Hungary's Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

As the gap between accelerating demand, encouraged by macroeconomic recovery, and the pace of new supply entering the market continues to widen, putting upward pressure on prices, the Hungarian government introduces new measures to boost activity and maintain affordability.   

This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the Hungarian housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.  

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Supply Highlights
• Demand Highlights
• Mortgage Market
• Rental Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Residential property prices in Hungary are picking up pace, with the latest data from the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.47% as of Q3 2024 (10.61% inflation-adjusted). On a quarterly basis, prices rose by 2.17% (1.52% inflation-adjusted). The dynamic did not present equally across the country's regions: year-on-year growth in nominal prices was most pronounced in the cities of Northern Great Plain (15.6%), Southern Transdanubia (15.1%), and Budapest (14.0%), while the cities of Northern Hungary demonstrated the slowest growth of 7.0%.

A breakdown by property type, based on figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), shows that prices for existing dwellings rose by 15.18% year-on-year (11.29% inflation-adjusted), while new dwellings saw a 13.04% increase (9.22% inflation-adjusted).

Hungary house price annual change:

In terms of reported dwelling sales, monitored by the KSH, the highest mean price of second-hand units per sqm was expectedly recorded in Budapest, followed by the central region of Pest, Central Transdanubia, and Western Transdanubia.

Housing price dynamic in key submarkets:

Experts project that the recovery of the Hungarian housing market, which began in late-2024, will continue into 2025. "We believe that, in addition to a 15-20% increase in the number of transactions, a double-digit, i.e. average price increase of over 10% can be expected in 2025," summarized Dávid Valkó, chief analyst at OTP Ingatlanpont. He adds that the overall bargaining space is expected to narrow due to the increased demand. This growth will be driven by regulatory changes and financial incentives, including restrictions on short-term rentals, subsidies for young buyers, tax benefits, and shifting investment from government bonds to real estate.

Historic Perspective:

Housing Cycles Driven by Global Events and Domestic Reforms

After the change of political regime in 1989, Hungary faced a transformative period in the 1990s and early 2000s, including numerous fluctuations in the real estate sector and nationwide challenges such as large-scale housing privatization, establishment of the mortgage system, and government-backed credit programs. After over a decade of reforms, Hungary became an EU member in 2004 - without full monetary integration and adopting the euro as its primary currency. It kept the country exposed to the volatility of the national currency and high inflation and eventually exacerbated the effect of the global financial crisis.

The aftermath of the 2008 global crisis was particularly devastating for the mortgage market and the construction industry in Hungary, as many transactions and development projects at the time were financed by loans based on foreign currency or state support, both brought down by the weakening forint. The decline in real house prices continued for 24 consecutive quarters, resulting in about a 21% drop in nominal prices and about a 35% drop in inflation-adjusted prices between 2008 and 2013. In parallel, dwelling deliveries kept falling as well, reaching a historic low of just 7,293 new units in 2013.

The recovery began in 2014 when the new legislation introduced by the Hungarian government required financial institutions to convert outstanding foreign currency-based loans into forint. As a result, the share of foreign exchange loans in the total value of housing loan stock dropped from nearly 53% in 2013 to 0.2% in 2015 and is a marginal 0.04% as of 2023.

Another large-scale initiative launched in 2015 to help reverse the consequences of the crisis and revive the housing market was the Family Housing Allowance Program (CSOK), which offered families with children non-refundable state subsidies for buying or extending homes. The rural CSOK (aimed at halting depopulation in rural areas) offered subsidies to those who wanted to buy or renovate a dwelling on a homestead or in a small settlement.

The resurgence in demand supported by the government subsidies and improved affordability of loans led to a period of considerable expansion that earned Hungary the reputation of one of the EU's "hottest property markets". Construction activity rebounded, with the annual volume of new deliveries growing by an average of 30% between 2016 and 2020 to a post-crisis high of over 28,200 new units added in 2020. Prices surged by more than 240% (over 160% inflation-adjusted) between 2014 and early 2022, with double-digit increases every year, the only exception being 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down the growth to 8.93% (5.94% inflation-adjusted).

The global shortages and rise of construction material prices, as well as the shortage of skilled manpower in the market, led to a considerable decline in construction activity since the pandemic, further exacerbated by the inflation hike and overall economic recession in 2022-2023. In terms of prices, the market decelerated to the annual growth in nominal house prices of 12.3% and 10.0% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, which, due to high inflation, translated into an actual decrease of 8.5% in 2022 and a marginal rise of 2.1% in 2023.

The recent reversal of Hungary's housing market, which began in the second half of 2024, has been largely driven by broader economic recovery and a series of government measures including tightened regulations on short-term rentals, the extension of preferential VAT rates, the launch of a rural home renovation program, and new provisions allowing individuals to use voluntary pension fund savings or a portion of their SZÉP Card balance for housing-related expenses. On the supply side, the Housing Capital Program, launched at the end of 2024, was introduced to encourage new residential development, further supporting market growth.

20-year annual house price change (based on end-of-year MNB aggregated house price index):

20-year construction activity dynamic (authorized and completed housing units):

Data Source: KSH.

Demand Highlights:

Sales Transactions Rise, Anticipated to Strengthen Further

Activity in the Hungarian housing market is showing signs of improvement following a significant downturn in 2023. According to preliminary data from the KSH, slightly over 80,000 residential property transactions were recorded nationwide in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a modest year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The market for second-hand dwellings grew by 3.88% year-on-year, while new dwelling sales remained in decline, falling by 32.03% reflecting persistent new supply constraints.

*Preliminary data.
Data Source: KSH.

The Great Plain and North macro-region accounted for the largest share of residential sales (37%), while Budapest represented 26% of transactions and recorded the strongest year-on-year growth in sales among all regions (21.44%).

Housing transactions by private persons, by region:

Preliminary estimates from Duna House, a leading real estate services provider, indicate that a total of 124,508 transactions were completed throughout the country in 2024 - an 18.36% increase compared to 2023 data presented by the KSH. These figures align with industry projections, with RE/MAX Hungary previously estimating between 110,000 and 130,000 transactions for the year.

The MNB projects that housing demand in 2025 will be supported by a substantial inflow of household savings. "Looking ahead, demand may be boosted by the fact that the first three months of 2025 will see the interest period anniversary date of almost three-quarters of the nearly HUF 7,000 billion in PMÁP government securities held by the public, after which the attractiveness of real estate investment may increase as yields have decreased significantly. In addition, the opportunity to use voluntary pension fund savings for housing purposes tax-free next year also points to an increase in housing market demand," states the latest Housing Market Report from the central bank.

Market analysts from ingatlan.com estimate that between 140,000 and 145,000 home sales could take place in 2025, representing a 10% increase over 2024 and a 30-35% rise compared to 2023. This projection is supported by experts from Duna House, who expect the residential property market to strengthen by 10-20% in both transaction volumes and prices. "The outlook for 2025 is very encouraging, as macroeconomic factors, market conditions, and government measures affecting the housing market are developing favorably," summarized Balázs Czizy, owner-CEO of SISKIN Cégcsoport, in an interview with Pénzcentrum.

Supply Highlights:

Supply of New Housing Struggles to Keep Pace with Demand, Exerting Pressure on Prices

The supply side of the housing market in Hungary remains slow to respond to improved market conditions, with residential construction activity continuing to weaken. The KSH reported, 8,709 housing unit completions in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting a 19.42% year-on-year decline.

Geographic distribution of new development in Q1-Q3 2024 was traditionally dominated by the capital region of Budapest (about 32% of all new units), followed by the large regions of Transdanubia (28%), Pest (22%), and Great Plain and North (19%). In Budapest, the number of completed dwellings dropped by 14.6% year-on-year, with the largest share (43%) of units delivered in the 11th district.

Data Source: KSH.

Despite some signs of potential future improvement in supply, as indicated by an increase in the number of dwellings authorized for construction, the overall trend remains weak. The KSH data shows a 38.99% year-on-year rise in permits issued in Q3 2024. However, the cumulative data for the first three quarters still reflects a 2.30% year-on-year decline, with 14,551 authorized dwellings. The most significant drop was seen in Budapest, where the number of permits issued fell by 33.52% compared to the previous year.

Data Source: KSH.

Key dwellings supply indicators, by region:

The widening gap between the accelerating demand for housing and the sluggish pace of new supply continues to pressure home prices and further limit housing affordability. In response to the ongoing constraints, in December 2024 the Hungarian government announced the new Housing Capital Program. With a budget of HUF 200 billion, the program is designed to enhance economic growth and support the construction of new housing. The Hungarian Development Bank (MFB) will finance the initiative, acquiring up to 70% of the subscribed capital of real estate funds that are awarded through the program's tender process. Fund managers can receive state investments of up to HUF 30 billion. Conservative estimates suggest that the program could catalyze HUF 800-1,000 billion in housing market development over the next few years, significantly expanding the stock of high-quality residential real estate in the country, according to Bence Gerlaki, Deputy State Secretary for Economic Development Strategy.

Mortgage Market:

Lower Interest Rates Boost Disbursement

While the overall improvement of the macroeconomic landscape in the EU allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce its policy rates twice within the previous quarter, most recently announcing a 25 b.p. cut in December 2024, the MNB has been more hesitant to ease its monetary policy and has maintained the base rate at 6.50% since September 2024 in light of persistent inflationary pressure. "Inflation is expected to increase further temporarily until January 2025 and may be above the central bank tolerance band. <…> In the current macroeconomic environment, the Bank can make the most effective contribution <…> to the restart of economic growth by maintaining price stability and financial market stability," said the December 2024 MNB release on the decision to keep the rate unchanged.

Data Sources: ECB, MNB.

In parallel with the stabilization of monetary policy, the average interest rates on loans to households for house purchases in Hungary have been relatively stable in the last three quarters, according to the data from the ECB. The average interest rate on new housing loans fluctuated around 7% and was most recently reported at 6.82% in November 2024, down 1.94 p.p. since the same period the year before and 3.66 pp since two years prior. Despite having climbed down from peak levels observed in early 2023, interest rates on new loans of various initial rate fixation periods (IRF) remain notably elevated compared to the pre-2022 baseline.

Hungary's mortgage loan interest rates:

When it comes to outstanding loans, average interest rates also remain elevated, most recently reported at 5.80% in November 2024 against 5.69% in November 2023 and 4.95% in November 2022. The year-on-year drop was recorded only for the most market-sensitive category of loans with an original maturity of up to 1 year.

Average interest rates on loans to households for house purchase:

The hike in interest rates in 2022-2023, coupled with the decline of households' real income and confidence amid the economic recession, previously led to a notable drop in the volume and value of new mortgages issued. However, improved lending conditions, rising real wages, and deferred demand from the previous period led to a sharp rebound in new lending in the first half of 2024. The KSH reported a total of 38,215 new loans for HUF 644.5 billion (USD 1.8 billion) approved in H1 2024, which was not only 141.2% above the comparable period the year before, but exceeded the full-year volume for 2023 by 4.4%. The proportion of government-subsidized loans in new approvals increased from 20.7% in 2023 to 26.8% in H1 2024.

New disbursement during this period amounted to HUF 591.6 billion (USD 1.6 billion), up 101% from H1 2023. Home lending continued to be dominated by loans for the purchase of second-hand dwellings, which accounted for 68% of the number of loans and 77% of the total amount disbursed in H1 2024. Simultaneously, the purchase of new dwellings represented only 9% of the number and 11% of the total amount of credit extended.

Data Source: KSH.

Apart from the easing inflation, the pick-up in new lending is largely attributed to the government pressure on the banking system pushing lenders to do more to stimulate a recovery from a year-long recession or face the prospect of higher taxes. Credit market intervention by the government resulted in the introduction of a voluntary interest cap on new mortgages below the MNB base rate. Initially set at 8.5% in October 2023, the annual percentage rate (APR) ceiling was further lowered to 7.3% between January and June 2024. More recently, the Hungarian Banking Association announced a new preferential mortgage scheme with a 5% APR cap for first-time homebuyers under 35, conditional on purchases of homes no larger than 60 sqm at a price of no more than HUF 1.2 million (about USD 3,285) per sqm. The scheme will be available between April 1 and October 31, 2025.

The total value of outstanding housing loans in Hungary reached HUF 5.3 trillion (USD 14.7 billion) in H1 2024, a 5.7% increase since the end of 2023. The relative size of the market has been in decline in recent years, however, dropping from an estimated 8.3% of GDP in current prices in 2021 to 6.7% in 2023.

Data Source: KSH.

Rental Market:

Rent Growth Stabilizes, Restructuring of the Market Anticipated

Throughout 2024, rental inflation in Hungary appears to have stabilized around the levels previously observed in 2018-2019. According to experimental statistics reported by the KSH together with the property website ingatlan.com, the year-on-year growth of the nominal rent index in December 2024 was recorded at 9.2% nationwide and 9.6% in Budapest, down from the respective 12.7% and 12.0% in December 2023. In real terms, the rental growth reached 4.4% nationwide and 4.8% in Budapest, also down from the respective 6.8% and 6.1% a year prior.

On the regional level, Northern Great Plain, Northern Hungary, and Southern Transdanubia registered rental inflation above the national average and the capital of Budapest, while the slowest growth was reported in Central Transdanubia.

Data Sources: KSH, Inglatan.com.

Average asking rents in H2 2024, as reported by the KSH and ingatlan.com, ranged from HUF 257,000 (USD 695) in Budapest and HUF 260,000 (USD 703) in the surrounding region of Pest to HUF 136,000 (USD 368) in Northern Hungary.

According to the Q3 2024 report from the real estate agency RE/MAX Hungary, within the capital city, the highest monthly rents were observed in the 11th district at HUF 270,000 (USD 752), on average, while the outer districts 14, 15, 19, and 21 typically offered cheaper apartments at HUF 180,000-200,000 (USD 501-557) a month.

Average monthly rent in H2 2024 (based on home rental ads posted on ingatlan.com):

Gross rental yields for apartments in Hungary averaged 5.11%, according to research by the Global Property Guide conducted in January 2025, down from 5.75% previously reported in March 2024. Among the monitored regional submarkets, the highest average yield was observed in Budapest (5.39%), Nyíregyháza (5.30%), and Pécs (5.29%), while Debrecen and Kecskemét showed slightly lower potential performance at 5.01% and 4.57%, respectively.

In their latest report, RE/MAX Hungary estimated that just over a third of all housing purchases in Budapest in Q3 2024 were made for investment purposes, representing an annualized reduction of around 10% in this type of transaction. According to RE/MAX, investors typically chose properties of around 50 square meters at a price of about HUF 44 million (around USD 122,500).

Overall, the rental market in Hungary remains limited, as the country's homeownership ratio is one of the highest in the EU at over 90%, according to Eurostat data. At the same time, only 4.2% of the population are tenants renting at market rates. Based on the national census data, the share of renting households in Budapest is notably above the national average (around 9%) and was recorded at 17.5% during the 2022 Census. Both in the capital and nationwide, this indicator is up, however, from the respective 7.4% and 12.7% reported a decade ago during the 2011 Census.

Looking ahead, RE/MAX Hungary anticipates restructuring the rental market in Budapest, where the availability of affordable housing has become an issue in recent years, in part due to the growing segment of short-term rentals. The November 2024 housing market report from the MNB, citing AirDNA data, notes a 66% increase in the number of short-term rental properties in the capital between 2020 and 2024. In response, the government will introduce a two-year moratorium on issuing new Airbnb licenses in Budapest from 2025 and increase the annual flat rate tax on private accommodation under the New Economic Policy Action Plan. As a result of the referendum held in September 2024, the capital's District 6 will stop short-term rentals of apartments from the beginning of 2026. "The effect of the ban on short-term rentals in District VI may shift some of the rentals rented out this way to the long-term rental market, thereby increasing the supply of sublets and reducing the local dynamics of sublet prices. These government tightening measures could reduce investment demand in the capital," said the MNB.

Socio-Economic Context:

Gradual Recovery Supported by Domestic Consumption

After a 0.9 contraction in 2023 in the context of high inflation and interest rates and weaker external demand, the Hungarian economy shifted to a gradual recovery, with the real GDP growth estimated at 1.5% in 2024 on the back of increased domestic consumption. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections currently see growth accelerating to 2.9% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. The latest forecast from the European Commission also expects moderate but accelerating growth: 1.8% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Consumption is set to be the main growth driver in the upcoming periods, with exports and investment expanding more gradually due to moderate growth at trade partners.

Based on the IMF data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Hungary eased significantly from 17.1% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024, as the impact of earlier energy and food price increases and supply chain bottlenecks eased. At the same time, the pricing of certain services remained affected by the high inflation in previous years, which, together with strong wage growth, increasing consumer demand, and currency depreciation, has been fueling domestic price pressures in 2024. Most recent reporting from the KSH showed inflation accelerating in the last quarter of the year from 3.0% in September to 4.6% in December 2024. In the upcoming periods, in line with lower commodity prices and wage growth, the European Commission expects the indicator to decrease to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The IMF projection sees the indicator at 3.5% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.

Data Source: IMF.

While remaining tight by historical standards, the Hungarian labor market started to ease in recent years, with the unemployment rate for the population aged 15-74 increasing from 3.7% in Q1 2022 to 4.4% in Q4 2024, according to the KSH reporting. The average net monthly earnings in the country reached HUF 462,200 (USD 1,197) in November 2024, an 11.9% year-on-year increase.

According to the European Commission assessment, further economic recovery is expected to increase labor demand, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon. While the labor market is set to tighten gradually, nominal wage growth in 2025 and 2026 is projected to ease from a high level as the impact of past minimum wage increases fades. 

Data Source: KSH.

At the end of December 2024, Fitch Ratings revised Hungary's outlook from negative to stable while affirming its 'BBB' standing. The revision cited the easing of policy uncertainty in the country, as well as projected gradual fall in debt and moderating inflation.

Overall, economically, the country remains highly integrated with its EU and non-EU partners, such as Germany, Austria, Italy, Poland, and others, making it prone to spillovers resulting from developments in their respective economies. The 2024 European Commission's in-depth review noted that Hungary's "economic policies are geared toward stimulating the recovery from the 2023 recession, but risks to government finances and the need to address them could create headwinds to growth in the medium term", while "geopolitical and trade tensions appear to pose a non-negligible risk to its economy."

Sources:

1. Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)
   1. Census Database: https://nepszamlalas2022.ksh.hu/
   2. Housing: https://www.ksh.hu/
   3. HCSO-ingatlan.com-rent index, December 2024: https://www.ksh.hu/
   4. Decline in Construction Permits in the Capital Mitigated by Rural Growth: https://www.ksh.hu/
   5. Employment and Unemployment First Releases, December 2024: https://www.ksh.hu/
   6. Consumer Prices First Releases, December 2024: https://www.ksh.hu/
2. Hungarian National Bank (MNB)
   1. MNB Statistics: https://statisztika.mnb.hu/
   2. MNB House Price Index: https://statisztika.mnb.hu/
   3. Housing Market Report November 2024: https://www.mnb.hu/
   4. Exchange Rates: https://www.mnb.hu/
   5. Base Rate History: https://www.mnb.hu/
   6. Press Release on the Monetary Council Meeting of 17 December 2024: https://www.mnb.hu/
3. European Commission
   1. In-Depth Review 2024: Hungary: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
   2. Economic Forecast for Hungary: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
   3. Distribution of Population by Tenure Status, Type of Household, and Income Group: https://ec.europa.eu/
4. European Central Bank (ECB)
   1. ECB Data Portal: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/
5. Hungarian Banking Association
   1. The Hungarian Banking Association is a Partner in Helping Young People Find Housing (HU): https://www.bankszovetseg.hu/
6. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: Hungary: https://www.imf.org/
   2. Article IV Staff Report: https://www.imf.org/
7. Fitch Ratings
   1. Fitch Revises Hungary's Outlook to Stable; Affirms at 'BBB': https://www.fitchratings.com/
8. RE/MAX Hungary
   1. Housing Market Report - 2024 Q3: https://www.remax.hu/
9. Duna House
   1. Duna House Barometer - Issue 162, Q4 2024 and December 2024: https://newdhapi03.dh.hu/
10. Bloomberg
    1. Hungary Wants Banks to 'Voluntarily' Agree to 5% Mortgage Cap: https://www.bloomberg.com/
    2. Hungary's Banks Cap Mortgage Costs After Orban Pressure: https://www.bloomberg.com/
    3. EU's Hottest Property Market Shows Signs It's Past Peak: https://www.bloomberg.com/
    4. EU's Hottest Property Market Cools as 18% Key Rate Hits Lending: https://www.bloomberg.com/
11. Index
    1. The Government Announced A 200 Billion Forint Investment, And The Housing Development Program Is Launched (HU): https://index.hu/
    2. The Government Made A Last-Minute Decision To Pump A Huge Amount Of Money Into The Housing Market (HU): https://index.hu/
12. Portfolio.hu
    1. 2025 Will Start With A Series Of New Features In The Housing (HU): https://www.portfolio.hu/
13. Piac&Profit
    1. Buyers Can Already Know Something: The Housing Market Has Taken Off Strongly (HU): https://piacesprofit.hu/
14. Pénzcentrum
    1. The Housing Boom Could Come To Hungary As Early As Next Year (HU): https://www.penzcentrum.hu/
15. ScienceDirect
    1. Dwellings and Housing Market in Hungary, 1990-2015: https://www.sciencedirect.com/