Taiwan's housing market is gaining momentum again, amidst recovering property demand and improving residential construction activity.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

In Q3 2024, Taiwan's Lutheran home price index registered a solid growth of 12.47% from a year earlier, an acceleration from a modest year-on-year increase of 3.62% in Q3 2023, based on figures released by Sinyi Real Estate Planning and Research. When adjusted for inflation, nationwide house prices were up by 10.46% in Q3 2024.

Quarter-on-quarter, Taiwan's house prices rose by 2.4% (1.69% inflation-adjusted) during the latest quarter.

In Taipei, the capital, house prices rose strongly by 10.46% (8.49% inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024 from a year earlier, far higher as compared to the prior year's minuscule growth of just 0.25%. Quarterly, house prices in Taipei increased by 3.09% (2.37% inflation-adjusted) during the latest quarter.

For the country's other major cities:

• Xinbei house prices rose by 12.35% (10.34% inflation-adjusted) y-o-y in Q3 2024, up from the prior year's 4.69% increase. Quarter-on-quarter, prices increased by 3.93% (3.21% inflation-adjusted).
• Taoyuan house prices skyrocketed by 18.68% (16.56% inflation-adjusted), almost tripling the y-o-y growth of 6.54% recorded in Q3 2023. Quarterly, prices were up by an average of 5.31% (4.59% inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024.
• Hsinchu house prices increased by 17.72% (15.62% inflation-adjusted) during the year to Q3 2024. It is a sharp acceleration from a meager y-o-y growth of 0.77% in the previous year. During the latest quarter, prices were up by 1.37% (0.67% inflation-adjusted) q-o-q.
• Taichung house prices also increased by 12.83% (10.81% inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024 from a year earlier, following a y-o-y rise of 4.1% in Q3 2023. Quarterly, house prices rose by 2.67% (1.96% inflation-adjusted).
• Kaohsiung house prices rose strongly by 13.56% (11.53% inflation-adjusted) y-o-y in Q3 2024, up from the previous year's 8.57% growth. Quarter-on-quarter, prices were up by 3.12% (2.4% inflation-adjusted).

Taiwan's house price annual change

Demand is increasing strongly again. In the first half of 2024, property transactions in Taiwan's six largest cities - Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung - hit 136,499 units, up by a huge 27.6% from a year earlier. During the whole year of 2023, housing sales in the six cities fell by 3% in 2023 from a year earlier to 236,363 units.

This year, total housing sales are expected to surpass 300,000 units.

Amidst increasing demand, the residential construction sector is also improving. In the first eight months of 2024, the total number of residential construction licenses increased by 4.3% to 102,067 as compared to a year ago, according to figures from the Ministry of Interior. It is a sharp improvement from the huge decline of 19.1% seen in the full year of 2023.

Overall, Taiwan's economic conditions continue to improve. In Q2 2024, the Taiwanese economy grew by 5.06% compared to a year earlier, following year-on-year expansions of 6.63% in Q1 2024 and 4.83% in Q4 2023, mainly driven by increased private consumption, government spending, as well as exports.

Taiwan's economy is projected to grow by 3.9% this year, a sharp improvement from the meager growth of 1.28% in 2023, according to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). The projection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a bit more conservative, expecting a real GDP growth rate for Taiwan of 3.7% for the whole year of 2024.

In the January 2024 presidential elections, Taiwanese voters elected yet another pro-sovereignty candidate, William Lai, to become the new president of Taiwan, solidifying a direction that is increasingly divergent from Mainland China. Lai officially assumed office in May 2024. This marked the third presidential election win for the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Historic Perspective:

Housing affordability is a major problem

Taipei is one of the world's most expensive cities. Taipei's house price-to-income ratio has risen sharply from just 6.4 in 2004 to about 15.71 in 2023, according to the country's Ministry of Interior (MOI) - higher than London (8.6x), New York (5.9x), Toronto (9.9x), Sydney (11.8x) or Vancouver (13x). However, Hong Kong is still the world's least affordable market, with a score of 16.7, according to Demographia's 2024 International Housing Affordability report.

Nationwide, the house price-to-income ratio stood at 9.6%, up from 8.58 before the Covid-19 pandemic, based on MOI figures.

Recently, Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je stressed the urgent need to resolve the country's affordable housing crisis before it provokes social unrest, similar to the case of Hong Kong.

"[In Hong Kong], high rent and housing prices are causing class struggle, a widening wealth disparity, and accumulating resentment among young people," said Ko. "Unless the problem is resolved, Hong Kong's problem today could become Taiwan's tomorrow."

To address the problem, Ko announced that the city plans to build 50,000 public housing units in the next seven years.

Over the past eight years, about 200,000 social housing units have been added in Taiwan - 120,000 built by the government and 80,000 from government-sponsored leases.

In early December 2023, Taiwan's Cabinet approved a new plan to raise the supply of social housing to 1 million units by 2032.

Housing demand was boosted after 2009 when the government cut inheritance tax rates from 50% to 10%, and interest rates were cut. Unmonitored speculation, low housing supply, and a long tradition of homeownership pushed house prices in Taiwan, particularly in the capital city, and especially on high-end properties. A three-bedroom apartment, which cost just TWD6 million (US$187,808) to TWD7 million (US$219,109) in 1995, was sold for over TWD20 million (US$626,027) last year.

From 2000 to Q3 2024:

• In Taipei City, the house price index rose by 283% (186% inflation-adjusted)
• In Xinbei, the house price index rose by 362% (245% inflation-adjusted)
• In Taoyuan, the house price index rose by a whopping 452% (312% inflation-adjusted)
• In Hsinchu, the house price index was up by 424% (292% inflation-adjusted)
• In Taichung, the house price index soared by 453% (313% inflation-adjusted)
• In Kaohsiung, the house price index increased by 351% (237% inflation-adjusted)

"Unfortunately, buying a home remains unaffordable for most young Taiwanese, a situation we don't expect to change in the medium term," said Emily Dabbs of Moody's Analytics. An average household in Taipei needs to pay two-thirds of its income for a mortgage loan, far above the affordable limit of 30%.

15 years of dramatic measures to curb speculation

Worries about mainland speculators peaked in early 2008 when residential property prices rose by more than 10% y-o-y during the first quarter. Upward pressure further increased when Chinese banks based in Taiwan were able to offer mortgages after the signing of an MOU in November 2009.

From October 2009 onwards, the central bank actively urged banks to closely monitor mortgage lending risks. A big step was to assign a 100% risk weighting to non-owner occupied residential mortgages. Risk weightings for other home mortgage portfolios range from 50% to 80%, compared with 10%-20% for banks in other developed markets in Asia-Pacific that practice the Internal Ratings-Based Approach to credit risk.

In 2011 a luxury tax was introduced. Second homes not occupied by the owner and sold within one year of purchase were taxed at 15%, and those sold within two years of purchase were taxed at 10%.

From March 2014 much tougher measures were introduced which caused house prices in Taiwan to drop 7.9% (3.7% inflation-adjusted) from Q2 2014 to Q1 2016. House prices increased by a minimal 1.8% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

These were the measures:

In March 2014, property taxes on non-owner-occupied residential properties were raised to between 1.5% and 3.6%, from 1.2% to 2%.

Inspections of pre-sale house transactions were tightened. State-owned banks lowered loan-to-value ratios for first-time buyers from 80% to 70%, and from 60% to 50% for people owning more than one property.

On January 1, 2016, a new property gains tax of as much as 45% took effect. Property sellers are now required to pay between 15% and 45% of gains based on market prices, instead of the previously used government-assessed values. Qualified property sellers with gains of less than TWD4 million (US$ 125,200) are exempt from the tax.

However, as the effect of these market-cooling measures wanes, house price growth has accelerated again in recent years. House prices have risen by 7.6% in 2022, following y-o-y increases of 14.6% in 2021, 6.5% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2019.

Because of this, the government has introduced measures that would tax houses and presale projects resold within five years of purchase. Accordingly, under the Amendments to the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 which came into force on July 1, 2021, a tax of 45% will be paid on gains from the sale of property within two years of purchase and 35% for gains made between two to five years. Foreign individuals and businesses are also required to pay the same amount of tax. According to the Ministry of Finance, the amended holding periods apply to houses and land acquired after January 1, 2016, and sold after July 1, 2021.

Supply Highlights:

Residential construction activity improving

The residential construction sector is now showing signs of improvement. In the first eight months of 2024, the total number of residential construction licenses increased by 4.3% to 102,067 as compared to a year ago, according to figures from the Ministry of Interior. It is a sharp improvement from the huge decline of 19.1% seen in the full year of 2023.

Though there are wide variations in Taiwan's major cities:

• In Taipei City, residential construction licenses surged by 22.6% y-o-y to 9,337 in the first eight months of 2024.
• In New Taipei City, licenses fell sharply by 19.6% y-o-y to 15,578 in Jan-Aug 2024.
• In Taoyuan, licenses increased by 19% to 15,354 in Jan-Aug 2024 from a year earlier.
• In Taichung, residential construction licenses rose by 22.4% y-o-y to 21,159 over the same period.
• In Tainan, licenses dropped by 6.4% y-o-y to 6,460 in the first eight months of 2024.
• In Kaohsiung, licenses soared by 36.7% to 12,890 in the first eight months of 2024 from a year earlier.

Before falling last year, construction activity has been continuously rising in the past several years. Residential construction licenses increased by an annual average of 23% from 2017 to 2019, before slowing to an annual growth of less than 7% from 2020 to 2022.

Rental Market:

Taiwan's vanishingly low rental yields

Taipei now vies with Monaco for the lowest yields in the world. Taipei is not a happy place to be a landlord. The owner of an apartment in Taipei will be lucky to realize more than 3% yields, except for the very smallest apartments.

In Q3 2024, the average rental yields in Taiwan stood at 2.15%, slightly down from 2.17% in Q1 2024, based on the recent research conducted by the Global Property Guide.

In major cities:

• In Taipei City, gross rental yields for apartments ranged from 1.41% to 2.05% in Q3 2024, with a city average of 1.81%. Smaller apartments have the lowest rental returns.
• In New Taipei City, apartments generate rental returns between 1.69% and 1.91%, with a city average of 1.83%.
• In Taoyuan City, rental yields ranged from 1.65% to 2.66% in Q3 2024, with a city average of 2.25%.
• In Kaohsiung City, apartments generate rental yields between 1.92% and 3.14%, with a city average of 2.57%.
• In Tainan City, gross rental yields for apartments ranged from 1.59% to 2.83%, with a city average of 2.3%.

Such low yields are often a sign of an overvalued market. Given that the Global Property Guide's figures are for gross rental yields, i.e., do not make any allowance for vacant periods, legal costs, administration costs, cleaning and repairs, rental taxes, property taxes, and other taxes, it is safe to say that landlords in Taiwan earn nothing on their apartments.

Paradoxically Taiwan has one of the highest homeownership rates in the world at 87%, while social housing accounts for about 5% of households. And the trend toward home ownership is increasing. Because of this, Taiwan's rental market is quite small, with 8% of the total households being around nine million.

Mortgage Market:

New measures introduced to suppress housing speculators and curb banks' property exposure

Effective June 16, 2023, the central bank announced yet new credit controls on second-home loans by lowering the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for second-home mortgages from 75% to 70% in Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung, as well as in Hsinchu city and county.

Taiwan's mortgage loan interest rates:

After drawing criticism from housing experts and property developers, who commented that the new measures would harm people who need to relocate, the central bank announced in July 2023 that the rule will not apply to those who sell their first home within a year.

Then in September 2024, the central bank announced a seventh wave of selective credit controls with four main measures, in an effort to further crackdown housing speculators:

• Buyers with existing properties cannot have a grace period for their first home loans, which means that they will have to simultaneously pay the interest and principal.
• The LTV ratio for second-home mortgages has been reduced from 60% to 50% across the country.
• The LTV ratio for corporations and individuals buying luxury homes and third properties has been reduced from 40% to 30%.
• The LTV ratio for developers who use unsold homes as collateral has been reduced from 40% to 30%.

Prior to this, Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) raised the regulatory risk weights (RW) in February 2022, and applied for new domestic property loans, in an effort to reduce banks' property exposure. More specifically:

• The RW for new housing loans to retail buyers with more than two properties, as well as to corporate buyers, was raised to 50% - 100%, from 20% - 30%, to control speculative property investment.
• The RW for new loans to finance land acquisition and housing inventories was also increased to 150% - 200%, from 75% - 150%.

"The measures should help to moderate the pace of banks' property lending and contain concentration risks. However, we do not believe they will result in a significant reduction in the sector's share of total lending," said Fitch Ratings. "The latest development follows other policy moves that already helped to moderate the growth in property-related loans in 2021, including stricter loan-to-value requirements."

Key rate unchanged, mortgage interest rates still rising

In its September 2024 meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) kept the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations at their current levels of 2%, 2.375%, and 4.25%, respectively. The recent decision aims to support the steady growth of the economy, amidst easing domestic inflation.

The central bank raised its key interest rates six times since December 2020 to curb inflationary pressures. It has also increased the reserve requirements ratio several times to strengthen the effectiveness of its selective credit control measures.

"The Bank has made six amendments to its selective credit control measures since December 2020, which have helped banks mitigate risks associated with real estate lending. The nonperforming loan ratio of real estate loans has since remained low, indicating good credit quality," said the central bank.

"Nevertheless, housing market transactions began to climb back up and housing prices saw steeper rises in the second half of last year, leading the annual growth rate of housing loans to trend upwards continuously to 11.0% at the end of August this year, the highest since May 2006. Furthermore, the annual growth rate of construction loans also picked up, reaching 5.0% at the end of August. As a result, the ratio of real estate lending to total lending of all banks (a measure of the concentration of real estate lending) stayed elevated at a level of 37.5% at the end of August this year, close to its historical record of 37.9%," added the central bank.

In September 2024, the average interest rate for housing loans stood at 2.19%, up slightly from 2.076% a year earlier and 1.731% two years ago. Despite the increase, it remains very low by international standards.

New housing loans surging

Taiwan's residential mortgage market continues to grow strongly. In September 2024, new housing loans soared by 56.4% from a year earlier, to TWD 111.05 billion (US$3.48 billion), according to the figures released by the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). In the first nine months of this year, the total amount of new housing loans climbed to TWD 880.78 billion (US$27.57 billion), more than 76% higher as compared to the same period last year. This is in contrast to the 6.7% decline seen in the first nine months of 2023.

As a result, the total value of outstanding housing loans in Taiwan continued to increase by 11.3% y-o-y to TWD 10.86 trillion (US$339.93 billion) in September 2024, according to the central bank. It was the highest growth recorded since December 2005. Likewise, outstanding loans for construction rose by 5.7% y-o-y to TWD 3.49 trillion (US$109.29 billion) over the same period.

Total outstanding housing loans rose by an average of 5.4% annually from 2009 to 2023.

As a proportion of GDP, the country's residential mortgage market grew to about 42.6% in 2023, up from 41.4% in the prior year, 39.2% in 2019, and less than 35% in 2015.

The Global Property Guide projects that the residential mortgage market will expand further to an equivalent of about 44% of GDP this year.

Most residential mortgages in Taiwan are variable rates, with an average maturity of 25 years.

Socio-Economic Context:

Economic conditions improving, exports increasing

Taiwan's economy grew by 5.06% in Q2 2024 from a year earlier, following year-on-year expansions of 6.63% in Q1 2024 and 4.83% in Q4 2023, mainly driven by increased private consumption, and government spending, as well as exports.

Taiwan's economy is projected to grow by 3.9% this year, a sharp improvement from the meager growth of 1.28% in 2023, according to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). The projection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a bit more conservative, expecting a real GDP growth rate for Taiwan of 3.7% for the whole year of 2024.

Taiwan, which is heavily dependent on exports, was seriously affected by the US economic recession in 2008. The economy bounced back in 2010 with spectacular growth of 10.6%. From 2011 to 2019 the Taiwanese economy has grown by an annual average of 2.9%. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy managed to post a modest growth of 3.4% in 2020.

After registering a strong expansion of 6.6% in 2021, the Taiwanese economy recorded a more moderate growth of 2.6% in 2022.

Exports, which account for about 60% of the country's GDP, are now increasing again. In September 2024, exports totaled US$40.57 billion, the highest level recorded for that month and up by 4.5% from the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Finance. It was the eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth, mainly driven by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, high-performance computing tools, and the release of new mobile devices.

In the first nine months of 2024, Taiwan's total exports reached US$349.13 billion, up by 10.2% from the previous year. Likewise, imports also increased by 10.1% y-o-y to US$289.54 billion over the same period. As such, the trade surplus rose by 10.2% y-o-y to a record US$59.59 billion in the first nine months of the year.

China and Hong Kong remained Taiwan's largest trading partners, after purchasing US$109.01 billion worth of merchandise from January to September 2024, down by 2.7% from a year earlier. Mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for about 31.2% of Taiwan's exports.

Overall inflation slowed to 1.82% in September 2024, down from 2.36% in the previous month and 2.93% in the same period last year, based on figures from DGBAS. The nationwide inflation rate averaged less than 1% in 2010-2020, before increasing to 2% in 2021, 2.95% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.

In September 2024, Taiwan's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 3.38%, a bit higher than the previous month's 3.36% but lower than last year's 3.44%, as labor market conditions remain robust.

Another pro-sovereignty president elected

In the January 2024 presidential elections, Taiwanese voters elected yet another pro-sovereignty candidate, William Lai, to become the new president of Taiwan, solidifying a direction that is increasingly divergent from Mainland China. Lai officially assumed office in May 2024. This marked the third presidential election win for the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

In October 2024, Taiwan unveiled its intention to join the IMF in a bid to enhance the country's financial resilience against China. Accordingly, Taiwan is also seeking to participate in the WHO's annual World Health Assembly and join Interpol to boost its global status.

The conflict between Mainland China and Taiwan started to escalate in 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen of DPP assumed office and became Taiwan's first female president. One of Tsai's key economic policies is to reduce Taiwan's reliance on Mainland China, which accounts for an average of around 40% of the island's exports every year. Tsai plans to form closer ties with ASEAN.

Mainland China is highly suspicious of Tsai, warning her against any attempt at a formal breakaway. Early in 2016, the Chinese government announced that it had cut off official contact with Taipei. In December 2016, Taiwan sent a blunt message to China by preparing its military forces and stepping up its training exercises to fend off Beijing's threats.

Taiwan's relations with China reached a new low after China decided to boycott the Olympic-style sporting event, the 2017 Summer Universiade, which was held in Taipei in August 2017.

In June 2018, the construction of a US$250 million complex that will house the new American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), which serves as the United States' de facto embassy in Taipei, escalated further the tensions between Taiwan and Mainland China.

In July 2019, the US announced its intent to sell 108 M1A2T Abram tanks and Stinger missiles worth US$2.2 billion to Taiwan, despite China's demand to cancel the said sale. The weapons deal is a signal to China of US commitment to Taiwan. As an expression of outrage, China said that it would impose sanctions on US firms involved in the weapons sale, as it harmed China's sovereignty and national security.

In September 2019, both Solomon Islands and Kiribati severed ties with Taiwan and officially recognized Beijing, amidst the latter's assurance of providing development assistance to these small countries.

In the January 2020 presidential elections, Tsai won her second term in office, after defeating her major challenger Han Kuo-yu of the mainland-friendly Kuomintang by close to 3 million votes.

Then in December 2021, Nicaragua also switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Other diplomatic allies that have cut ties with Taiwan since Tsai came to office included Burkina Faso, Dominican Republic, Sao Tome and Principe, and Panama.

In March 2023, Honduras severed ties with Taiwan and established relations with China. Then in January 2024, Nauru became the latest country to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, just days after the presidential elections.

"China stealing our allies, pressuring our international space won't shrink the distance across the strait and won't allow for peaceful, friendly development of cross-strait relations," said Taiwan's former foreign minister Joseph Wu.

Taiwan now has only 12 diplomatic allies left.

China's campaign to isolate Taiwan extends to minute details. In the past four years, Beijing has been sending warnings to airlines to list "Taiwan, China", rather than just "Taiwan", on their websites. In addition, China fined a Japanese clothing company for listing Taiwan as the "country of origin" on packaging.

In recent years, China has also ramped up military pressure on Taiwan through repeated incursions into the latter's airspace.

In a move to curb Taiwan's economic reliance on mainland China and forge a free trade agreement with the US, Tsai has recently lifted a long-standing import ban against US pork, despite significant public pushback. Then in September 2021, Tsai signified its intention to join the 11-country trade pact Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to strengthen Taiwan's economic ties with other nations.

Tsai and the DPP have prioritized increasing defense spending, with a record budget of over US$19 billion for 2023, equivalent to 2.5% of Taiwan's GDP. Despite this, China's defense spending remains about twelve times that of Taiwan's.

Prior to this, relations between mainland China and Taiwan thawed when President Ma of the Kuomintang Party (KMT) assumed office in May 2008. He vowed greater cooperation with Mainland China and denounced independence for Taiwan, a sharp contrast to his nationalist but corrupt predecessor, Chen Shui-bian. In November 2009, several memorandums of agreement between Taiwan and China on financial cooperation were signed. These gestures reassured investors and home buyers alike. In June 2010, an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was signed by Taiwan and China. President Ma also accepted the 1992 consensus, which played a crucial role in lowering tensions with China and boosting cross-strait economic ties.

Ironically, most Taiwanese people favor neither formal independence nor eventual unification with China. Based on a June 2024 survey conducted by the Election Study Center of the National Chengchi University, only 3.8% of the population supported independence as soon as possible, while 1.1% were in favor of unification with mainland China. The rest of the respondents want to maintain the status quo indefinitely with no move towards either independence or unification.

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