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Oct 06, 2013

Swiss housing market still rising


House prices in Switzerland continue to rise, though there are signs of slowdown in some market segments, according to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) September 2013 Quarterly Bulletin

  • Owner-occupied apartment prices rose 4.9% during the year to In Q2 2013, or (5.3% in real terms), up from 4% in Q2 2012.
  • Single-family home prices rose by 5.5% (5.9% in real terms). 
  • Rental apartments gained by 3.2% (3.7% in real terms) for old buildings, and 1% (1.4% in real terms) for new buildings, during the year to Q2 2013.  However rental apartments’ price growth has slowed slightly, when compared to the previous year’s y-o-y growth of 3.8% for old and 1.3% for new buildings.

Switzerland house prices

One factor has been an increase in the number of immigrants which has led to higher demand for houses. From 2007 to 2011, net migration into the country reached 365,500 people.

Another factor is that after the collapse of house prices in other countries, Swiss citizens and residents moved their investments back to the relatively stable domestic housing market.  There is also strong residential demand due to low mortgage interest rates, and low vacancy rates at around 0.96% of the housing stock in June 2013, according to the Federal Statistics Office (FSO)

From 2000 to 2012, the Swiss housing market had strong house price increases:

  • Owner-occupied dwelling prices rose 67.2% (54% in real terms)
  • Single-family home prices rose 44.9% (33.6% in real terms)
  • Rental apartments in old and new buildings had price growth of 44% (32.7% in real terms)

The Swiss economy emerged from recession in mid-2009, and expanded by 3.0% in 2010 and by 1.9% in 2011. However, economic growth slowed to 0.9% in 2012.

The economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2013.  Mortgage rates in Switzerland remain low, as a countermeasure to Swiss franc’s appreciation. The variable mortgage rate was 2.69% in July 2013, with three-month Libor moving in a range of from 0.0% to 0.25% in September 2013.

Have house prices risen too far?  According to the UBS Swiss real estate bubble index, the risk of the Swiss property market having a speculative bubble has fallen in Q2 2013, although the mortgage volume increased by 4.3% y-o-y and prices remain overvalued.

Developments pointing to overvaluation:

  • Prices continue to rise much more quickly than asking rents.
  • The house price to income ratio was 6.1 in Q2 2013, higher than the long-term average of 5.2.

Developments pointing to stability:

  • The contribution of the construction industry to GDP remained at 9%, lower than the long-term average of 11%.
  • Home prices are around 6% of consumer spending, lower than the price peak during the real estate bubble in Q3 1989.
  •  Mortgage lending slowed, although relative to income it remains significantly higher than the long-term trend.

Three factors prevent the Swiss housing market severely overheating, according to Philippe Kaufmann of Credit Suisse:

  • Relatively limited speculative transactions,
  • Many institutions curbed lending against the backdrop of tighter monitoring and growing risks,
  • No oversupply yet of residential property.

There was a surge in new apartments authorized in Q4 2012 by 41.9% to 22,264 units from the previous quarter and by 70.7% from the previous year. However during the fourth quarter of 2012, the total of new apartments completed in Switzerland actually dropped by 11.7% from a year earlier.

New units led the 2000s boom

Switzerland house prices detached homes

From 2000 up to present, the Swiss housing market enjoyed robust price increases, due to SNB’s monetary policy of easing in the late 90s and early 2000s. From a peak rate of more than 7% (1990 to 1992), mortgage rates dropped to an average of 4.3% in 2000-2001, and 3% from 2003 to 2006. This contributed greatly to the recovery of the housing market after the great housing crash of the 1990s, with residential property prices bottoming out between 1999 and 2000.

Switzerland property price index

Investors quickly snapped up new units when it was clear the housing market was recovering, as new units earn higher rents. Thus while the old rental apartments index rose 29.4% (18.9% in real terms) from 2000 to 2008, the new rental apartments index rose an astonishing 51% (38.6% in real terms), largely caused by a huge jump from mid-2001 to 2002, when the new rental apartments index rose 17.8% y-o-y, while the old rental apartments index rose by a mere 3%.

Switzerland price change rental apartments

Developers responded by increasing the supply of new rental units. Owners of old units also refurbished or renovated their units. The increase in competition led to slower price increases and eventually price falls for new rental units.

Interest rates to rise?

The period of low mortgage rates may be nearing its end. Comparis.ch noted that the fixed rate for mortgages over 5 years rose to 1.9% in Q2 2013, compared to 1.6% the previous quarter.  Rates for loans with maturity of 10 years rose to 2.6% from 2.2%.

Switzerland outstanding mortgage loans

In February 2013, the Federal Council decided to implement a countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) to prevent the real estate market from further overheating. As of September 30, 2013, banks are required to hold 1% of the risk-weighted assets in their mortgage portfolios.

Outstanding mortgage loans amounted to CHF 629.5 (€514.96) billion at end 2012, 6% up on the previous year, and up by 104% since 2000.

Switzerland mortgage interest rates

Interest rates started rising slightly in May 2007, but never rose above 3.5%.  Rate cuts were then implemented by central banks around the world, and SNB reduced its key rate to almost 0% (0.03% in March 2009).  Switzerland’s low interest rates were also a result of SNB’s attempt to contain Swiss franc appreciation.  The variable mortgage rate followed suit, and was 2.69% in July 2013, unchanged since December 2011.

Swiss lenders are generally conservative. Borrowers must produce down payments of 20% to 5% of loan value. In 2004, 91% of all bank mortgages had loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of less than two-thirds of the property value.

Foreigners are settling in Switzerland in large numbers

Switzerland has one of the highest rates of foreign populations among European countries. From around 14.7% in 1910, the proportion of foreigners in Switzerland rose to 23.3% in 2012, significantly affecting house price movements. Europeans account for 85% of the permanent foreign resident population.

Switzerland foreign residents

Foreign residents tend to remain ‘foreign’, because Switzerland has one of the world’s strictest citizenship requirements. It requires 12 years of “permanent, legal, notated” residency, full integration to Swiss culture and community, and mastery of one of the official languages.

The annual increase of permanent foreign residents has risen sharply, from an average of 21,360 1999-2006, to 67,622 in 2008, with some fallback after that.  In 2012 the net increase in permanent foreign residents was 53,975.

Due to the increase Switzerland introduced new quotas for EU citizens in 2013:

  • For the 17 older EU states, long-term residence permits are capped at 53,700 for 12 months from June 1.
  • The number of long term residence permits for immigrants from Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia will be capped at 2,180.
  • Immigration from the two newest EU states - Bulgaria and Romania, is severely restricted.

These quotas can last for only 12 months in accordance to the freedom of movement rules signed by Switzerland in 1999.

Foreign buying is severely restricted

The Swiss have long restricted the sale of property to foreigners. Cantonal authorization is needed before gaining title. Each canton has slightly different rules and the rules even vary from commune to commune within the canton. In addition, the Federal government has set an annual quota of permits for non-resident foreigners seeking to acquire property in Switzerland.

Generally speaking, foreigners have the largest choice of properties in French-speaking cantons. The most liberal canton is Vaud, which includes mountain resorts such as Villars, where foreigners can buy virtually any property and resell immediately.

Low rental yields; buy-to-let is not for foreigners

Rental yields in Switzerland’s major cities are quite low. In Geneva, home to several international organizations, i.e. Red Cross, WTO, WHO and ILO, rental apartments yield from 2.83% to 3.08%. Smaller apartments have higher rental yields as compared to their larger counterparts.

Zurich, Switzerland’s biggest city and the financial capital, have higher gross rental yields for apartments than in Geneva. Yields ranges from 3.35% to 3.5%, according to the Global Property Guide research of August 2012.

The buy-to-let market remains off-limits to foreigners, except for subsidized housing. The acquisition of residential real estate by foreigners for rental “requires prior authorization and is prohibited because there are no grounds for granting authorization,” according to the Federal Office of Justice.

A foreigner may be granted authorization to acquire a rental unit if he constructs subsidized housing, i.e. for the building of accommodation with a rent which is low and reasonable compared with similar premises in the same locality, or to acquire newly built housing of the same type when there is a local housing shortage. This reason applies only in cantons Fribourg, Geneva, Grisons, Jura, Neuchâtel, Ticino, Vaud and Valais.

Pro-tenant laws discourage owner-occupancy

Switzerland has one of the lowest owner-occupancy rates in Europe. However, there has been a trend to greater home ownership, which increased from 31% of the total in 1990, to 43.8% in 2011, according to Eurostat. Changes in pension laws helped - funds can now be withdrawn for house purchases from all pension accounts, both mandatory and voluntary.  However, the proportion of renters remains high at around 56.2%.

One reason is extremely pro-tenant laws. Rent increases must be justified by the landlord’s cost increases. Tenants are also protected against eviction.

Owner-occupancy is also discouraged by taxation; property is treated as an asset subject to both wealth and income tax for imputed rental income. Income tax rates in Switzerland can easily exceed 50%, among the highest in the world. Capital gains are also taxed at cantonal level, with rates differing by duration of ownership.

Switzerland’s economic outlook is improving

Switzerland gdp inflation

Switzerland’s economic growth was slow in 2012. Despite this, the country managed to keep its title for the 5th consecutive year as the world’s most competitive economy, followed by Singapore and Finland, based on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitive Index 2012-2013.

GDP growth for 2013 is expected to be from 1.5% to 2%.  GDP expanded by 2.5% in Q2 2013 as compared to the previous year

From 2004 to 2007 average annual GDP growth was 3.2%. The 2012 slowdown came after the economy recovered from its 2009 recession, posting 3% growth in 2010, slowing to 1.8% in 2011.
In 2011, Switzerland experienced a sharp currency appreciation as the franc rose past the US$1.10 mark in March 2011. The franc appreciated to US$1.20  in June 2011 as the Greek sovereign-debt crisis continued, and surged further to US$1.30 in August 2011 amidst the Euro crisis and US debt crisis.
Because of this, the SNB introduced measures to halt the franc’s rise:

  • SNB boosted its monetary base from CHF30 billion to CHF80 billion. Then in August 10, 2011, SNB announced a further increase to CHF120 billion.
  • Currency swaps were introduced
  • The key rate was slashed to close to zero in August 3, 2011. The bottleneck financing facility rate was 0.59% in June 2011.
  • The SNB announced an official 1.20 per euro cap on the strengthening franc.

The Swiss franc continues to trade below the SNB target, although the ceiling against the euro was briefly breached on April 5, 2012.

SNB expects inflation to fall to 0.2% in 2013, but to increase again to 0.3% in 2014.

In August 2013, the rate of unemployment reached 3.2%, according to SNB.

 




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