The Netherland's Residential Property Market Analysis 2024

After slowing last year, The Netherlands´ house price growth is gathering pace again, amidst recovering demand and weakening residential construction activity.

In Amsterdam, the capital, the price of existing homes rose by 5.24% in Q1 2024 from a year earlier (2.08% inflation-adjusted), in sharp contrast to a y-o-y fall of 5.59% (-9.57% inflation-adjusted) seen in Q1 2023, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Nationally, house prices were also up by 3.79% (0.67% inflation-adjusted) in Q1 2024, an improvement from a y-o-y decline of 1.09% (-5.26% inflation-adjusted) in the same period last year.

Quarter-on-quarter, house prices in the capital city increased by 2.17% (0.47% inflation-adjusted) in Q1 2024 while they were up by 2.33% (0.64% inflation-adjusted) on a national level.

Nationwide, the average purchase price for existing homes was €435,984 (US$473,326) in April 2024.

By property type, in Q1 2024:

  • Apartment prices rose by 5.1% y-o-y in Q1 2024, an improvement from the prior year´s 2.9% fall.
  • Terraced house prices were up by 5.4% from a year earlier, in contrast to a y-o-y decline of 1.6% in Q1 2023.
  • Detached house prices increased slightly by 0.5% y-o-y in Q1 2024, following an annual growth of 1.7% in Q1 2023.
  • Semi-detached house prices rose by a modest 2.4% y-o-y in Q1 2024, an improvement from the prior year´s 0.6% fall.
  • Corner houses saw an average price increase of 4% y-o-y in Q1 2024, following an annual price decline of 0.7% in the prior year.

The Netherland´s house price annual change

After a great housing boom (1995-2007), the Dutch housing market weakened in 2008 and only began to recover in 2014. From Q1 2014 to Q4 2019, house prices rose by almost 40% nationally, with very strong increases in Amsterdam (77.4% growth) and Rotterdam (61.8% growth). Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, nationwide house prices rose by a huge 27.3% from 2020 to 2021.

However, the housing market started to weaken in 2022, with nationwide house price growth decelerating to 5.1%. Then in 2023, house prices fell slightly by 0.6% - the first year of decline in a decade.

HOUSE PRICES, ANNUAL CHANGE (%)
Year Nominal Inflation-adjusted
2008 1.70 -0.24
2009 -5.69 -0.24
2010 -0.80 -2.68
2011 -4.11 -6.38
2012 -6.90 -9.52
2013 -3.71 -5.27
2014 1.87 1.16
2015 3.27 2.56
2016 6.73 5.69
2017 8.25 6.91
2018 8.39 6.31
2019 6.48 3.66
2020 8.77 7.68
2021 19.60 14.17
2022 5.14 -5.49
2023 -0.60 -1.39
Sources: Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Global Property Guide

Property demand is increasing again. In Q1 2024, dwelling sales rose by 9.9% to 44,441 units compared to a year earlier, following annual declines of 5.5% in the full year of 2023, 14.6% in 2022, and 4% in 2021, according to figures from CBS.

However, the overall economy continues to struggle. The Dutch economy grew by a minuscule 0.1% in 2023 from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from strong annual expansions of 4.3% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2021, according to figures released by the DNB. In Q1 2024, the economy contracted by 0.7% from a year earlier, its fourth consecutive quarter of economic contraction.

The economy is expected to gradually improve, with projected real GDP growth rates of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, according to the European Commission (EC).

History of the Netherlands´ housing boom and bust

Median house prices in the Netherlands rose by 104% (73% inflation-adjusted) from Q1 1996 to Q2 2001, or by an average of 21% annually (14.6% inflation-adjusted). Amsterdam house prices rose by about 132% (96% inflation-adjusted) during this period. This was a time when real private sector wages rose by 3.6% annually.

House prices continued to rise until Q1 2008, alternating between slow growth and rapid growth.

However, with the global financial crisis, coupled with the Eurozone debt crisis, the Dutch housing market went into a tailspin. By 2013 things were so bad that the total number of dwellings sold had dwindled by almost half, to around 110,094 units, compared to an average of 206,000 dwellings sold annually from 2005 to 2007.

CHANGES IN AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES (%)
  Economic boom (Q1 96-Q2 01) Political instability, economic downturn (Q3 01-Q1 03) Economic recovery (Q2 03-Q2 06) Political instability, economic growth (Q3 06-Q4 07) Global financial crisis, eurozone debt crisis (Q1 08-Q4 13) Economic growth (Q1 14-Q4 19) Global pandemic (Q1 20-Q4 21) Post-pandemic (Q1 22-Q4 23)
Netherlands 104.4 4.7 15.3 3.8 -15.6 39.8 27.3 0.3
Groningen 100.1 8.7 16.9 2.9 -12.7 36.2 32.3 2.1
Zuid-Holland 98.9 3.3 16.1 2.2 -10.5 44.7 25.7 0.8
Noord-Brabant 107.9 5.8 13.6 3.8 -20.4 32.7 25.2 1.7
Amsterdam 131.6 -6.5 5.6 12.1 -17.7 77.4 20.0 -2.8
Rotterdam 109.4 1.9 21.2 6.7 -11.9 61.8 26.5 -0.2
Sources: Statistics Netherlands, Global Property Guide

In 2014 the Dutch housing market started to recover. From Q1 2014 to Q4 2019, house prices rose by almost 40% nationally, with very strong increases in Amsterdam (77.4% growth) and Rotterdam (61.8% growth). Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the housing market remains resilient, with nationwide house prices rising by another 27.3% from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021.

Netherlands House Price Index graph

Then in 2022, house price growth in the country slowed to 5.1%. House prices rose by just 1.2% in Amsterdam and 2.5% in The Hague, and declined by 1.2% in Utrecht.

The housing market dramatically slowed in 2023, amidst rapidly rising interest rates and a slowing economy. Nationwide house prices fell slightly by 0.6% (-1.4% inflation-adjusted) last year.

Demand is gradually recovering

During 2023, the total number of dwellings sold in the Netherlands fell by 5.5% y-o-y to 182,403 units, following annual declines of 14.6% in 2022 and 4% in 2021, according to figures from CBS.

By dwelling type:

  • Apartment sales fell by 2.4% y-o-y to 52,658 units in 2023, after declining by 7.7% in 2022.
  • Terraced house sales dropped by 6.5% y-o-y to 61,321 units in 2023, following a 13.6% decline in the prior year.
  • Detached house sales were down by 6.9% y-o-y to 23,419 units last year, after a huge fall of 20.8% during 2022.
  • Semi-detached house sales dropped 5.6% y-o-y to 19,064 units in 2023, after falling by 15.7% in 2022.
  • Corner house sales declined by 4.8% y-o-y to 24,431 units in 2023, following a 15.5% fall in the prior year.

However this year, property demand is showing some signs of improvement. In Q1 2024, dwelling sales rose by 9.9% to 44,441 units compared to a year earlier.

The time-to-sell, which is the total number of days from the moment a house is put up for sale to the date of sale, stood at 34 days in Q1 2024, up from 30 days in the previous quarter but down from 42 days a year earlier, based on figures released by NVM. Mid-terraced houses had the lowest time-to-sell at just 25 days in Q1 2024, while detached houses had the longest, at 66 days.

Netherlands Number of Dwellings Sold graph

Residential construction activity weakens

During 2023, dwelling completions in the country fell slightly by 1.2% to 73,638 units, following annual increases of 4.7% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2021 and a decline of 2.2% in 2020, based on figures from Statistics Netherlands.

From an annual average of 76,300 units from 2000 to 2009, completions dropped sharply to an average of 60,000 units annually from 2010 to 2022 - mainly due to post-2010 changes in the planning system - which partly explains the rapid rise in house prices in recent years. Pandemic-related restrictions in the past three years weakened residential construction further.

There were 30,501 housing units put up for sale in Q1 2024, down by a huge 15% from the previous quarter but up by 4% compared to the same period last year, according to NVM.

The total housing stock in the Netherlands reached 8,204,049 units in 2023, up slightly by 1% from the prior year. Single-family homes accounted for about 63.5% of total stock.

Netherlands Dwelling Completions graph

Mortgage interest rates are rising rapidly

In March 2024, the average interest rate for new housing loans surged to 3.79%, up from 3.55% a year earlier and 1.77% two years ago.

For new housing loans, by initial rate fixation (IRF):

  • Floating rate and IRF up to 1 year: 5.12% in March 2024, far higher than the 4.26% in March 2023 and 1.69% in March 2022
  • IRF 1-5 years: 4.16% in March 2024, slightly down from 4.31% in the previous year but still far higher than the 1.69% recorded two years ago
  • IRF 5-10 years: 3.6%, up from 3.47% in the previous year and 1.66% in the two years prior
  • IRF 10 years or more: 2.96%, at par with the 2.99% a year earlier but up from 1.87% two years ago

Netherlands Interest Rates for New Housing Loans graph

For outstanding housing loans, the average interest rate was 2.58% in March 2024, slightly up from 2.4% in March 2023 and from 2.28% two years ago.

Outstanding housing loans, by maturity:

  • Original maturity of less than or equal to 1 year: 5.4% in March 2024, sharply up from 3.77% in the previous year and 1.87% two years ago
  • Original maturity of 1-5 years: 4.5% in March 2024, up from 3.53% in the previous year and 2.02% two years earlier
  • Original maturity of more than 5 years: 2.56%, slightly up from 2.38% in March 2023 and from 2.28% in March 2022

Netherlands Interest Rates for Outstanding Housing Loans graph

New housing loans improving

In Q1 2024, new housing loans drawn rose by 11.9% to €21.61 billion (US$23.47 billion) as compared to the same period last year, based on DNB figures. This is an improvement from the huge decline of 34.2% for the whole year of 2023.