Indonesia's residential property prices remain more or less steady, amidst slowing demand as reflected by falling sales transactions.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

The composite-16 property price index rose by only 1.46% during the year to Q3 2024, following y-o-y growth of 1.76% in Q2 2024, 1.89% in Q1 2024, 1.74% in Q4 2023 and 1.96% in Q3 2023, according to the country's central bank, Bank Indonesia. Yet property prices actually declined slightly by 0.47% y-o-y in Q3 2024 when adjusted for inflation.

During the latest quarter, residential property prices rose by a minuscule 0.3% q-o-q (0.61% inflation-adjusted) in Q3 2024.

"Subdued RPPI performance was caused by broad-based moderation across all house types. Large houses were most severely affected, with growth decelerating from 1.47% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2024 to 1.04% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, small and medium residences also experienced moderation from 2.09% (yoy) to 1.97% (yoy) and from 1.45% (yoy) to 1.33% (yoy), respectively," said Bank Indonesia.

Looking at the longer term, the property market has hardly moved, with prices up by just 15.82% from 2016 to 2023. In real terms, prices fell by a cumulative 5.85% over the same period.

Indonesia's house price annual change

When inflation is considered, only four of the eighteen major Indonesian cities recorded minimal house price increases in Q3 2024 as compared to the same period in the prior year.

Demand is slowing again. In Q3 2024, residential property sales fell by 7.14% from a year earlier, in contrast to a y-o-y growth of 7.3% in the previous quarter, based on figures from Bank Indonesia. Quarterly, sales also experienced a contraction of 7.62% in Q3 2024, after falling by 12.8% in the prior quarter.

As of Q3 2024, the total supply of apartments in Jakarta stood at 226,815 units. An additional 4,756 units were estimated to have entered the market in the last quarter of 2024. With this, the total completions last year in the capital city was 5,594 units.

The wider economy remains strong. Indonesia's economy was estimated to have expanded by a robust 5% during 2024, following annual growth of 5% in 2023, 5.3% in 2022, 3.7% in 2021, and a pandemic-induced contraction of 2.1% in 2020.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Indonesian economy to grow by another 5.1% annually in the next two years, in line with the World Bank's projections.

Historic Perspective:

Jakarta's apartment prices remain steady

In Jakarta, prices of apartments rose by a minuscule 0.4% y-o-y to IDR 35.7 million (US$2,188) per sq. m. in Q3 2024, according to Colliers International. Quarter-on-quarter, apartment prices were up slightly by 0.1%.

Over the same period:

• In Jakarta CBD, the average price of strata title apartments rose slightly by 0.09% y-o-y to IDR 52.89 million (US$3,242) per sq. m. in Q3 2024.
• In South Jakarta, the average price of strata title apartments rose by a meager 0.63% y-o-y to IDR 40.49 million (US$2,481) per sq. m. in Q3 2024.
• In the capital's non-prime areas, the average price of strata title apartments was up by 0.41% y-o-y to IDR 27.17 million (US$1,665) per sq. m. over the same period.

Demand Highlights:

Demand slowing again, as impact of stimulus measures wane

Demand is falling again. In Q3 2024, residential property sales fell by 7.14% from a year earlier, in contrast to a y-o-y growth of 7.3% in the previous quarter, based on figures from Bank Indonesia. Quarterly, sales also experienced a contraction of 7.62% in Q3 2024, after falling by 12.8% in the prior quarter.

"Respondents confirmed broad-based contractions in the third quarter of 2024 across all house types. Small and medium residences recorded shallower 9.80% (qtq) and 5.25% (qtq) contractions, respectively. Meanwhile, sales of large residential properties contracted 4.47% (qtq) in the reporting period, after posting 5.08% (qtq) growth in the second quarter of 2024," said Bank Indonesia.

Accordingly, the key challenges in the residential property market included rising building material costs, licensing issues, high down payment requirements for housing loans, and high taxes.

Previously, demand was buoyed by several market stimulus measures introduced by the government. In 2023, the Ministry of Finance issued regulation PMK 120/2023, extending the value-added tax (VAT) incentive program. The VAT subsidy, which applies to all residential properties priced up to IDR 5 billion (US$306,426), amounts to 11% until June 2024 and 5.5% from June to December 2024. Currently, there are 10,581 units eligible for the incentive.

In addition, the extension of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio relaxation policy, which expired last year, also encouraged increased activity in the housing market.

Moreover, the Omnibus Law introduced two initiatives to attract foreign investors, including the simplification of qualification for property purchases, and the upgrade of the type of titles that foreigners can hold - from the previously limited Hak Pakai (Right to Use) to Hak Guna Bangunan (Right to Build).

The average take-up rate for apartments in Jakarta stood at 87.8% in Q3 2024, slightly down from 87.9% in the previous quarter but up from 87.6% in the same period last year, according to Colliers International.

Recovering tourism to boost the property market

Tourism continues to recover, with the total number of international visitor arrivals increasing strongly by 20.17% y-o-y to 12,658,048 people in the first eleven months of 2024, based on figures from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). It is now the highest level seen since 2019.

In November 2024 alone, Indonesia recorded 1,092,067 foreign tourist arrivals, reflecting a significant 17.27% increase compared to the same month the previous year. The majority of tourist arrivals in Indonesia in November 2024 were from Malaysia, followed by visitors from Australia and Singapore.

Yet the latest figures remain below the record-high of 16.1 million arrivals registered in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic. Arrivals plunged to just 4 million in 2020 and 1.56 million in 2021, mainly due to pandemic-related travel restrictions.

Bali, one of the world's top tourist destinations, saw its tourist arrivals surge to over 6.3 million people in 2024, up by about 21% from 5.23 million international tourists in the prior year. Arrivals in Bali were dominated by Australians, who account for about 25%, followed by tourists from India, mainland China, the UK, the USA, South Korea, France, Singapore, Germany, and Malaysia.

"Australia remains Bali's main tourism market, while the Chinese market has recovered significantly after being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic," said Bali Central Statistics Agency Acting Head Kadek Agus Wirawan.

Bali aims to welcome about 6.5 million tourists in 2025.

The recovering tourism sector, especially in Bali, is expected to provide a boost to the sluggish property market. An estimated 30,000 expatriates live in Bali.

Indonesia adopts more liberal foreign ownership rules

Recently, Government Regulation No. 18 of 2021 on the Right to Manage, Right over Land, Strata Titles, and Land Registration became effective, amending Government Regulation No. 103 of 2015. The new regulation finally allows foreigners and foreign legal entities to own apartments in Indonesia.

However, foreigners are only able to own apartments in designated special economic zones, free trade zones, industrial estates, and other economic zones. Moreover, the property must be worth more than the minimum threshold, which differs depending on the province where it is located.

Accordingly, under the previous law, foreigners were only able to own land under the Right to Use land title and strata title right to use apartment units or SHPSRS ("sertifikat hak pakai atas satuan rumah susun"). GR 18/21 officially allows foreigners to own strata title rights of ownership of apartment units too.

"Ownership rights to apartment units are granted to Indonesian citizens; Indonesian legal entities; foreigners who have permits in accordance with the provisions of laws and regulations; foreign legal entities that have representatives in Indonesia; or representatives of foreign countries and international institutions that are or have representatives in Indonesia," reads the full article 67.

Recently, the qualification for property purchases by foreign buyers was simplified - allowing them to buy property using only a passport and/or visa. Previously, foreigners are required to provide proof of a limited or permanent stay permit (KITAS/KITAP). The type of titles that foreigners can hold was also upgraded from the previously limited Hak Pakai (Right to Use) to Hak Guna Bangunan (Right to Build).

Earlier, in October 2020, the Omnibus Law on Job Creation was passed, which seeks to leverage foreign property investment as one of the pillars to stimulate economic growth after the pandemic.

"The potential of a foreigner being allowed to hold a (right-to-build) title in line with Indonesian citizens is a game changer. If it also allows for foreigners to mortgage in Indonesia it will open up a much larger market than in the past when it was all cash-driven," said Terje Nilsen, CEO of Seven Stones Indonesia. "This will encourage foreigners to choose Indonesia as a first or second home option. Especially now when more and more people work from home. And they can call Bali, and other places in Indonesia home."

Before the recent measures, the last major liberalization came in December 2015, when GR 103/2015 on House Ownership of Foreigners Residing in Indonesia allowed foreigners to own landed houses in Indonesia for a period of up to 80 years. Under the law, foreigners can purchase a landed house or an apartment under the so-called "right-of-use" (hak pakai) title for an initial period of 30 years. The foreigner can extend the ownership twice - by 20 years and then by another 30 years. However, if the foreigner (or his heir) leaves Indonesia to reside in another country, then he/she needs to release or transfer the ownership rights to another person who meets all requirements.

Supply Highlights:

Jakarta's residential construction activity increasing modestly

As of Q3 2024, the total supply of apartments in Jakarta stood at 226,815 units. An additional 4,756 units were estimated to have entered the market in the last quarter of 2024. With this, the total completions last year in the capital city was 5,594 units.

"Similar to the previous quarter, no new apartments were completed, maintaining the total apartment supply in Jakarta at 226,815 units. Of the 8,452 units currently under construction, 56% are anticipated to be delivered in Q4 2024, with the majority expected in December. We expect that the cumulative supply in 2024 will be 2.5% higher compared to 2023," said Colliers.

Two new apartment projects, Edensuite Casablanca and LRT City Tebet - The Premiere MTH (Lotus Tower), were launched in the Tebet District of South Jakarta in Q3 2024, collectively offering a total of 434 units.

Accordingly, with the launch of the new tower in the LRT City project and a year after the Jabodebek LRT began operations, several projects have emerged along the LRT line. This highlights the rising popularity of transit-oriented developments among investors and homebuyers.

Tapera public housing savings program

Recently, the government enacted a law on public housing savings (Tabungan Perumahan Rakyat - Tapera) to create a new housing fund (BP Tapera) to help workers finance the purchase, construction, or renovation of their first home. All formal workers and individuals with monthly salaries at least equal to the minimum wage must contribute 3% of their pay (2.5% from employees and 0.5% from employers). However, the contribution is voluntary for private-sector companies for the first seven years, until 2028.

The new housing fund officially took effect on January 1, 2021.

Participants have the option to withdraw up to 30% of their fund balance for the purchase of a home or up to 10% for construction or improvements. In addition, those who have already made at least 12 consecutive monthly contributions will have the option to take out home loans from BP Tapera at interest rates of no greater than 5% per year.

On May 24, 2024, an amendment took effect, bringing significant changes to how Tapera savings are calculated and how FLPP (Housing Financing Liquidity Facility) funds are allocated and managed.

During 2024, 200,300 housing units were distributed under BP Tapera, with a total value of IDR 24.57 trillion (US$1.51 billion). This amount includes the addition of 34,000 FLPP quotas last year.

"For 2024, the distribution of FLPP reached 100.15 percent or 200,300 housing units worth Rp24.57 trillion. This value includes the addition of a quota of 34,000 units from the original target of 166,000 units," said BP Tapera Commissioner Heru Pudyo Nugroho.

As for the Tapera mortgage financing, the government investment operator facilitated 5,940 housing financing contracts in 2024, amounting to IDR990.218 billion (US$60.69 million).

Heru stated that since BP Tapera took over the distribution of FLPP funds in 2022 until December 20, 2024, a total of IDR 76.04 trillion (US$4.66 billion) has been disbursed, supporting the distribution of 655,300 housing units for low-income families (MBR).

The program is in line with the government's program to build one million houses annually.

Rental Market:

Rental yields moderate to good; rent movements showed mixed results

Gross rental yields on high-end properties in Indonesia are moderately good, at an average of 6.12% in Q4 2024, up from 5.68% in Q1 2024, according to recent research conducted by the Global Property Guide. Despite the improvement, it remains far lower than the 10% to 13% yields seen about a decade ago, as prices increased significantly in recent years amidst the strong demand for high-end apartments.

Gross rental yields - the return earned on the purchase price of a rental property, before taxation, vacancy costs, and other costs - are an important consideration because a high rental yield indicates that the property market is reasonably priced.

In Q4 2024, by major areas:

• In Jakarta, gross rental yields on apartments range from as low as 2.26% to as high as 9.91%, depending on location. The city's average rental yield stands at 4.27%.
• In South Tangerang, rental yields range from 6.5% to 7.77%, with a city average of 7.1%.
• In Surabaya, apartments offer rental returns from 4.91% to 9.82%, with a city average of 7.21%.
• In Tangerang, rental yields range from 5.57% to 6.17%, with a city average of 5.89%.

Rental price trends in Jakarta presented mixed outcomes in Q3 2024, with rates in CBD areas holding steady while rents in non-CBD locations experienced a decline.

"The average rental rate experienced a slight adjustment in the non-CBD area due to a newly operational project offering promotional pricing. As a result, the average rental rate in the non-CBD area declined to IDR396,651/sq m/month, while the CBD area remained constant at IDR464,453/sq m/month, unchanged from the previous quarter," said Colliers International.

Occupancy rates in Jakarta are declining, amidst increasing apartment supply. In Q3 2024, the overall occupancy rate of serviced apartments in Jakarta fell to 61.6%, down from 62.5% in the previous quarter.

"This decline is attributed to the recent surge of supply, which temporarily outpaced demand," noted Colliers International.

"The demand for serviced apartments has recently shifted from being predominantly business-driven to attracting leisure clients, especially families seeking weekend stays. This trend was largely accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which highlighted the advantages of serviced apartments, such as greater privacy and larger spaces compared to traditional hotels," added Colliers.

Property investment in Indonesia still unattractive, due to high tax rates

Despite the high rental yields, property investment is still relatively unattractive for foreigners, because of complex legalities and high tax rates on non-resident owners.

• The tax levied on the average annual income on a rental apartment/property in Indonesia is 20% which is the third highest in Asia, only after Bangladesh (25%) and Malaysia (22.4%).
• A 10% Value-added tax (VAT) is levied on gross rental income.
• Capital gains realized by individuals from the sale of real property in Indonesia are taxed at a flat rate of 5%. The tax base is the transfer value of the property, without any deductions.
• Sales of luxury houses, apartments, townhouses, and condominium units with a selling price above IDR 30 billion (US$ 1.91 million) are subject to 20% sales tax.
• Property tax is levied at 0.5% on the assessed value of the property. The assessment value of taxable property is determined as a percentage of the deemed fair market value of the property.

The total cost of buying and then re-selling a residential property (including registration costs, real estate agent fees, legal fees, sales, and transfer taxes), is one of the highest in the region. However, changes in the law are in process which should make things much easier.

Mortgage Market:

Key interest rates kept steady

Bank Indonesia kept its key rate unchanged for four consecutive months, at 6.00% in December 2024, as inflation continues to ease. The central bank also maintained the deposit facility (DF) and lending facility (LF) rates at 5.25% and 6.75%, respectively.

"The decision is consistent with the direction of monetary policy to control inflation in 2024 and 2025 within the 2.5 ±1% target corridor while supporting sustainable economic growth," said the central bank. "The focus of monetary policy is on strengthening Rupiah stability in response to heightened global economic uncertainty caused by the policy direction of the United States (US) and escalating geopolitical tensions in various regions."

Following the BI's move, mortgage interest rates in Indonesia have gradually stabilized in recent months. Currently, mortgage interest rates range from 8% to 10%.

Mortgage market continues to grow

As interest rates stabilize, the total amount of outstanding residential mortgage loans - including loans for housing, flats, and apartments - drawn to households rose by 9.7% y-o-y to IDR 750.08 trillion (US$45.97 billion) in November 2024, according to figures from Bank Indonesia. Yet it is actually below the average growth of more than 13% annually from 2010 to 2023.

By type of financial institution, as of November 2024:

• State banks: IDR 435.16 trillion (US$26.67 billion) residential mortgage loans, up 11.7% from a year earlier
• Regional government banks: IDR 31.32 trillion (US$1.92 billion), up by 5.3% from the previous year
• Private national banks: IDR 282.96 trillion (US$17.34 billion), up by 7.7% from the previous year
• Foreign banks and joint banks: IDR 632 billion (US$38.73 million), down by 57.5% from the prior year

Despite this, the ratio of mortgage credits to GDP remains very small, at around 3.3% in 2024, barely changing in the past decade, based on figures from the Global Property Guide.

Indonesian developers find financing challenging. Memories of the Asian crisis are still alive. Banks tend to be extremely cautious in extending housing loans to the real estate industry, although Indonesian banks are strong and adequately capitalized. The increased uncertainty brought by the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and global supply chain disruptions have exacerbated the situation in recent years.

That's why as of Q3 2024:

• 74.31% of residential property development projects were financed internally
• Only 15.91% were financed through bank loans
• 6.01% of projects were financed by consumer payments (pre-selling)

Socio-Economic Context:

Indonesia's economy remains strong, inflation eases

Indonesia's economy was estimated to have expanded by a robust 5% during 2024, following annual growth of 5% in 2023, 5.3% in 2022, 3.7% in 202,1 and a pandemic-induced contraction of 2.1% in 2020.

The IMF expects the Indonesian economy to grow by another 5.1% annually in the next two years, in line with the World Bank's projections.

"Indonesia's prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policy frameworks have provided the foundations for macro-stability and social gains," said Ms. Maria Gonzalez of the IMF. "Decisive policy actions facilitated a robust recovery from consecutive global shocks since 2020. Indonesia's growth remains strong despite external headwinds, inflation is low and well-contained, the financial sector is resilient, and policies are generally prudent and geared towards preserving buffers."

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the country enjoyed two decades of uninterrupted economic growth. Indonesia's resilience can be attributed to its very domestically-driven economy. It tends to be insulated from global economic trends. In fact, in recent years, Indonesia has enjoyed robust growth despite the global crisis. From 2000 to 2019, the economy grew by an average of 5.3% per year, based on IMF figures.

Inflation continues to ease. In December 2024, overall inflation stood at 1.57%, not significantly different from 1.55% in the previous month but lower than the 2.61% seen in the same period in the prior year, according to Bank Indonesia. This is now well below the central bank's target range of 2% to 4%.

From an average of 9.5% from 2001 to 2008, inflation dropped to an annual average of 4.7% from 2009 to 2019 and further to 2% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021. But it surged again to 4.1% in 2022 and remained elevated at 3.7% in 2023.

Unemployment was 4.91% in Q3 2024, slightly up from 4.82% in the previous quarter but down from 5.32% a year earlier. Over the same period, the total number of unemployed people in Indonesia dropped to 7.47 million.

Nationwide unemployment averaged 5.9% in the past decade.

Rupiah weakening, public finances still manageable

The Indonesia rupiah depreciated by 14.5% since January 2020 to reach an average monthly exchange rate of IDR 16,037 = USD 1 in December 2024. Aside from the relative strength of the US dollar, Bank Indonesia noted that the continued depreciation of the domestic currency is "spurred by increasing global financial market uncertainty given more aggressive monetary policy tightening in several countries in response to an uptick of inflationary pressures and concerns stoked by global economic moderation."

This follows a cumulative 4.4% depreciation in the value of the rupiah against the US dollar from 2016 to 2019.

Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilize the rupiah involve the implementation of a pro-market monetary policy through market mechanisms.

Despite this, the Indonesian rupiah is projected to continue depreciating into early 2025, according to Dian Ayu Yustina of Bank Mandiri, as the ongoing global economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding the upcoming US presidential inauguration in January 2025, may add further pressure to currency markets.

Accordingly, Trump's economic agenda will play a critical role in shaping key US macroeconomic indicators, including inflation and unemployment. If these indicators align with the Federal Reserve's policies, it could provide reassurance to the markets. However, any divergence between Trump's agenda and the Fed's policies may result in substantial market volatility.

The country's fiscal deficit amounted to IDR 507.8 trillion (US$31.12 billion) in 2024, which is equivalent to about 2.29% of GDP, lower than the government's earlier forecast of around 2.7%. However, it remains higher than the 2023's shortfall of 1.61% of GDP.

In 2024, government revenues increased by 2.1% compared to 2023, reaching IDR 2,842.5 trillion (US$174.2 billion). Meanwhile, government expenditures totaled IDR 3,350.3 trillion (US$205.3 billion), marking a 7.3% rise from the previous year.

The Ministry of Finance projects a deficit equivalent to about 2.53% of GDP this year.

The country's gross government debt reached around 40.5% of GDP in 2024, according to the IMF, at par with 39.6% of GDP in 2023 and 40.1% in both 2021 and 2022. Yet it is far higher than the debt level of just about 30.6% of GDP in 2019 before the pandemic.

Former military general Prabowo is Jokowi's presidential successor

Joko Widodo ("Jokowi"), the Democratic Party nominee became president of Indonesia on 20 October 2014. A man of the people, a campaigner for clean government, and a highly successful and popular former mayor of Jakarta, Jokowi was a symbol of the demand for reform.

Jokowi is popular for his ambitious infrastructure program, which includes various projects involving the construction and building of roads, railways, bridges, power stations, oil refining plants, seaports, airports, dams, and more. According to the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, 190 national strategic projects were completed from 2016 to 2023, with a total project value of IDR 1,515.4 trillion (US$92.87 billion).

Jokowi previously introduced a "Healthy Jakarta card" for health insurance, inaugurated the construction of the Jakarta MRT, and re-started the construction of the green line of the Jakarta Monorail. He also initiated programs aimed towards transparency, such as online taxes, e-budgeting, e-purchasing, and a cash management system.

The government has implemented some land reform, which involves the distribution of land certificates to the poor and offering lower taxes and financial services to buoy small businesses.

Jokowi won a second term in office during the April 2019 elections, beating former lieutenant-general and longtime rival Prabowo Subianto.

However, worrying trends toward corruption and authoritarianism have emerged. Bizarrely, he appointed Prabowo as his defense minister, despite the horrendous reputation of the former lieutenant-general, who was dishonorably discharged from the army for human rights abuses after the Asian crisis and has installed a large number of former regime members of Indonesia's late dictator Suharto's regime in his cabinet. There is also a growing tolerance of corrupt links between government and large conglomerates, reminiscent of the Suharto era, while amendments pushed through the Indonesian legislature in September 2019 have crippled Indonesia's once potent anti-corruption agency. After nine years in office, corruption remains rampant. But Jokowi remained wildly popular.

In the February 2024 elections, Prabowo secured a decisive victory over his rivals, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, largely due to Jokowi's endorsement.

Prabowo was officially sworn in as Indonesia's new president in October 2024, together with his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's eldest son. The new president pledged to advance the modernization agenda that has driven rapid growth and elevated the country to middle-income status.

Aside from his promise of continuity, Prabowo has offered few specific plans, leaving analysts uncertain about the implications of his election for the country's economy and its evolving democracy. With Prabowo's reputation, some also fear that Indonesia is in danger of sliding back towards its authoritarian past.

Sources:

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• In Q3 2024, new projects emerged concurrently with the sustained implementation of full VAT exemptions (Colliers International): https://marcom.colliers365.com/
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