Chinese yields still very low

Residential Valuation Specialist | March 15, 2018

Last Updated: Mar. 15, 2018
BEIJING- Apartments PRICE/SQ.M. (US$) YIELD (p.a.) PRICE/SQ.FT. (US$)
TO BUY MONTHLY RENT TO BUY MONTHLY RENT
Chaoyang 11,829 20.66 2.10% 1,099 1.92
CBD and Jiangoumen 13,150 21.28 1.94% 1,222 1.98
Sanlitun 13,636 20.57 1.81% 1,267 1.91
SHANGHAI - Aapartments
Changning 12,153 22.85 2.26% 1,129 2.12
Huangpu 14,425 24.02 2.00% 1,340 2.23
Jing ´an 15,208 29.76 2.35% 1,413 2.76
Luwan 15,472 27.31 2.12% 1,437 2.54
Pudong 9,983 23.84 2.87% 927 2.21
Xuhui 12,272 30.13 2.95% 1,140 2.80
SHENZHEN - Apartments
Futian 10,544 16.85 1.92% 980 1.57
Nanshan 11,988 17.25 1.73% 1,114 1.60
Longhua 8,106 n.a. n.a. 753 n.a.
Chengdu - Apartments
Jinjiang 3,478 n.a. n.a. 323 n.a.
Wuhou 2,619 n.a. n.a. 243 n.a.
Qingyam 3,132 n.a. n.a. 291 n.a.
Chenghua 2,654 n.a. n.a. 247 n.a.
GUANGZHOU - Apartments
Haizhu 6,197 n.a. n.a. 576 n.a.
Tianhe 7,827 n.a. n.a. 727 n.a.
Yue Xui 7,782 n.a. n.a. 723 n.a.
All yields are gross - i.e., before taxes, repair costs, ground rents, estate agents fees, and any other costs. Net yields (what you´ll really earn) are typically around 1.5% to 2% lower.
Source: Global Property Guide and Fang Definitions: Data FAQ See also: Update Schedule

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When we first began to gather data on China, gross rental yields in all categories of Beijing condominiums were above 9%, and gross rental yields for villas in Beijing ranged from 9.5% to 13%. In Shanghai, returns were less stellar, with gross rental yields on apartments ranging from 5.4% to 7%.

Last year, we found that rental yields on almost all sizes of apartments in Beijing were below 2.5%, and in Shanghai below 3.2%. It is hard to escape the fact that prices have been climbing steeply, while rents have not moved much. Until 2008, apartments in most large cities in China had rental yields above 5%, a level which we generally consider ´safe´.

Yields below 3% are a danger signal. The Global Property Guide were the first to warn that a crash was likely in the Baltics in 2007. Then our signal was that yields had dropped below 3%. We gave similar warnings in Dubai.

China however is different. Although the Chinese property market is cooling, a crash in China is unlikely because of the firm hold that the authorities have on the financial system, and there are a raft of measures that the authorities can take very swiftly to encourage people to buy.

However many Chinese property investors are voting with their wallets, and buying properties in other countries. Increasingly this is causing Chinese authorities to try to stem the outward flow of money, and causing host communities to say enough is enough, for instance in Australia and New Zealand.