House pricesdown slightly by 0.35% y-o-y in 2019

Ireland’s housing market is cooling rapidly, amidst the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit. Residential property prices fell slightly by 0.35% during 2019, in contrast to y-o-y rises of 5.51% in 2018, 11.68% in 2017, 8.97% in 2016, 7.04% in 2015 and 18.27% in 2014. In fact, it was the country’s first annual house price decline since 2012. During the latest quarter, Irish house prices dropped 0.45%. 

Demand is now falling but supply is surging

In 2019, the total number of market-based household purchases of residential dwelling fell by 3.2% to 42,971 units from a year earlier, according to Ireland’s Central Statistics Office. Similarly, sales value dropped 1.4% y-o-y to €12.75 billion in 2019. In Dublin, the number of sales dropped 5.2% while sales value fell by 6.6% over the same period.

New dwelling completions surged by 18.3% to 21,241 units in 2019 from a year earlier, based on figures from the CSO.

Rents, rental yields: excellent yields at 7.18%

Dublin apartment costs are around €2,354 per sq. m. 

Ireland: typical city centre apartment buying price, monthly rent (120 sq. m)
	Buying price	Rate per month	Yield
Dublin	€ 282,451	€ 1,690	7.18%

Recent news: The Irish economy grew by about 6.1% in 2019, after GDP growth of 8.2% in 2018, 8.1% in 2017, 3.7% in 2016, 25.1% in 2014 (obviously a statistical artefact), 8.5% in 2014, and 1.4% in 2013, according to the Central Bank of Ireland. The strong growth, despite uncertain economic outlook, was mainly driven by companies nominally relocating in the country, such as Perrigo Co. and Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc, who are attracted by the country’s very open economy and by its relatively low tax inversion rate of 12.5%. 

Yet growth is expected to moderate to 4.8% this year and to 4.2% in 2021, amidst uncertain global environment, based on the central bank forecast.