Spain's Residential Property Market Analysis 2024

Spain's house price growth continues strong, despite falling property demand and weakening residential construction activity.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Historic Perspective
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Nationwide house prices rose robustly by 8.72% (7.11% inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024 from the previous year, according to figures from the online property information site Idealista. This followed a full-year growth of 8.16% (4.9% inflation-adjusted) in 2023.

Official figures released by the government also showed continued house price growth in the country, albeit at a more moderate pace. Data from the Bank of Spain indicated that Spanish house prices increased by 5.71% to €1,896 per square meter (sq.m) in Q2 2024 from a year earlier, following y-o-y growth of 5.32% in 2023, 3.25% in 2022 and 4.43% in 2021. When adjusted for inflation, house prices were up by a modest 2.2%.

Quarterly, nominal house prices rose by 1.6% in Q2 2024 but were unchanged when adjusted for inflation.

On the other hand, the nationwide Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE) house price index showed a stronger growth of 7.85% (4.27% inflation-adjusted) y-o-y in Q2 2024 - the biggest increase since Q2 2022. Quarter-on-quarter, the index rose by 3.58% (1.94% inflation-adjusted) in Q2 2024.

Spain's house price annual change

By property type:

• Existing dwellings: prices increased by 7.27% y-o-y in Q2 2024 (3.71% inflation-adjusted), up from annual growth of 5.65% in Q1 2024, 3.64% in Q4 2023, 3.22% in Q3 2023 and 2.87% in Q2 2023. On a quarterly basis, existing dwelling prices were up 3.73% (2.08% inflation-adjusted) during the latest quarter.
• New dwellings: prices rose strongly by 11.22% in Q2 2024 from a year earlier (7.54% inflation-adjusted), the biggest y-o-y price increase seen in recent history. Quarter-on-quarter, prices were up by 2.75% (1.12% inflation-adjusted) in Q2 2024.

By autonomous regions, Navarra saw the biggest y-o-y price growth in Q2 2024 at 10.30%, closely followed by Aragón (9.85%), Andalucía (9.53%), Ceuta (9.47%), Cantabria (8.64%), Valencian Community (8.63%), La Rioja (8.61%), Canarias (8.51%), and País Vasco (8.46%).

Strong house price increases were also registered in Murcia (7.49%), Asturias (7.37%), Madrid (7.18%), Melilla (7.18%), Castilla y León (6.87%), Galicia (6.72%), Cataluña (6.68%), Balears (6.18%), Extremadura (6.17%), and Castilla-La Mancha (5.28%).

Spain's housing market only returned to growth in 2015, having fallen by 36.3% (-42.9% inflation-adjusted) from Q3 2007 to Q1 2015, with existing home prices falling by as much as 43.1% (-49% inflation-adjusted), based on figures from INE. There were 24 consecutive quarters of y-o-y declines.

From 2015 to 2019, house prices increased by an annual average of 2.5% (1.6% inflation-adjusted). After a slight house price fall of 1.85% (-1.13% inflation-adjusted) in 2020 due to the adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Spanish housing market bounced back quickly in the following years, with prices rising by 4.43% in 2021 and 3.25% in 2022. Yet in real terms, house prices are down, amidst soaring inflation. In 2023, house prices increased by 5.32% (1.99% inflation-adjusted).

The continued increase in house prices is surprising given falling property demand. During 2023, home sales in Spain fell by 9.9% to 586,037 units as compared to a year earlier, according to Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE), following annual increases of 14.8% in 2022 and 34.8% in 2021 and y-o-y declines of 16.9% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2019.

Property demand remains weak this year. In the first seven months of 2024, home sales dropped slightly by 1.3% y-o-y to 356,525 units.

During 2023, the number of housing starts rose by 1.1% y-o-y to 98,040 units, an improvement from an annual decline of 3.5% in the prior year, based on figures from the Ministry of Development. Likewise, housing completions also increased slightly by 0.7% to 80,473 units in 2023, in contrast to a 4.9% drop in 2022.

However, there are signs that residential construction activity is slowing again this year, with housing starts falling by 9.6% y-o-y to 23,472 units in Q1 2024 and completions dropping by a huge 22.5% to 15,616 units.

During 2023, the economy expanded by a modest 2.5% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from annual growth of 5.8% in 2022 and 6.4% in 2021, on the back of continuing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent high inflation, and rising interest rates.

In the second quarter of 2024, Spain recorded a real GDP growth rate of 3.1% from a year earlier, surpassing the 2.9% projections and following a revised 2.5% expansion in the previous year. As such, the European Commission recently revised upwards its 2024 economic growth projections for Spain from 1.7% to 2.1%. Likewise, the Bank of Spain also upgraded its growth forecast this year from just 1.9% to 2.8%.

Demand Highlights

Land prices rising again, but demand continues to fall

The average price of urban land transactions in Spain stood at €167.4 per sq. m in Q1 2024, up by 8.3% from the previous quarter and by 13% in the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Development.

Thirteen of the 17 autonomous communities where figures are available saw land price increases in Q1 2024. Though, land price movements vary considerably:

• Madrid is outperforming the country, with the average urban land price in the city rising strongly by 26.3% y-o-y to €313.4 per sq. m, in Q1 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, land prices were up by 7.6%.
• In Andalucia, land prices rose by 11.4% y-o-y to an average of €188.1 per sq. m. On a quarterly basis, prices surged by 23.5% in Q1 2024.
• In Cataluña, the country's second-largest region, land prices fell slightly by 1.4% y-o-y to an average of €162.1 per sq. m in Q1 2024. It was also lower by 4.9% as compared to the previous quarter.
• In Castilla y Leon, the average land price was €84.9 per sq. m in Q1 2024, up by 9% from the previous quarter and by a huge 53.9% from a year ago.
• In Galicia, land prices dropped by 13.3% y-o-y to an average of €87.5 per sq. m in Q1 2024 and by 8.8% q-o-q.
• In Castile-La Mancha, the average land price increased 35.5% y-o-y to €105.3 per sq. m in Q1 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, prices were up by 14.7%.
• In the Canary Islands, the average land price increased by a meager 0.7% y-o-y to €227 per sq. m in Q1 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, prices were down by 9.5%.
• In Valencian Community, the average land price was €197.4 per sq. m in Q1 2024, up by 13.6% from the previous quarter and by 6.7% from the same period last year.

Demand for land in the country is falling sharply. During 2023, the number of land transactions fell by 15% y-o-y to 22,387 units, following an annual decline of 11.7% in 2022, according to the Ministry of Development. Likewise, the value of land transactions plunged by 26.5% y-o-y to €3.31 billion in 2023, in contrast to a modest growth of 3.7% in 2022.

The weakness of the market continued this year. In the first quarter of 2024, the number and value of land transactions fell by 2% and 4.2% y-o-y, respectively.

Property demand weakening

During 2023, home sales in Spain fell by 9.9% to 586,037 units as compared to a year earlier, according to Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE), following annual increases of 14.8% in 2022 and 34.8% in 2021 and y-o-y declines of 16.9% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2019.

Property demand remains weak this year. In the first seven months of 2024, home sales dropped slightly by 1.3% y-o-y to 356,525 units.

By property type:

• Existing dwellings: 283,866 units sold in Jan-Jul 2024, down by 3.4% from the previous year.
• New dwellings: 72,659 units sold in the first seven months of 2024, up by 7.7% from a year ago.

Yet ten of Spain's 19 autonomous communities and provinces saw an increase in demand. Navarra and Ceuta recorded the biggest growth in home sales in the first seven months of 2024 as compared to a year earlier, at 17.9% and 17.7%, respectively. They were followed by Galicia with a y-o-y sales increase of 11%, Castilla-La Mancha (8.2%), and Cantabria (7.3%). Modest to minimal sales growth was seen in Murcia (3.3%), Asturias (2.8%), La Rioja (2.2%), Aragón (1.3%), and Castilla y León (0.8%).

In contrast, Balears registered the biggest y-o-y sales decline of 12.8%, followed by País Vasco (-3.7%), Canarias (-3.5%), Madrid (-3.4%), Andalucia (-3.2%), Cataluña (-2.8%), Melilla (-2.7%), Valencian Community (-2.5%), and Extremadura (-2.4%).

Andalucia accounted for the biggest share in home sales in the first seven months of 2024 at 19.9%, followed by Valencian Community with 16.3% share, Cataluña with 15.7% share, and Madrid with 11.9% share.

The Spanish Golden Visa

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, foreign homebuyers accounted for about 12% to 20% of all home sales in Spain annually, sharply up from just a 4.24% share in 2009. In 2018, foreign homebuyers bought over 65,500 homes in Spain, up 7.4% from a year earlier, following annual growth of 13.7% in 2017. The Balearic Islands are especially attractive to foreigners with about one-third of total demand coming from foreigners, mainly due to its white-sand beaches and sunny Mediterranean landscape. It is followed by the Canary Islands, Valencian Community, Murcia, and Andalucia.

The Golden Visa scheme, applicable since 30th September 2013, has increased interest not only from the Middle East but also from Asia and Russia. Any non-EU national bringing more than €500,000 to invest is automatically granted a Spanish residency permit.

In 2019, Spain approved 1,422 Golden Visas to main applicants, by almost 20% from a year earlier. Of which, 681 Golden Visas were granted to foreigners via the real estate option - up 13.7% from the previous year and the highest figure ever recorded.

However, foreign homebuying slowed recently due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Golden Visas granted to foreigners were just 162 in H2 2020 and 232 in H1 2021 - two of the lowest ever seen since the program was launched. Interest from foreigners started to increase again in the second half of 2022, as the overall situation normalized. In H2 2021, Spain granted 833 Golden Visas to main applicants, up from 574 in H2 2019.

Overall, the country granted a total of 7,425 Golden Visas to main applicants from 2014 to 2021, with Chinese and Russians accounting for 32% and 25% shares, respectively.

While no official figures have been released yet for the past two years, interest in foreign residency in Spain through property investment is rising again. According to recent research conducted by Astons, the Spanish Golden Visa scheme is the best option for international investors looking for Golden Visas.

Foreigners have a right to buy and resell all kinds of property in Spain - residential, commercial, or land, with no limits.

However, there is a growing clamor to end the scheme. In February 2023, center-left political party Más País proposed a bill to scrap or drastically amend the country's Golden Visa program, arguing that it pushes house prices and is detrimental to the economy. Then in December, renewed support to end the program came from the country's government coalition partner Sumar. Early this year, the Spanish government proposed an amendment to abolish the program, citing concerns about its adverse impact on the housing market. The amendment is currently in the article amendment phase.

Supply Highlights

Residential construction activity slowing again

During 2023, the number of housing starts rose by 1.1% y-o-y to 98,040 units, an improvement from an annual decline of 3.5% in the prior year, based on figures from the Ministry of Development. Andalucía accounted for the biggest share in housing starts at 22.2%, followed by Madrid (15.2%), Cataluña (13%), and Valencian Community (11.9%).

Likewise, housing completions also increased slightly by 0.7% to 80,473 units in 2023, in contrast to a 4.9% drop in 2022.

However, there are signs that residential construction activity is slowing again this year. Housing starts fell by 9.6% y-o-y to 23,472 units in Q1 2024 while completions dropped by a huge 22.5% to 15,616 units over the same period.

Housing starts fell to an annual average of just 64,000 units in 2009-2021, from an annual average of 445,000 units in 1995-2008. Similarly, completions also dropped to an average of 64,000 units annually in 2011-2021, from 419,000 units in 1997-2010.

Currently, Spain's total housing stock totaled more than 26.9 million units by end-2023, up slightly by 0.3% from a year earlier. Andalucia accounted for the biggest share of 17.2%, followed by Cataluña (15.3%), Valencian Community (12.4%), and Madrid (11.7%).

Rental Market

Moderate to good rental yields

Gross rental yields on property in Spain stood at 5.93% in Q3 2024, down from 6.17% in Q1 2024 and 6.09% in Q3 2023, according to research conducted by the Global Property Guide in September 2024.

In the country's major cities:

• In Madrid, apartments offer gross rental yields ranging from 2.35% to 7.15%, with a city average of 5.49% in Q3 2024.
• In Barcelona, gross rental yields for apartments range from 3.74% to 10.32%, with a city average of 5.49%.
• Valencia offers rental returns ranging from 3.47% to 8.11%, with a city average of 6.66%.
• In Córdoba, apartment rental yields are around 4.4% to 6.92%, with a city average of 5.88%.
• In Alicante, gross rental yields range from 4.57% to 6.58%, with a city average of 6.09%.
• Seville apartments offer rental returns from 3.53% to 5.76%, with a city average of 4.94%.
• In Palma de Mallorca, rental yields range from 4.91% to 5.42%, with a city average of 5.16%.
• In Murcia, rental yields range from 3.62% to 8.27%, with a city average of 7.12% in Q3 2024.
• In Malaga, rental yields range from 3.73% to 6.16%, with a city average of 5.09%.
• In Marbella, apartments offer rental yields ranging from 3.58% to 5.81%, with a city average of 4.94%.

Rent increase cap set at 3% in 2024

Recently, the Spanish government announced a rent increase cap of 3% in 2024, up from the prior year's 2%.

• For large homeowners or those with more than ten properties, the limit will be 3%. Even if there is agreement on the increase, it can never be higher than the set cap.
• For small owners or those with less than ten properties, the rent increase will be agreed upon by both parties. If there is no agreement, the increase will be a maximum of 3%.

In the past two years, the Spanish government implemented a rent increase cap of a maximum of 2% to help protect the 30% of people who rent properties in Spain, shielding them from the adverse impact of surging inflation.

Before the rent increase cap, many landlords could by law, increase rents on a yearly basis based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure that represents inflation. For instance, if the rental agreement was due to be renewed and the inflation rate for the year was 10%, then the landlord could raise the rent by a maximum of 10%.

Mortgage Market

New mortgage loans falling, size of the mortgage market continues to shrink

During 2023, the total amount of new home mortgages in Spain dropped 19.5% y-o-y to €54.11 billion, according to INE figures, in contrast to annual growth of 17% in 2022 and 26.3% in 2021.

Similarly, the total number of new mortgage loans fell by 17.9% to 381,064 last year compared to a year earlier, after rising by 11% in 2022 and 23.8% in 2021. This was also far below the annual average of 1.13 million new home mortgages granted from 2003 to 2008.

Then in the first seven months of 2024, the amount of new home mortgages declined further by 1.4% y-o-y to €32.48 billion, and the number of new mortgages continued to decline by 1.1% to 229,498.

As a result, the total value of mortgage loans outstanding declined by 1% to €495.91 billion in July 2024, following y-o-y falls of 3.2% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2022, and an annual increase of 1.2% in 2021. Before this, total mortgages outstanding suffered an average decline of nearly 3% from 2012 to 2020.

The size of the mortgage market as a percent of GDP stood at about 34% of GDP in 2023, down from 38.1% of GDP in 2022, 42% in 2021, and 45.1% in 2020, based on estimates from the Global Property Guide. This is also far from the annual average of 60% of GDP from 2007 to 2014.

Spanish interest rates falling gradually

Following the ECB repo rate, interest rates in Spain have generally increased sharply in the past two years. However, with the recent ECB policy shift amidst easing inflationary pressures, mortgage interest rates are now gradually falling.

In August 2024, the average interest rate for new housing loans in Spain was 3.38%, down from 3.93% a year earlier but still up from 2.03% two years ago, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

By initial rate fixation (IRF):

• Floating rate and up to 1-year IRF: 4.26% in August 2024, slightly down from 4.55% in the same period last year but still far higher than the 2.13% two years earlier
• 1-5 years IRF: 4.12%, down from 4.66% in the previous year but still up from 2.27% two years ago
• 5-10 years IRF: 4.22% in August 2024, slightly up from 4.03% a year earlier but down from 4.59% two years ago
• Over 10 years IRF: 2.88%, down from 3.22% in August 2024 but up from 1.81% in August 2023

For outstanding housing loans, the average interest rate was 3.6% in August 2024, up from 3.44% in the previous year and 1.43% two years ago.

By maturity:

• Up to 1-year maturity: 4.04% in August 2024, higher than the 3.97% in August 2023 and 1.85% in August 2022
• 1-5 years maturity: 6.23%, up from 5.89% in the previous year and 4.55% two years ago
• Over 5 years maturity: 3.59%, up from 3.43% a year earlier and 1.43% two years ago

Spain's housing market has traditionally been extremely vulnerable to interest rate changes, given that before 2004 more than 80% of new mortgages had IRF of less than 1 year, a proportion which rose to 90% from 2005 to 2006.

However, there has been a decline in the share of adjustable-rate mortgages in recent years. In July 2024, fixed-rate mortgages represented 59% of all new loans contracted, up from 54.2% in 2023 but down from 65.8% in 2022, according to INE figures.

Foreclosures continue to fall

Foreclosures fell sharply by 12% y-o-y to 6,542 dwellings in the first half of 2024, following annual declines of 23.2% in 2023 and 17.2% in 2022, based on figures from INE.

By dwelling type:

• Existing dwellings: 5,906 units in H1 2024, down by 13% a year earlier, following annual falls of 20.5% in the prior year and 17.5% two years ago.
• New dwellings: 636 units, slightly down by 1.1% from the previous year, after falling by a huge 42.7% in 2023 and 15% in 2022.

However, there are wide regional variations. Of the autonomous regions and cities, Canarias registered the biggest y-o-y increase in foreclosures in H1 2024 of 78.2%, followed by Balears (29.9%), Murcia (28.8%), Cantabria (24.5%), Castilla y León (-22.3%), Castilla-La Mancha (22.2%), Galicia (12.1%), and Aragón (7.4%).

In contrast, Andalucía saw the biggest decline in foreclosures in H1 2024 from a year earlier, at 31.3%. It was followed by Cataluña (-19.7%), Valencian Community (-19.3%), Madrid (-14.5%), Navarra (-10%), Extremadura (-7.7%), and Asturias (-2.7%).

Andalucia, Cataluña, and Valencian Community accounted for about 59% of all foreclosures in the first half of 2024.

Historic Perspective

Spanish real house prices are still 34% below peak

From 1996 to 2007, Spain's national average house price rose by 197% (117% inflation-adjusted), one of Europe's highest house price increases. The price of coastal properties surged 250% (155% inflation-adjusted) from 1996 to 2007, as hundreds of thousands of foreigners, mainly from the UK, France, and Germany, bought the property.

In Madrid and Barcelona, house prices rose 188% (109% inflation-adjusted) from 1996 to 2007, while prices in other inner provinces rose by 175% (101% inflation-adjusted).

Suddenly, in 2008, a housing slump battered the Spanish economy and brought spiraling unemployment. Developers were left with blocks of unsold properties and massive debts. Despite the price rises in recent years, nationwide house prices in Q2 2024 were still about 10% (-34% inflation-adjusted) below peak levels.

Socio-Economic Contex

Economic conditions improving, labor market remains healthy

On January 23, 2014, Spain was the second euro zone country to exit its international bailout program, after Ireland. The Spanish economy has consistently outperformed much of Europe since. However, it has been a long, hard slog. Recession had been Spain's normal condition for years, due to the global financial meltdown and the Eurozone debt crisis.

The Spanish economy grew by an annual average of 2.8% from 2015 to 2019. Then the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, causing consumer demand and business investment to plunge. The economy contracted by a huge 11.2% in 2020 - one of the hardest hit in the region and the country's worst performance in recent history. Spain recorded a real GDP growth rate of 6.4% in 2021 and another 5.8% in 2022, enough to fully offset the decline in the preceding year.

During 2023, the economy expanded by a modest 2.5% from a year earlier, on the back of continuing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent high inflation, and rising interest rates.

"Amid the high interest rates environment and general uncertainty, overall investment growth was subdued, particularly in the second half of the year. This was notably the case for equipment and machinery as well as residential construction," said the European Commission.

In the second quarter of 2024, Spain recorded a real GDP growth rate of 3.1% from a year earlier, surpassing the 2.9% projections and following a revised 2.5% expansion in the previous year.

As such, the European Commission recently revised upwards its 2024 economic growth projections for Spain from 1.7% to 2.1%. Likewise, Bank of Spain also upgraded its growth forecast this year from just 1.9% to 2.8%.

In September 2024, nationwide inflation eased to 1.5%, down from 2.3% in the previous month and 3.5% in the same period last year, according to INE. While it remains above the average of just 1.1% from 2010 to 2020, it is now within the ECB's target of 2%. Inflation in Spain reached a nearly four-decade peak of 10.8% in July 2022.

Spain's budget deficit was equivalent to 3.6% of GDP in 2023, according to the Bank of Spain, an improvement from shortfalls of 4.8% of GDP in 2022, 6.7% in 2021, and 10.1% in 2020. However, it remains above the pre-pandemic deficit of 3.1% of GDP recorded in 2019. The government aims to reduce the deficit to about 3% of GDP this year.

"In 2024, the government deficit is set to keep decreasing to 3.0%, as energy-related measures are almost entirely phased out (by 0.7 pps. to 0.2% of GDP). Most measures of direct support for companies have already been unwound and the VAT cuts on electricity and gas as well as the reduction of the special tax on electricity are being gradually phased out," noted the European Commission.

The country's gross public debt declined to 107.7% of GDP in 2023, down from 115.9% in 2022, and is projected to stabilize further at around 105.5% of GDP in 2024, according to the European Commission. The debt level reached an all-time high of 120.3% of GDP in 2020 due to the introduction of pandemic-related stimulus packages.

The labor market continues to improve. The nationwide unemployment stood at 11.27% in Q2 2024, down from 12.29% in the previous quarter and 11.67% a year earlier, according to INE. Over the same period, male unemployment was 10.08% while female unemployment was higher at 12.61%.

Unemployment in Spain averaged about 22% from 2010 to 2017 before falling to an annual average of 14.1% in 2018-23.

Sources:

1. History of sale prices in Spain (Idealista): https://www.idealista.com/
2. House Price Index (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica): https://www.ine.es/
3. Housing Price Index (HPI). Base 2015. Second Quarter 2024 (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica): https://www.ine.es/
4. Statistics on Transfer of Property Rights (STPR). July 2024. Provisional data (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica): https://www.ine.es/
5. Foreclosure Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica): https://www.ine.es/
6. Mortgages. Monthly. (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica): https://www.ine.es/
7. Free housing (Ministerio De Transportes, Movilidad y Agenda Urban): https://apps.fomento.gob.es/
8. Urban land price statistics (Ministerio De Transportes, Movilidad y Agenda Urban): https://apps.fomento.gob.es/
9. Estimation of the housing stock (Ministerio De Transportes, Movilidad y Agenda Urban): https://apps.fomento.gob.es/
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11. Key interest rates (European Central Bank): https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
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13. Will Rental Housing Prices Rise in 2024? Limits and New Developments to Consider (Spainhouses.net): https://news.spainhouses.net/
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19. Spain Aims to Cut All Forms of Investor Visas, Portugal Reopens to Russians, Why Hungary's Golden Visa is Off To A Slow Start (LinkedIn): https://www.linkedin.com/
20. Spanish Govt Plans to Completely Shut Down Golden Visa Program (Schengen News): https://schengen.news/
21. Economic forecast for Spain (European Commission): https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
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