460,639 | 2.8% |
Nelson | 657,500 | 367,115 | 1.2% |
Waikato | 750,000 | 418,762 | -2.0% |
Northland | 730,000 | 407,595 | 8.1% |
Hawke's Bay | 715,000 | 399,220 | 5.1% |
Otago | 708,000 | 395,312 | 8.1% |
Gisborne | 635,000 | 354,552 | 13.4% |
Marlborough | 650,000 | 362,927 | -3.0% |
Canterbury | 699,000 | 390,287 | -0.1% |
Manawatu/Whanganui | 544,000 | 303,742 | 2.6% |
Taranaki | 590,000 | 329,426 | 1.7% |
Southland | 518,000 | 289,225 | 17.7% |
West Coast | 385,000 | 214,965 | -3.7% |
Source: REINZ |
New Zealand saw spectacular house price rises of about 114% (82.5% inflation-adjusted) from 2001 to 2007. Then after a pause, there were nine further years of substantial price rises of about 155% (114.6% inflation-adjusted) from 2012 to 2021, supported by strong demand and economic fundamentals. But house prices have started to decline in the second half of 2022 and the housing market has been generally sluggish since, amidst weak property demand.
Though demand is showing some improvements, in the first three quarters of 2024, the total number of house sales in New Zealand increased by 10.6% y-o-y to 59,231 units, according to the RBNZ. Likewise, a recent report released by REINZ showed that nationwide property sales rose by 10.8% y-o-y in November 2024 to reach 7,233 units. Sales counts in 13 out of the 16 regions increased in November 2024 from a year earlier.
The overall economy remains weak. The NZ economy was estimated to have registered zero growth during 2024, a sharp slowdown from annual expansions of 0.6% in 2023, 2.4% in 2022, and 5.6% in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, the economy has been growing robustly in the past decade, registering an annual average growth of almost 3% from 2010 to 2019.
"Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow," said the RBNZ.
Economic conditions are projected to improve in the coming months, with the RBNZ forecasting a real GDP growth rate of 2.2% in 2025, up from its prior estimate of 1.8%. On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s economic growth projection is more conservative, at 1.9% for the whole year of 2025.
Historic Perspective:
A short history of New Zealand's housing boom
House prices in New Zealand surged by almost 114% (82.5% inflation-adjusted) from 2001 to 2007, including 24.8% in 2003, 12.2% in 2004, 15.3% in 2005, 9.7% in 2006, and 8% in 2007. Big rises - but then, this was a period when the economy expanded by an average of 3.8% every year.
House prices started to fall in early 2008, but the decline was much less than in other countries. After falling by 4.78% in 2008, house prices rose strongly by 9.59% in 2009 - but only to fall again by 2.22% in 2010.
Supported by healthy economic fundamentals, the housing market started to recover in 2011. New Zealand saw another housing boom in the following years, with prices soaring by 155% (114.6% inflation-adjusted) from 2011 to 2021, including double-digit price rises in 2016 (10.97%), 2019 (12.32%), 2020 (18.6%) and 2021 (21.48%).
The housing market started to weaken, amidst surging interest rates and the introduction of stricter lending criteria. House prices fell by 12.71% in 2022 and by another 1.29% in 2023. House prices had been more or less steady in 2024.
HOUSE PRICE INDEX, ANNUAL CHANGE (%) | ||
Year | Nominal | Inflation-adjusted |
2008 | -4.78% | -7.89% |
2009 | 9.59% | 7.48% |
2010 | -2.22% | -6.01% |
2011 | 0.85% | -0.98% |
2012 | 9.58% | 8.55% |
2013 | 9.77% | 8.01% |
2014 | 5.39% | 4.59% |
2015 | 3.33% | 3.25% |
2016 | 10.97% | 9.51% |
2017 | 6.59% | 4.92% |
2018 | 1.82% | -0.07% |
2019 | 12.14% | 10.10% |
2020 | 18.63% | 16.95% |
2021 | 21.48% | 14.66% |
2022 | -12.71% | -18.59% |
2023 | -1.29% | -5.67% |
2024* | 0.63% | -1.46% |
Note: *As of Nov 2024 | ||
Sources: REINZ, RBNZ, Global Property Guide |
Demand Highlights:
Housing remains severely unaffordable, despite recent house price falls
New Zealand, particularly Auckland, was still rated as "severely unaffordable", according to the 2024 edition of Demographia International Housing Affordability report. Yet Auckland's median multiple actually declined to 8.2, sharply down from 11.2% in the previous year and still lower than the median multiple of 10.0 recorded two years ago, and 8.6 in the pre-pandemic year of 2019.
"New Zealand provides a hopeful path forward. Recognizing the crisis is rooted in high land values, new policies are proposed to open up sufficient land to accommodate demand," said the Demographia report.
"The newly elected Coalition government (National/ACT/New Zealand First) government plans to implement a housing policy, based principally on moderating the land costs that have skyrocketed in the urban containment policy environment over the past 30 years," added the report.
An earlier report by the Economist using its global house price index found that New Zealand house prices were about 40% overvalued relative to income. A report by Oxford Economics released before the pandemic ranked New Zealand as the fifth most at-risk among OECD nations. A 2022 report released by Compare the Market, ranked New Zealand as the sixth least affordable country to buy a house, with an "affordability ratio" - the cost per square metre as a percentage of income - of 17.8%.
Despite the recent declines, house prices in the country remain stretched for prospective buyers, and are still around the top of RBNZ's estimate of sustainable levels, according to the central bank's November 2024 Financial Stability Report.
"Despite house prices easing, the elevated interest rates mean that purchasing a new house remains relatively unfavorable compared with long-term averages. To assess the sustainability of house prices we consider the mortgage servicing costs for a new buyer, both relative to average household incomes and relative to the alternative option (renting). These two indicators rose rapidly as house prices were peaking in late 2021, and they have remained at historically high levels," said the RBNZ report.
"Overall, our metrics for house price sustainability suggest that current levels are around the top of the indicator range," added the report.
Home sales increasing
In the first three quarters of 2024, the total number of house sales in New Zealand increased by 10.6% to 59,231 units as compared to 53,566 units in the same period in 2023, according to the RBNZ.
This is in line with the recent report released by REINZ, which showed that nationwide property sales rose by 10.8% in November 2024 to reach 7,233 units. Sales counts in 13 out of the 16 regions increased in November 2024 from a year earlier.
- In Auckland, there were 2,239 units of properties sold in November 2024, up by 6.3% from the same period last year.
- For New Zealand excluding Auckland, property sales were up by 12.9% y-o-y to 4,994 units in November 2024 from a year ago. The regions outside Auckland with the biggest annual increase in property sales included Gisborne (52.4%), Wellington (42.8%), Hawke's Bay (41.1%), and Otago (29.1%). Only Tasman, Southland, and Nelson recorded a decline in demand.
"There's been a shift in market sentiment nationwide in November. After a challenging year, recent data indicates promising signs of increased activity, which we hope will continue into 2025. This is a good time to make transactions, as prices remain stable, and interest rates decrease," said REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird.
Nationwide, the number of days-to-sell increased by four days from a year ago, to 42 days in November 2024. In Auckland, the median days to sell also rose by three days in November 2024 from the previous year to 40 days.
In contrast, Nelson and Waikato had their lowest median days-to-sell since December 2023.
Over the same period, listings nationally increased by 3.9% y-o-y to 11,129 properties. Eleven of the 15 regions recorded a rise in listings in November 2024 compared to the previous year, with Southland (14.5%), Bay of Plenty (14.1%), and West Coast (13.6%) experiencing the largest increases.
Overall, the total number of properties available for sale across the country reached 33,984 units in November 2024, a sharp increase of 21.3% from a year earlier. All 15 regions saw a year-on-year increase in inventory over the same period.
Supply Highlights:
Residential construction activity slowing rapidly
In the first eleven months of 2024, the total number of new dwelling consents in New Zealand fell by 10.4% y-o-y to 31,122 units, following a huge drop of 22.9% in the full year of 2023, based on figures from Statistics New Zealand.
The continued decline in construction activity in the past two years was in stark contrast to the annual growth of 1.1% seen in 2022, 24.3% in 2021, 4.8% in 2020, and 14% in 2019.
By region:
- In Auckland, new dwelling consents were down by 7.7% y-o-y to 13,503 units in the first eleven months of 2024.
- In Waikato, consents fell sharply by 18.5% y-o-y to 2,642 dwelling units in Jan-Nov 2024.
- In Wellington, consents plunged by 28% y-o-y to 1,690 units over the same period.
- In Canterbury, consents dropped by a modest 3.1% y-o-y to 6,181 units.
- In the rest of North Island, consents fell by 8.2% y-o-y to 4,575 dwelling units.
- In the rest of South Island, consents were down slightly by 1.6% to 3,250 units in Jan-Nov 2024 from the same period in the prior year.
Dwelling stock still increasing
Despite slowing residential construction activity, dwelling stock continues to increase. As of December 2024, New Zealand's total dwelling stock totaled 2,027,700 units, up by 1.7% from a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand.
As of December 2024:
- Owner-occupied: 1,354,500 units, up by 1.1% from a year ago
- Rented: 635,600 units, also up by 2.9% from the previous year
- Provided-free: 37,500 units, up by 1.6% from a year ago
Likewise, the total value of dwelling stock in the country increased by 1.7% y-o-y to NZ$1.62 trillion (US$903.42 billion) in Q3 2024, based on RBNZ figures.
Rental Market:
Rental yields are moderate
Gross rental yields in New Zealand ranged from 3.29% to 5.85% in Q4 2024, with a country average of 4.21%, according to a recent Global Property Guide research conducted in December 2024. It was slightly down from an average of 4.29% in Q2 2024.
For apartments, rental yields averaged 4.33% while houses and townhouses averaged 4.14%.
In Auckland, gross rental yields on apartments are low to moderate, with rental yields ranging from 3.47% to 5.85% with a city average of 4.34% in Q4 2024.
Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand, attracts many ex-pats too. This city is prone to earthquakes but most buildings here are earthquake-proofed, especially the new buildings. The city's rental yield returns for apartments are moderate, ranging from 4.18% to 4.58%, with an average of 4.33%.
Things don't look better in Christchurch as well, with houses and townhouses offering gross rental yields ranging from 4.4% to 4.65%, with a city average of 4.52% in Q4 2024.
The rental market is a big deal in New Zealand - about 66.8% of New Zealand dwellings were owner-occupied in Q4 2024, while 31.3% were rented, based on figures from Statistics New Zealand. The remaining 1.9% were provided free.
Rental market slowing
In November 2024, the actual rentals for housing rose slightly by 1% from a year earlier, a slowdown from the prior year's 5.52% increase, according to Statistics New Zealand.
Figures from Trade Me Property showed a similar pattern, with the nationwide median weekly rent for private residences increasing by 2.4% in October 2024 to NZ$635 (US$355), down from a y-o-y growth of 6.9% in October 2023.
"For a long time, rents had been running hot, rising faster than inflation and outpacing wage growth. It was around mid-2024 when we saw supply start to catch up with demand and now we see listings at record highs and demand at four-year lows," said the Trade Me Property report.
By region, in October 2024:
- Marlborough saw the biggest y-o-y increase of 12.5% to reach a median weekly rent of NZ$585 (US$327). It was followed by Southland, with rents rising by 11.6% y-o-y to NZ$480 (US$268,) and Otago, with rents up by 10.2% y-o-y to NZ$650 (US$363).
- Moderate annual increases in median rents were also seen in Waikato (6.3%), Bay of Plenty (4.6%), Hawke's Bay (4.0%), and Nelson/Tasman (3.6%).
- Minimal rent increases were registered in Canterbury (1.8%) and Taranaki (0.8%).
- In Auckland, the median weekly rent for private residences was steady at US$675 (NZ$377).
- Rents for private residences were also unchanged in Wellington, Northland, and Manawatu/Whanganui.
"It's a seasonal trend we tend to see at this time. What is a little more unusual is increases at a time when demand is soft and supply is sky-rocketing," said Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd.
"These market conditions are generally a positive for renters with plenty of choice. If supply remains as it is currently we can expect to see more stable rents in the short to medium term," added Lloyd.
Mortgage Market:
Key rate cuts result to falling mortgage interest rates
In November 2024, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25%, marking its third consecutive rate cut since August 2024, in an effort to buoy economic activity amidst easing inflationary pressures.
New Zealand's mortgage loan interest rates:
"Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. Domestic price and wage-setting behaviours are becoming consistent with inflation remaining near the target midpoint. The price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation," said the RBNZ.
"If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year," added the central bank.
As a result, residential mortgage interest rates are now noticeably falling again. In December 2024:
- Floating mortgage rate: 7.66%, down from 8.61% in the same period in the prior year and 7.81% two years ago
- 6 months initial rate fixation (IRF): 6.67%, sharply down from 7.83% in the previous year and already lower than the 6.85% two years ago
- 1 year IRF: 6.3%, down from 7.76% a year earlier and 6.82% two years ago
- 2 years IRF: 6.12%, far lower than the 7.54% in December 2023 and from 7.08% in December 2022
- 3 years IRF: 6.05%, far lower than the 7.22% a year earlier and 7.07% two years ago
- 4 years IRF: 6.14%, down from 7.23% in December 2023 and 7.28% in December 2022
- 5 years IRF: 6.15%, down from 7.2% in the same period in the prior year and 7.32% two years earlier
New mortgage loans rising strongly again
Amidst falling interest rates, demand for new mortgage loans is rising strongly again. In the first eleven months of 2024, the total value of new residential mortgage loans surged by 18.2% to NZ$67.15 billion (US$37.49 billion) as compared to the same period last year, following annual declines of 9.9% in 2023 and 30.4% in 2022, and growth of 29.8% in 2021 and 11.9% in 2020, based on figures from RBNZ.
Over the same period:
- Loans drawn by owner-occupiers, including first-time homebuyers, (who accounted for about 79% of new residential mortgage loans) increased by 14% y-o-y to NZ$52.84 billion (US$29.5 billion) in the first eleven months of 2024.
- Loans drawn by investors rose strongly by 38.1% y-o-y to NZ$13.34 billion (US$7.45 billion).
- Loans drawn for business purposes were up by 17.9% y-o-y to NZ$968 million (US$540.5 million).
As a result, the total value of outstanding residential mortgage loans rose by 3.4% to NZ$ 360.67 billion (US$ 201.38 billion) in Q3 2024 from a year ago. Yet, it remains lower than the average growth of 6.4% annually from 2013 to 2023.
The size of the mortgage market continuously grew from 55.1% of GDP in 2000 to 92.7% of GDP in 2021. Though, it noticeably slowed in recent years, due to a sharp decline in new housing loans drawn, amidst rising interest rates. The size of the market contracted to 89.4% of GDP in 2022 and further to less than 87% of GDP in the past two years.
Loan-to-value ratio restrictions loosened, but debt-to-income restrictions introduced
LVR restrictions, which limit how much banks can lend to low-deposit borrowers, had been in place since October 2013. But in April 2020, the RBNZ temporarily removed LVR restrictions on residential mortgage lending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The central bank reinstated them on March 1, 2021.
"LVR restrictions support the stability of the housing market and help reduce the risk of a sharp correction in house prices. They also provide an additional buffer if a housing downturn were to occur, which would particularly affect highly indebted homeowners and investors," said the RBNZ.
"LVR restrictions, which were reintroduced in early 2021, have helped to limit the number of households in negative equity, which remains small compared to banks' overall mortgage portfolios. However, further declines in prices would see a marked rise," the RBNZ noted.
A further tightening of investors' restrictions took effect in May 2021. Then in November 2021, restrictions on lending to owner-occupiers were also tightened.
In May 2024, the RBNZ announced that new debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions will be activated and effective starting July 1, 2024, to create limits on the amount of high-DTI lending that banks can make. However, LVR restrictions will now be loosened.
"LVRs target the impact of defaults by reducing the amount of potential losses in the event of a housing downturn, while DTIs reduce the probability of default by targeting the ability of borrowers to continue to repay debt. Both act as guardrails reducing the build-up of high-risk lending in the system," said RBNZ deputy governor Christian Hawkesby.
"Therefore, activating DTIs means that we can ease LVR settings too," added Hawkesby.
According to the RBNZ, the new DTI settings allow banks to make:
- 20% of new owner-occupier lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 6; and,
- 20% of new investors lend to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 7.
LVRs will be eased to allow banks to make:
- 20% of owner-occupier lending to borrowers with an LVR greater than 80%; and,
- 5% of investors lend to borrowers with an LVR greater than 70%.
Socio-Economic Context:
Immigration and the housing market
A study by Yale University found that around 40,000 people in New Zealand, or 1% of the population, are living on the streets or in emergency accommodations. This is the highest rate of homelessness in any developed country. It is generally believed that the shortage of housing, the high prices, and the homelessness issue, are all interconnected.
- One reason for strong house price rises has been the healthy expansion of New Zealand's economy.
- A second reason was low interest rates.
- A third reason was high immigration.
International migrant flows have a significant impact on house price movements and construction activity in New Zealand. From 2005 to 2012, the country's net migration averaged only 5,350 people every year, because of the weak economy and low employment opportunities. In contrast, net permanent and long-term immigration was more than almost 61,000 people in 2002, 41,500 in 2003, and 14,000 in 2004.
To address the problem, the parliament passed the Overseas Investment Amendment Act, effective in October 2018, prohibiting non-resident foreigners from buying existing homes in the country. There are some exceptions, though. Foreigners with NZ residency status are still allowed to buy houses, as well as people from Australia and Singapore, due to existing free-trade agreements. Foreigners who already own homes in NZ are also not affected by the new law.
"This government believes that New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthier foreign buyers," said Environment Minister and former Trade and Economic Development Minister David Parker. "Whether it's a beautiful lakeside or ocean-front estate or a modest suburban house, this law ensures that the market for our homes is set in New Zealand, not on the international market."
In the succeeding three years since the law was passed, only about 0.5% of total home transfers in the country were to people without NZ citizenship or resident visas, down from 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2017.
In the past three years, the share of non-resident buyers to total sales dropped further to about 0.4%, based on figures released by  Statistics New Zealand.
Before the ban, in central Auckland and the southern scenic hot spot of Queenstown, foreigners accounted for about 22% and 5% of total sales, respectively.
"Is the ban wise or useful? We think it's neither," said Dave Platter of Chinese real estate portal Juwai.com. "Foreign buying…tends to be focused on new development, making clear again that foreign investment leads to the creation of new dwellings. That's vital in a market with a housing shortage, like Auckland."
In fact, the IMF had previously urged the NZ government to reconsider the ban, as it is unlikely to improve housing affordability in the country. It also warned the move could discourage foreign investment needed to build new homes.
True enough, housing affordability worsened further and house prices continued to surge in the past three years, despite the ban and the Covid-19 pandemic.
During 2020, house prices surged 18.6% from a year earlier, amidst a net migration of 36,844 people. House prices continued to accelerate in 2021, rising by a whopping 21.5%, despite a negative net migration of 14,950 due to pandemic-related restrictions.
In 2022, house prices had fallen by 12.71%, despite a positive net migration of 24,900 people. This can be attributed to a decline in demand due to a surge in interest rates and the imposition of stricter lending criteria.
Then in 2023, the house price fall decelerated sharply to just 1.29%. Net migration surged to 127,664 people in 2023 - the first full year of open borders since 2019. New Zealand experienced an unprecedented increase in demand for visitor visas, after the government introduced new visa categories to attract more migrants, amidst the country's low population growth rate and labor force shortages.
"Following border reopening, record net migration in 2023 helped address supply-side bottlenecks and labor shortages," said the IMF.
Housing prices have increased slightly in 2024, amidst a net migration of 44,907 as of Q3 2024.
Sluggish economic growth; easing inflation
New Zealand's economy was estimated to have registered zero growth during 2024, a sharp slowdown from annual expansions of 0.6% in 2023, 2.4% in 2022, and 5.6% in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, the economy has been growing robustly in the past decade, registering an annual average growth of almost 3% from 2010 to 2019.
"Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow," said the RBNZ.
"Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025, as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending," added the central bank.
The RBNZ expects an economic growth of 2.2% for 2025, up from its prior estimate of 1.8%. Growth will stabilize at around 2.6% annually from 2026 onwards. On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the NZ economy to grow by 1.9% for the whole year of 2025 and another 2.4% in 2026.
The NZ economy contracted by 1.4% during 2020, mainly due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, in contrast to its robust economic performance in the past decade, with growth of 2.9% in 2019, 3.4% in 2018, 3.5% in 2017, 4% in 2016, 3.7% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2014. After the Asian financial crisis, New Zealand grew by an average of 3.8% per year from 1999 to 2007.
New Zealand is grappling with larger budget deficits and a postponed return to surplus, as an extended economic downturn and weak productivity dampen tax revenue. The government posted a budget deficit of NZ$12.85 billion (US$7.17 billion) for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, surpassing the NZ$11.07 billion (US$6.18 billion) deficit projected in the May's budget. This marks the fifth consecutive deficit for the New Zealand government.
Prior to this, the country's budget deficit had fallen to about 2.4% of GDP in 2023, following shortfalls of 2.7% of GDP in 2022, 1.3% in 2021, and 7.3% in 2020, based on figures from New Zealand Treasury.
New Zealand's general government net debt stood at about 39.2% of GDP last year, slightly down from 39.3% of GDP in 2023, but still higher than the 35.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021, 26.3% in 2020, and 18.6% in 2019.
"New Zealand's government debt is sustainable. However, debt increased more rapidly than in many advanced economies in recent years and will continue its upward trajectory absent decisive consolidation," said the IMF. "In IMF staff's view, restoring an operating surplus in the 4-year forecast period should remain the objective, underpinned by efficacious caps on operating allowances. This could strengthen credibility and preserve the policy space to respond to shocks."
Inflationary pressures continue to ease. Nationwide inflation was 2.2% in Q3 2024, down from 3.3% in the previous quarter and 5.6% in the same period last year. It was the lowest level recorded since Q1 2021. In fact, it is now well within the RBNZ's target range of 1% to 3%.
The labor market is weakening. Unemployment stood at 4.8% in Q3 2024, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the previous year, according to Statistics New Zealand. There were about 144,900 unemployed people in the country in Q3 2024.
Sources:
- REINZ - New Zealand House Price Index - November 2024 (Real Estate Institute of New Zealand): https://www.reinz.co.nz/
- Housing (M10) (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Property transfer statistics: June 2024 quarter (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Demographia International Housing Affordability 2024 Edition (Chapman University): https://demographia.com/
- New and existing residential mortgage lending by payment type (C32) (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- NZ the 'second most overvalued housing market in the world' (OneRoof): https://www.oneroof.co.nz/
- Financial Stability Report November 2024 (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- New residential mortgage standard interest rates (B20) (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Home consents up 4.8 percent in the month of November (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Building consents issued: November 2024 (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Dwelling and household estimates: December 2024 quarter (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Population and migration (M12) (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Net migration falls to under 50,000 (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Dwelling and household estimates: December 2024 quarter (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Gross rental yields in New Zealand: Auckland and 2 other cities (Global Property Guide): https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/
- November Property Price Index 2024 (Trade Me Property): https://www.trademe.co.nz/
- October Rental Price Index 2024 (Trade Me Property): https://www.trademe.co.nz/
- OCR 4.25% - OCR lowered further as inflation returns to target (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Financial Stability Report 11/2022 (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Reserve Bank activates Debt-to-Income restrictions (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions explained (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- IMF urges New Zealand to reconsider ban on foreigners' homeownership (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/
- New Zealand: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission (International Monetary Fund): https://www.imf.org/
- Gross Domestic Product (M5) (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- Inflation (Reserve Bank of New Zealand): https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
- New Zealand (International Monetary Fund): https://www.imf.org/
- Consumer price index (CPI) (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- Unemployment rate (Statistics New Zealand): https://www.stats.govt.nz/
- New Zealand Government Budget (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/
- New Zealand expects to post budget deficits over the five-year forecast period (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/.
- New Zealand budget deficit larger than forecast in 2023-24, accounts show (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/
- Pick a path: 'Alive in 25' or 'Thrive in 25'. Here's our outlook for 2025 and beyond (Kiwi Bank): https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/.
- New Zealand: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission (International Monetary Fund): https://www.imf.org/
- New Zealand Government Net Debt to GDP (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/