Canada's Residential Property Market Analysis 2024
Tight affordability conditions and insufficient new development falling short of meeting the growing demographic demand slow the recovery of the Canadian housing market; however, increased sales activity and upward trending prices are anticipated in 2025 as lending interest rates drop further.
This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the Canadian housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.
Table of Contents:
- Housing Market Snapshot
- Historic Perspective
- Demand Highlights
- Supply Highlights
- Rental Market
- Mortgage Market
- Socio-Economic Context
Housing Market Snapshot
Canada's house prices have remained relatively flat throughout 2024, primarily due to higher interest rates, ongoing affordability challenges, and a cautious economic environment. In September 2024, the seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank House Price Index representing the rate of change of single-family home prices across 11 main metropolitan areas across Canada demonstrated only a marginal 0.96% year-on-year growth.
Increases were observed in seven of the 11 cities making up the composite index. Calgary led the way with a 10.42% year-on-year price rise, followed by Quebec City with an 8.97% gain and Montreal with 6.92%. On the other hand, prices fell in Toronto (-2.60%), Hamilton (-2.37%) and Victoria (-0.18%), and remained stable in Vancouver. "It's taking longer for activity and home prices to bounce back in major cities where affordability challenges are greatest", commented Phil Soper, president, and chief executive officer at Royal LePage, the country's leading real estate brokerage service provider.
Canada's house price annual change
At the same time, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), monitoring residential average sale prices across the range of property types nationwide, reported the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sales price going up by 2.15% in September 2024 in year-on-year terms reaching CAD 669,630 (USD 494,338). In their most recent quarterly forecast, CREA anticipated the national average home price to edge up 0.9% on an annual basis to CAD 683,200 (USD 504,356) in 2024 and by 4.4% to CAD 713,375 (USD 526,631) in 2025.
Data Source: CREA.
On a regional level, the highest average residential sales prices as of September 2024 were observed in British Columbia (CAD 948,266/USD 700,034), followed by Ontario (CAD 851,478/USD 628,583). The most dynamic year-on-year price increases, on the other hand, were registered in Alberta (at 9.8%), followed by Quebec and New Brunswick with 6.7% each. CREA anticipates Quebec and Alberta to record the highest year-on-year price gains in 2024, while the growth in British Columbia is projected to stay negative before rebounding in 2025.
Average residential prices by province:
Average price of homes sold, Sep 2024 |
YoY, Sep 2024 vs Sep 2023 |
Annual % change forecast, 2024 |
Annual % change forecast, 2025 |
|
British Columbia | CAD 948,266 (USD 700,034) |
-2.2% | -1.3% | 8.5% |
Alberta | CAD 491,937 (USD 363,160) |
9.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% |
Saskatchewan | CAD 343,800 (USD 253,802) |
5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
Manitoba | CAD 362,137 (USD 267,339) |
3.0% | 9.9% | 2.1% |
Ontario | CAD 851,478 (USD 628,583) |
0.2% | 1.5% | 9.9% |
Quebec | CAD 538,190 (USD 397,305) |
6.7% | 15.7% | 4.7% |
New Brunswick | CAD 309,600 (USD 228,555) |
6.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
Nova Scotia | CAD 410,900 (USD 303,337) |
3.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
Prince Edward Island | CAD 372,200 (USD 274,767) |
0.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% |
Newfoundland & Labrador | CAD 306,000 (USD 225,897) |
5.4% | 0.2% | 2.4% |
Note: BOC exchange rate as of September 2024, USD 1 = CAD 1.3546. | ||||
Data Source: CREA. |
Historic Perspective:
Shifting Demand and Affordability Challenges In Key Cities
In the mid-2000s, the Canadian housing market saw strong growth supported by a robust economy, low unemployment, and favorable borrowing conditions. Construction starts in the segment of single-detached homes peaked at 54,146 units in 2004. House prices increased significantly, particularly in Vancouver and Calgary, where the Teranet-National House Price Index surged by 20.21% and 44.50% year-on-year in 2006, driven by a booming energy sector and rising incomes. At the same time, price increases in cities like Toronto and Vancouver began to raise affordability concerns.
The 2008 global financial crisis marked a turning point, though Canada fared better than the US. Housing started to decline sharply, especially for single-detached homes, which fell to 32,133 units in 2008 from 46,171 units in 2007. At the same time, apartments started to expand by over 30% year-on-year to 60,178 units, reflecting a shift to more affordable housing options. The Teranet index showed price declines, with the 11-city composite dropping -1.66% year-on-year in 2008, led by declines in Calgary (-9.10%) and Vancouver (-4.25%).
The post-crisis rebound was quick, supported by low interest rates and government stimulus. By 2010, housing starts, especially in multi-unit dwellings, recovered, pointing to the growing relevance of denser living options. The Teranet index indicated moderate price gains, with Toronto's prices rising by 9.60% year-on-year in 2011. From 2011 to 2015, the market saw steady price increases driven by immigration, urbanization, and low mortgage rates. Vancouver and Toronto experienced strong gains, with Vancouver's prices up 13.90% annually in 2015 due to foreign investment and limited supply.
To address overheating concerns, the government introduced cooling measures, including mortgage stress tests in 2016 and foreign buyer taxes. These policies had a dampening effect, especially in Vancouver, where price growth slowed to -1.01% year-on-year in 2018. Nonetheless, demand for urban housing remained strong, with apartment starts consistently exceeding 60,000 units annually from 2016, reflecting affordability challenges and urbanization.
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 initially slowed the market, but record-low interest rates and increased household savings soon led to a housing boom. The shift to remote work drove demand for larger homes, pushing the Teranet index up by 17.11% annually in 2021, with notable gains in Toronto (19.20%) and Ottawa (15.86%). Apartment starts also surged, reaching 91,229 units in 2021, highlighting strong demand for rental and multi-family properties.
By 2022, rising inflation led the Bank of Canada (BOC) to raise interest rates, putting strain on the housing market. Single-detached starts dropped to 21,016 units in 2023, reflecting decreased affordability due to higher borrowing and construction costs. The Teranet index showed a moderated price increase of 3.11% year-on-year in 2023, with some cities like Edmonton experiencing slight declines.
Note: Year-on-year change as of December.
Data Sources: Teranet and National Bank of Canada.
Note: Inclusive of all housing tenures (i.e., freehold, condominium, rental and co-op).
Data Source: CMHC.
Demand Highlights:
Home Sales on Holding Pattern, Stronger Increase in Activity Expected in 2025
In the wake of the BOC's third interest rate cut this year, nationwide home sales, as reported by CREA, reached 39,949 units in September 2024, marking a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.89% from the previous month and a 6.20% rise year-on-year. This was the highest monthly home sales volume since July 2023, although still significantly below the 10-year monthly moving average of 42,922 units. The growth was led by the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal, and Quebec City, as well as Greater Vancouver and Victoria.
"Sales gains are now three for three in the months following interest rate cuts, which is a trend even though the increases weren't headline-grabbing," commented Shaun Cathcart, CREA's Senior Economist. "That said, with the pace of rate cuts now expected to be much faster than previously thought, it's possible some buyers may choose to hold off on a purchase for now. This could further boost the rebound expected in 2025 at the expense of the last few months of this year."
Data Source: CREA.
In response to the most recent market dynamics, CREA revised its quarterly sales forecast in October. The association anticipates a shift from a gradual improvement in sales to a holding pattern, expected to persist until next spring, with a sharper rebound forecast thereafter. For 2024, CREA projects 468,900 properties to change hands, reflecting a 5.2% increase from 2023 - a downward revision from earlier predictions of a 6.1% increase in July and a 10.5% increase in April. "CREA's previous forecast assumed a gradual return of buyers into the market starting with the first interest rate cuts this summer, but the market has seen little movement. It's possible the type of buyer who was, until recently, entering the market with a three-year fixed rate mortgage has decided to hold off for better rates that now seem just around the corner," stated their release.
Looking ahead, nationwide home sales are expected to grow by 6.6% in 2025 to 499,800 units, driven by further interest rate reductions and a resurgence of buyer demand. "With rates dropping, we see positive signs for sidelined buyers. As confidence grows and buyers anticipate rising prices, we expect a significant increase in activity. <…> The stage is set for a busy year ahead," said Phil Soper of Royal LePage.
Data Source: CREA.
Regionally, the most substantial increases in home sales for 2024 are expected in Quebec (15.7%), Manitoba (9.9%), and Alberta (8.4%). In contrast, British Columbia is projected to experience a 1.3% year-on-year decline in sales volume this year, followed by an anticipated 8.5% rebound in 2025.
Seasonally adjusted annual home sales by province:
Residential Sales, 2023 |
YoY, 2023 vs 2022 |
Residential Sales, 2024 (f) |
YoY, 2024 vs 2023 (f) |
Residential Sales, 2025 (f) |
YoY, 2025 vs 2024 (f) |
|
British Columbia | 73,087 | -9.2% | 72,121 | -1.3% | 78,225 | 8.5% |
Alberta | 77,283 | -9.1% | 83,761 | 8.4% | 86,032 | 2.7% |
Saskatchewan | 14,958 | -3.3% | 15,938 | 6.6% | 16,887 | 6.0% |
Manitoba | 14,155 | -10.0% | 15,556 | 9.9% | 15,875 | 2.1% |
Ontario | 162,932 | -12.3% | 165,363 | 1.5% | 181,674 | 9.9% |
Quebec | 75,935 | -12.8% | 87,823 | 15.7% | 91,936 | 4.7% |
New Brunswick | 9,078 | -13.7% | 9,250 | 1.9% | 9,574 | 3.5% |
Nova Scotia | 10,275 | -17.4% | 10,894 | 6.0% | 11,208 | 2.9% |
Prince Edward Island | 1,866 | -5.4% | 2,003 | 7.3% | 2,050 | 2.3% |
Newfoundland | 5,360 | -15.1% | 5,372 | 0.2% | 5,500 | 2.4% |
Data Source: CREA. |
"So far, the recovery in sales has not generated too much pressure on house prices, but we expect these supportive factors [declining interest rates and easier mortgage underwriting conditions] will eventually lead to a tightening of market conditions, thereby leading to an upward trend in house prices. However, still very tight affordability conditions for home ownership will slow the recovery. And the heightened uncertainty from recent geopolitical events can also weigh on potential buyers' confidence," summarized Patrick Perrier in Scotiabank's latest Housing News Flash.
Supply Highlights:
Subdued Housing Starts Deepen Supply Gap
According to seasonally adjusted data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), nationwide housing starts rose by 5.07% month-over-month in September 2024, reaching an annualized rate of 223,808 units, up from 213,012 units in August. Despite the month-on-month rebound, the indicator showed a year-on-year decline of 15.95%. In its latest housing market outlook, the CMHC forecasts a drop in housing starts in 2024, with a baseline annual estimate of 224,485 units, continuing a downward trend from the record-high levels seen in 2021. A slight recovery is anticipated in 2025-2026, with starts expected to reach around 232,000 units annually, supported by lower interest rates, moderated construction cost growth, and government regulatory support.
Year-to-date figures, unadjusted for seasonal variations, indicate a modest 1.8% increase in actual housing starts for the period from January to September, rising from 177,571 units in 2023 to 180,733 units in 2024. Despite this marginal growth, the CMHC cautions that current housing start levels remain insufficient to address Canada's housing supply challenges. Kevin Hughes, Deputy Chief Economist at the CMHC, noted: "Despite the increase in housing starts in September, we remain well below what is required to restore affordability in Canada's urban centers."
Data Source: CMHC.
Regionally, Alberta, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces experienced growth in both multi-unit and single-detached housing starts, contributing to the slight national increase. Conversely, Ontario and British Columbia saw significant year-over-year declines of 15.66% and 8.07%, respectively.
Actual year-to-date housing starts by province:
Housing Starts, Q1-Q3 2024 |
YoY, Q1-Q3 2024 vs Q1-Q3 2024 |
|
British Columbia | 33,980 | -8.07% |
Alberta | 34,440 | 36.24% |
Saskatchewan | 3,135 | -4.07% |
Manitoba | 5,244 | -3.46% |
Ontario | 58,039 | -15.66% |
Quebec | 32,899 | 15.38% |
New Brunswick | 4,516 | 43.59% |
Nova Scotia | 5,944 | 31.10% |
Prince Edward Island | 1,337 | 50.90% |
Newfoundland | 1,199 | 62.91% |
Data Source: CMHC. |
Among major metropolitan areas, Toronto reported a 20% decline in year-to-date housing starts, decreasing from 39,980 units in 2023 to 31,948 units in 2024. Similarly, Vancouver experienced a 19% drop, with starts falling from 25,217 units to 20,503 units over the same period. These declines are partly attributed to exceptionally strong housing starts in these metros during 2023, which set a high baseline. In contrast, Montreal saw a 15% increase in starts, recovering from historically low construction levels in 2023. Edmonton and Calgary also reported substantial year-over-year increases of 47% and 23%, respectively. Despite these gains, the CMHC emphasizes that, when adjusted for population size, the combined housing starts fall short of meeting the growing demographic demand.
Overall, insufficient housing supply remains a critical aspect of Canada's housing market. Considering household formation trends and the current rate of housing construction, the CMHC estimates that an additional 3.45 million homes, beyond current projections, are needed by 2030 to restore housing affordability in the country. The largest supply gaps are expected in Ontario (1.48 million units), Quebec (0.86 million units), and British Columbia (0.61 million units), as identified in the CMHC 2023 report.
The Government of Canada has introduced a range of initiatives designed to increase housing supply and address the ongoing housing crisis. The Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 report by PwC reveals that market stakeholders are generally optimistic about policies such as the Housing Accelerator Fund, which aims to streamline approval processes and expedite the construction of 100,000 homes. Additionally, the removal of the GST on new rental developments is expected to reduce costs for builders. The Apartment Construction Loan Program, which supports the creation of affordable rental units, has also been positively received by interviewees. While these efforts aim to alleviate supply constraints, experts caution that their success will depend on effective collaboration across all levels of government to address existing construction bottlenecks.
Rental Market:
Slowdown in Rental Growth and Uneven Regional Performance
According to the research carried out by the Global Property Guide in Q2 2024, gross rental yields for residential units in Canada averaged 5.10%, 0.27 percentage points up from 4.83% previously reported in Q3 2023. Regional performance varied, with the highest yields among the assessed submarkets seen in Calgary (6.29%) and Ottawa (5.73%), while Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto, and Hamilton all showed yields below 5%.
Further developments in the rental yield dynamic are likely to be affected by the apparent shift in the rental inflation trend. According to a recent report from the listing platform Rentals.ca, rental growth across Canada slowed down substantially in the second half of the year, which coincided with a significant cutback in net inflows of non-permanent residents.
In September 2024, the average listed rent for all types of housing combined showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase, down from 9.3% in May 2024 and 11.1% in September 2023. The slowdown was observed in all property categories. However, purpose-built rental apartments still showed a positive price dynamic (+5.4% year-on-year in September), while condominiums and houses/townhouses demonstrated actual declines in asking rents of 1.7% year-on-year and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively.
Data Source: Rentals.ca
Despite the recent deceleration, average listed rents reported by Rentals.ca are now about 25% higher than three years ago, reaching CAD 2,138 (USD 1,578) for purpose-built rental apartments, CAD 2,296 (USD 1,695) for condos, and CAD 2,305 (USD 1,702) for houses/townhouses nationwide in September 2024.
Regionally, the highest average rents for apartments and condos were reported in British Columbia, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, while other provinces remained more affordable, with rents below the national average. The year-on-year dynamic also varied notably among the main submarkets. Compared to the levels reported during the same period a year ago, Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan showed double-digit increases, while in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec the asking rents actually dropped.
Average listed rent for apartments and condos in selected submarkets:
September 2024 CAD |
September 2024 USD |
YoY Sep 2024 vs Sep 2023 |
September 2023 CAD |
September 2023 USD |
|
Alberta | CAD 1,835 | USD 1,355 | 10.3% | CAD 1,663 | USD 1,228 |
British Columbia | CAD 2,570 | USD 1,897 | -3.2% | CAD 2,656 | USD 1,961 |
Manitoba | CAD 1,638 | USD 1,209 | 14.5% | CAD 1,431 | USD 1,056 |
Nova Scotia | CAD 2,344 | USD 1,730 | 12.3% | CAD 2,088 | USD 1,541 |
Ontario | CAD 2,380 | USD 1,757 | -4.3% | CAD 2,486 | USD 1,835 |
Quebec | CAD 1,967 | USD 1,452 | -0.2% | CAD 1,970 | USD 1,454 |
Saskatchewan | CAD 1,378 | USD 1,017 | 23.6% | CAD 1,115 | USD 823 |
Canada | CAD 2,159 | USD 1,594 | 3.9% | CAD 2,078 | USD 1,534 |
Note: BOC exchange rate as of September 2024, USD 1 = CAD 1.3546. | |||||
Data Source: Rentals.ca. |
"Rent declines for apartments in Ontario and B.C. occurred across all unit types, with B.C. rents down the most for one-bedroom units (-4.9%) and Ontario rents falling fastest for two-bedroom units (-4.9%). In Quebec, the decline in apartment rents was focused on one-bedroom units (-2.2%). In Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, three-bedroom rents performed best in September," said the report from Rentals.ca.
According to the platform's analysis, rental growth in Canada has been primarily driven by relatively more affordable submarkets, while average rents in more expensive locations stalled or went down. Of the six largest Canadian cities, only Edmonton showed a strong growth in asking rents for apartments and condos in September 2024 (+12% year-on-year). The capital city of Ottawa demonstrated only a marginal increase (+0.8% year-on-year). At the same time, Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, and Calgary all posted rent declines at -9.5%, -8.1%, 2.0%, and 2.0% year-on-year, respectively.
In general, the Canadian rental market has been expanding, with the share of households renting rather than owning their residence increasing from 30.6% in 2011 to 32.2% in 2016 and 33.4% in 2021, according to the Census data.
In their Spring 2024 housing market outlook, the CMHC anticipates that despite an increase in rental completions, growing demand for rental homes will not be met in the near future because the cost of homeownership will lead households to stay in rental housing. "Rents will rise and vacancy rates will fall," projected the CMHC.
"One-third of Canadians rent their homes. They are facing challenges like exorbitant monthly rents, low vacancy rates, and the erosion of protections against unfair rental practices, like renovictions or landlord failure to maintain safe and habitable units. <…> A lack of housing supply is putting pressure on housing affordability across the country," said the blueprint for a Renters' Bill of Rights released by the federal government in September 2024. The initiative was previously unveiled as part of Budget 2024, among other government measures addressing nationwide housing availability and affordability issues.
The long-term impact of the newly introduced federal measures remains to be seen, as their implementation and eventual success will depend heavily on the cooperation and participation of provincial and territorial governments. For example, the distribution of CAD 6 billion of federal funding through the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF) over the next 10 years was made conditional to regional governments taking steps to endorse the federal blueprint.
Mortgage Market:
Interest Rates on Downward Trajectory, New Loan Originations Pick Up
Encouraged by the significant ease of inflation in the first half of 2024, the Bank of Canada (BOC) started reducing its policy rate from the peak 5% level: by 25 b.p. in June, 25 b.p. in July, 25 b.p. in September, and most recently by 50 b.p. at the end of October, bringing the target for the overnight rate to 3.75%. "With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook," said the central bank in their announcement of the latest cut.
Data Source: BOC.
In a similar trajectory, interest rates charged on new residential mortgages by chartered banks have generally been climbing down from the peak levels of late 2023. However, they remain significantly elevated compared to the pre-2022 baseline. As of month-end August 2024, the BOC reported the weighted average interest rate at 5.42% for new insured mortgages (down from 5.84% a year ago, but above the 4.47% two years ago) and 5.39% for new uninsured mortgages (down from 5.83% a year ago, but above the 4.37% two years ago). This pattern was observed for most categories of new residential mortgages.
At the same time, the recent macroeconomic and central bank policy shifts are yet to be reflected in the weighted average interest rates charged on existing residential mortgages, which were reported by the BOC at 3.93% and 4.78% in August 2024 for insured and uninsured loans, respectively, both indicators above the comparable 2023 and 2022 levels.
"Renewal risk remains as 1.2 million mortgages will come up for renewal in 2025," says the fall 2024 industry report from the CMHC. "Most of these will experience higher interest rates than when their term began: 85% of those were contracted when the Bank of Canada rate was at or below 1%."
Interest rates charged on residential mortgages by chartered banks, month-end:
August 2024 | YoY | August 2023 | YoY | August 2022 | |
New mortgages, insured | 5.42% | ↓ | 5.84% | ↑ | 4.47% |
Variable rate | 6.18% | ↓ | 7.56% | ↑ | 4.19% |
Fixed-rate, up to 1 year | 8.85% | ↑ | 8.51% | ↑ | 6.78% |
Fixed-rate, from 1 up to 3 years | 5.88% | ↓ | 6.18% | ↑ | 4.47% |
Fixed-rate, from 3 up to 5 years | 4.84% | ↓ | 5.55% | ↑ | 4.36% |
Fixed-rate, 5 years and over | 4.73% | ↓ | 5.20% | ↑ | 4.34% |
New mortgages, uninsured | 5.39% | ↓ | 5.83% | ↑ | 4.37% |
Variable rate | 6.20% | ↓ | 7.38% | ↑ | 4.32% |
Fixed-rate, up to 1 year | 8.06% | ↑ | 7.94% | ↑ | 6.04% |
Fixed-rate, from 1 up to 3 years | 5.44% | ↓ | 5.77% | ↑ | 4.41% |
Fixed-rate, from 3 up to 5 years | 4.93% | ↓ | 5.58% | ↑ | 3.99% |
Fixed-rate, 5 years and over | 5.11% | ↓ | 5.45% | ↑ | 4.44% |
Outstanding mortgages, insured | 3.93% | ↑ | 3.67% | ↑ | 2.88% |
Outstanding mortgages, uninsured | 4.78% | ↑ | 4.59% | ↑ | 3.26% |
The hike in interest rates in the last two years reversed the previous upward trend in new loan originations, with the total value of new residential mortgages advanced by the charted banks dropping by 21.1% year-on-year in 2022 and 16.1% year-on-year in 2023. More recently, however, loan originations started picking up again, with the total value of new mortgages advanced by the banks in the first 8 months of 2024 reaching CAD 268.6 billion (USD 196.8 billion), 1.6% above the comparable period last year.
Based on the BOC reporting, uninsured mortgages accounted for nearly 82% of the funds advanced in January-August 2024, up from about 71% five years ago and 64% ten years ago. A recent analysis from Statistics Canada explains that this category of loans has been driving the overall expansion of the residential lending market in the country in recent years. Uninsured mortgages, predominant since 2017, have been growing faster than insured ones due to steady increases in house prices and specifics of the regulatory constraints that make homes valued over CAD 1 million (about USD 0.7 million) ineligible for insurance and require at least a 20% down payment. Consequently, uninsured mortgages are more prominent among single-detached homes, typically carrying higher values.
Data Source: BOC.
The total value of outstanding residential mortgage debt in Canada increased by 3.5% year-on-year in 2023, a more moderate growth compared to 7.5% in 2022 and 10.4% in 2021. The expansion was more pronounced in the non-bank sector of the market (5.1% year-on-year) compared to charted banks (3.0% year-on-year). The data published by Statistics Canada shows that as of August 2024, total residential mortgage liabilities of households stood at CAD 2.2 trillion (USD 1.6 trillion), with 23% of the stock maintained by non-bank lenders.
Sized against the Canadian economy, the residential mortgage market was equivalent to 74.6% of GDP in 2023, slightly up from 74.1% the previous year but below the 2020 peak of 79.2% of GDP in current prices.
The most recent Census data shows that 40% of all Canadian households (60% of owner households) pay a mortgage on their residence.
Data Sources: Statistics Canada, OECD.
Socio-Economic Context:
Strong Immigration Continues to Affect Economy, Moderate Growth Expected in Near-Term
The Canadian economy appears to have achieved a soft landing, avoiding a recession despite a challenging global backdrop in the last few years. Following the post-pandemic rebound of 5.3% in 2021, the country's real GDP growth has slowed to 3.8% in 2022 and further to 1.2% in 2023 but is expected to pick up by the end of this year and in the following periods. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the annual growth in 2024 to reach 1.3% and projects an acceleration to 2.4% in 2025.
"Real GDP growth is expected to pick up slightly this year, supported by the recently initiated normalization of monetary policy, some easing of fiscal policy, continued (even if slowing) immigration, and the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Inflation is set to continue declining," said the most recent IMF staff report.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Canada decelerated from a 6.8% peak in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and more recently has come down to target, reaching 1.6% on a year-on-year basis in September 2024, according to the release from Statistics Canada. Despite this being the smallest yearly increase since February 2021, overall price levels remain elevated, with CPI increasing by 12.7% between September 2021 and September 2024. "Canadians continue to feel the impact of higher price levels for day-to-day basics such as rent (+21.0%) and food purchased from stores (+20.7%), which increased during that same 3-year period," said Statistics Canada. The IMF projects annual inflation in Canada at 2.4% in 2024, with further stabilization around 2%.
Data Source: IMF.
According to the IMF analysis, immigration continues to affect nearly all aspects of the Canadian economy, supporting output growth and boosting labor supply but also likely moderating wage growth and adding to the demand for already scarce housing in the context of current supply constraints. "The sharp increase in household formation is one among many factors that have pushed housing affordability to its worst level since the early 1990s," said the IMF staff report.
Based on figures from Statistics Canada, in the last three years, the country experienced accelerated population growth, hiking from a long-time average of 1.1% annually to 1.8% in 2021-2022, 2.9% in 2022-2023, and 3.0% in 2023-2024. The spike in total population coincided with a sharp increase in international immigration that exceeded 493 thousand people in 2021-2022, 468 thousand in 2022-2023, and most recently 464 thousand in 2023-2024. At the same time, the net increase in non-permanent residents exceeded 712 thousand people in 2022-2023 and 775 thousand in 2023-2024. The latest release from Statistics Canada notes that in Q2 2024, population growth in the country was almost entirely due to international migration.
Overall, population growth in Canada remains high but shows signs of slowing as immigration moderates. "While the total number of non-permanent residents in the country continues to grow (3,002,090 on July 1, 2024), the rate has been slowing since October 2023," said the release from Statistics Canada.
Note: Based on Population estimates and Estimates of the components of demographic growth, annual, on July 1.
Data Source: Statistics Canada.
The IMF staff report highlights the impact of the immigration spike on Canada's labor market: "The increased supply of foreign workers filled a need in the labor market and supported near-term growth, while likely moderating wage increases. This integration has been supported by relatively robust employment growth, consistent with falling vacancy-unemployment ratios <…>. That said, the unemployment rate has risen <…>, suggesting some emerging softening in the labor market."
The nationwide unemployment rate was most recently reported by Statistics Canada at 6.5% in September 2024, ticking down for the first time since January (by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month) but remaining above the 5.6% and 5.1% levels previously reported in September 2023 and September 2022, respectively.
To contain and adjust migration inflows according to the needs of the country's economy, the Canadian government recently capped student and temporary worker visas and projected a decrease in overall permanent resident intake while allocating a greater share of admissions to high-skilled workers in critical sectors.
Data Source: Statistics Canada.
In general, under the baseline projections, the Canadian economy is expected to continue normalizing over the coming quarters, with headwinds coming from weaker global growth. In July 2024, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's 'AA+' standing with a stable outlook, citing its strong governance, high per-capita income, and a macroeconomic policy framework that has delivered steady growth and generally low inflation.
Sources:
- Government of Canada
- Solving the Housing Crisis: Canada's Housing Plan: https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/
- Blueprint for a Renters' Bill of Rights: https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/
- Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund: https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/
- Strengthening Temporary Residence Programs for Sustainable Volumes: https://www.canada.ca/
- Supplementary Information for the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan: https://www.canada.ca/
- Bank of Canada
- Exchange Rates: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/
- Interest Rates Charged for New and Existing Lending by Chartered Banks: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/
- Funds Advanced and Outstanding Balances for New and Existing Lending by Chartered Banks: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/
- Policy Interest Rate: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/
- Bank of Canada Reduces Policy Rate by 50 Basis Points: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/
- Statistics Canada
- 2021 Census of Population Key Indicators: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/
- Housing Indicators by Tenure Including Presence of Mortgage Payments and Subsidized Housing: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Monthly credit aggregates, August 2024: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Credit Liabilities of Households: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Chartered Banks, Mortgage Loans Report, End of Period, Bank of Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Key Trends in Mortgage and Non-Mortgage Loans: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Labour Force Survey, September 2024: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Consumer Price Index, September 2024: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Canada's Population Estimates: Age and Gender, July 1, 2024: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
- Monthly Housing Market Data: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
- Fall 2024 Housing Supply Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
- Residential Mortgage Industry Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
- 2024 Housing Market Outlook: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
- Housing starts for September 2024: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
- Housing Shortages in Canada. Updating How Much Housing We Need by 2030: https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/.
- Teranet and the National Bank of Canada
- Teranet-National House Price Index: https://housepriceindex.ca/
- The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)
- Monthly Housing Market Statistics: https://stats.crea.ca/
- Quarterly Housing Market Forecasts: https://www.crea.ca/
- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- Country Overview: Canada: https://www.imf.org/
- IMF Staff Country Report: https://www.imf.org/
- Fitch Ratings
- Fitch Affirms Canada at 'AA+'; Outlook Stable: https://www.fitchratings.com/
- Scotiabank
- Canadian Home Sales (September 2024): Housing News Flash: https://www.scotiabank.com/
- Deloitte
- Canada Economic Outlook, Fall 2024: https://www2.deloitte.com/
- PwC
- Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025: https://www.pwc.com/
- Rentals.ca
- 2024 Online Rental Search Demand & Trends: https://rentals.ca/
- October 2024 Rent Report: https://rentals.ca/
- Royal LePage
- Real Estate Rebound: Canada's Sluggish Housing Markets in Recovery Mode Following Third Straight Interest Rate Cut: https://www.royallepage.ca/