South Africa's housing market continues to face challenges, weighed down by elevated interest rates, persistently high unemployment, and a sluggish economy. However, there are signs of improvement on the horizon.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

The Repeat Sales House Price Index rose by a meager 0.6% in August 2024 as compared to the same period last year, one of the lowest y-o-y price increases recorded since August 2009, according to figures released by the First National Bank (FNB). In fact, when adjusted for inflation, prices actually declined slightly by 0.83% over the same period. Real prices have been falling since May 2021.

South Africa's house price annual change

Demand remains weak, but the recent decline in inflation and the central bank's imminent rate-cutting cycle offer some optimism to the housing market. According to the FNB in its September 2024 Property Barometer report, these adjustments indicate a somewhat more positive outlook for buying activity and house price growth in the years ahead. With better economic conditions, a more manageable inflation environment, and a shift toward looser monetary policy, affordability for potential homebuyers could improve, stimulating demand and supporting house price increases.

South Africa's housing market has been sluggish over the past several years, mainly due to high unemployment, weak household finances, and an underdeveloped mortgage market. From 2007 to 2021, house prices rose by about 69% but when adjusted for inflation, real prices actually fell 19%.

Then in 2022 and 2023, nominal house prices rose by a cumulative 5.6% but declined by 7.4% in real terms. With persistently high inflation in recent years, the gap between nominal and real prices has rapidly widened. Fortunately, inflation has finally declined in recent months.

The broader economy continues to underperform. After registering a post-pandemic growth of 5% in 2021, South Africa's economic growth slowed to 1.9% in 2022, amidst the fallout of the war in Ukraine coupled with several domestic setbacks, such as floods and energy crisis. During 2023, the economy slowed further, registering a real GDP growth of a minuscule 0.6%, according to Stats SA.

South Africa's economy remains weak in the first half of this year. The economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2 2024 compared to a year earlier, following a year-on-year growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the country recorded zero growth in Q1 and a dismal expansion of 0.4% in Q2, as the minimal increases in household consumption and government spending were partially offset by negative contributions from net exports.

SARB projects the South African economy to grow by a minuscule 1.1% this year - well below the long-run average growth of 2.5%. However, economic conditions are expected to gradually improve in the coming years. This is in line with the International Monetary Fund's forecast, which expects that SA will grow by 1.1% this year and by 1.5% in 2025.

South Africa is Africa's second-biggest economy. With a population of 62.3 million and a GDP per capita of US$6,112 in 2023, it has formidable manufacturing and financial sectors. It is the world's largest exporter of gold and platinum. Tourism is also a key source of foreign exchange.

Historic Perspective:

Recalling the boom years

During South Africa's housing boom (from 2000 to 2006), house prices rose by an average of 20% annually. These price rises peaked in October 2004 with 35.7% annual growth (32.5% in real terms), according to ABSA.

The boom was driven by 4 main factors:

• The emergence of a financially stable black middle class, which had a tremendous impact on housing demand, encouraged by individual tax reliefs, in the context of a growing economy.
• South Africans who had parked money offshore during the Apartheid era were allowed (and required) to bring it back by September 2004. Much of this money went into property.
• Better stability and security helped. During Apartheid and its sequel, property prices had badly lagged the economy, as the security situation went from bad to worse.
• Lastly, the Financial Sector Charter in 2003 boosted mortgage loan growth. Financial institutions committed to providing ZAR 42 billion (US$2.32 billion) of housing finance to the low-income market. Then in 2006, the CGT exemption on primary residences was raised from ZAR 1 million (US$ 55,130) to ZAR 1.5 million (US$ 82,696). Transfer duties on properties were lowered too. For example, no transfer duty is payable on properties valued at ZAR500,000 (US$ 27,565) or less.

However the boom ground to a halt following the global financial crisis. From 2008 to 2009 house prices fell by 3.2% (-16.5% in real terms). Aside from the global crisis and rising interest rates, the decline in prices was prompted by the implementation of the National Credit Act in mid-2007, which aimed to protect borrowers from over-indebtedness, by limiting the amount of funds that can be borrowed and requiring every lender to assess borrowers' credit-worthiness. It requires lenders to disclose every term in the contract and gives the borrowers the right to request their credit report, and to challenge the report if there are inaccuracies. The act has tended to reduce the supply of mortgage loans.

The housing market rose a little in 2010, encouraged by South Africa hosting the 19th FIFA World Cup, and from 2011 to 2019, house prices rose by almost 51%. But after the ravages of inflation are deducted, that works out at a meager 0.4% growth in real terms.

House prices rose by a total of 8% in 2020 and 2021, amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet when adjusted for inflation, prices actually declined by 1.1% over the same period. During 2022, nominal house prices rose by a modest 3.2% but fell by 4% in real terms. Then in 2023, house prices increased by a meager 1% and actually declined by another 4% when adjusted for inflation, amidst a struggling economy.

Demand Highlights:

Market activity still weak, but there are few signs of optimism

Demand remains subdued, with residential market activity in South Africa weakening since last year, amidst high interest rates, coupled with sluggish economic activity.

The time-on-market, which refers to the number of days a property has been for sale from the listing date to the date the contract is signed, increased dramatically to an average of 12 weeks in 2023, up from less than 10 weeks in 2022. Though it is still slightly below the long-term average of around 13 weeks.

However, according to the FNB's September 2024 Property Barometer report, the recent decline in inflation and the central bank's imminent rate-cutting cycle offer a glimmer of hope to the housing market.

"We have revised our inflation outlook downward, primarily due to a quicker strengthening in the rand exchange rate as domestic political uncertainty has eased and global sentiment improves. This adjustment has led us to anticipate an earlier interest rate cutting cycle," said FNB.

"These adjustments suggest a slightly more optimistic outlook for buying activity and house price growth in the coming years. Improved economic activity, a more benign inflation environment, and looser monetary policy could improve affordability for potential homebuyers, stimulate demand, and support house price growth. While we maintain our predictions for 2024 and 2025, we have revised our forecasts upward for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.6%," added the FNB.

Foreign home buying remains muted

Given South Africa's economic stagnation, aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, it is maybe not surprising that home-buying by foreigners has declined in recent years, even though property in South Africa is now dramatically less expensive for foreign buyers than a decade ago.

Even taking into account the recent appreciation of the rand on the back of higher metals prices, the value of the local currency remained about 60% lower against the US dollar from January 2011 to October 2024, falling from US$ 1 = ZAR 6.943 to US$ 1 = ZAR 17.586. Yet foreign homebuyers represent only 3.74% of total home buying in South Africa, significantly down from its peak of 6.5% in 2008.

Inbound demand (i.e. from foreigners buying property in South Africa as well as from South African expats buying property locally) has remained comparatively subdued in recent years.

FNB attributed this to:

• Weak investor sentiment towards South Africa, due to the country's multi-year economic stagnation
• Uncertainty about the country's future economic policy
• Negative news, such as credit rating downgrades to "junk status"

Most foreign owners in South Africa are based in Europe, mostly in the United Kingdom, as well as Germany, Italy, Holland, and France. There are also buyers from African countries such as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Some homebuyers from China and Dubai are also eyeing properties in the KwaZulu-Natal and the Durban area, according to Craig Hutchison, chief executive of Engel &Völkers Southern Africa.

Foreigners can own immovable property in South Africa without restriction. However, all foreign funds remitted to the country must be declared and documented. The property must also be endorsed 'non-resident', as a condition for repatriation of funds.

Non-resident investors have to pay Capital Gains Tax when they later sell their properties. The purchaser of the property is required to deduct a prescribed percentage from the proceeds of the sale and remit it directly to the South African Revenue Service before paying the balance to the seller.

Supply Highlights:

Residential construction activity plummeting

Residential construction in South Africa continues to decline. During 2023, the total number of residential building plans approved fell by a huge 25.8% y-o-y to 36,994 dwellings units, worse than the prior year's 4.3% fall and in contrast with annual growth of 35.1% in 2021, according to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Likewise, residential dwelling completions declined by 13.7% to 28,734 units last year, following increases of 2.1% in 2022 and 34.8% in 2021.

The weakness of the housing market continued this year, with both residential approvals and dwelling completions falling further in the first eight months of 2024.

For residential building approvals:

• For houses measuring less than 80 sq. m, approvals plunged by 31% y-o-y to 3,740 units in January-August 2024.
• For houses measuring 80 sq. m and above, approvals were down by 11.3% y-o-y to 7,419 units in the first eight months of 2024.
• For flats and townhouses, approvals dropped by 14.7% y-o-y to 10,193 units over the same period.

For residential completions:

• For houses measuring less than 80 sq. m, completions fell sharply by 41.8% y-o-y to 3,179 units in the first eight months of 2024.
• For houses measuring 80 sq.m and above, completions were down by 14.6% to 4,958 units in Jan-Aug 2024 from the same period last year.
• For flats and townhouses, completions fell by a modest 4.3% y-o-y to 6,747 units over the same period.

"Our market strength indices show both demand and supply in negative territory. We suspect that the supply index largely reflects the decline in the construction of new housing units in response to lower demand," said FNB.

"It is also possible that the unfavorable selling conditions, characterized by diminished affordability and tighter lending standards, are causing some homeowners to re-evaluate their decisions," added FNB.

Rental Market:

Rental yields are very good

Despite all these, from one perspective property owners should be happy. The gross rental yields for apartments in South Africa, i.e., the gross rental return on a property if fully rented out, are spectacularly high, at an average of 9.96% in Q4 2024, slightly down from 10.15% in Q1 2024, according to a research conducted by the Global Property Guide.

In Johannesburg, apartments offer rental returns ranging from 8.36% to as high as 15.22% in Q4 2024, with a city average of 11.14%. The most desirable neighborhoods in Johannesburg are in the north of the city, including suburbs like Dunkeld, Hyde Park, Houghton, Illovo, Inanda, Melrose, Parkhurst, Parktown, Parkview, Sandhurst, Saxonwold, and Westcliff. Nelson Mandela has a house in Houghton.

In Cape Town, gross rental yields on apartments are lower, currently ranging from 7.2% to 11.23%, with a city average of 7.99% in Q4 2024.

Cape Town is the most popular tourist destination in Africa. Its amazing beaches and weather are ideal for retirees and foreign property buyers. Atlantic Seaboard properties are among the most sought-after because of the beaches and cliffs - upscale neighborhoods like Bakoven, Bantry Bay, Camps, Clifton, Fresnaye, Green Point, and Mouille Point. Some houses nestled on cliffs have sweeping views of the Atlantic Ocean. City Bowl, which includes the central business district of Cape Town, is another upscale residential suburb. It is one of the most stable residential markets in Cape Town, because of its prime central location and vibrant cosmopolitan lifestyle.

In other locations:

• In Durban, gross rental yields for apartments currently range from 7.68% to 12.07% in Q4 2024, with a city average of 10.39%.
• In Centurion, gross rental yields range from 10.53% to 13.03%, with a city average of 11.38%.
• In KZN South Coast, apartment rental yields range from 9.12% to 10.67%, with a city average of 10.13%.
• In Dolphin Coast, apartment rental yields range from 6.66% to 10.27%, with an average of 8.75%.

Mortgage Market:

Interest rates remain high, despite SARB's recent rate cut

In September 2024, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the country's central bank, slashed its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 8%, following seven consecutive meetings of maintaining the key rate unchanged at a 15-year peak of 8.25%. The recent move marks the central bank's first policy easing since the pandemic, as inflation eased.

South Africa's mortgage loan interest rates:

"In discussing the stance, MPC members considered an unchanged stance, a 25-basis point cut, and a 50-basis point cut. The MPC ultimately reached consensus on 25 basis points, agreeing that a less restrictive stance was consistent with sustainably lower inflation over the medium term," said SARB.

Prior to this, the central bank implemented ten straight rate hikes in less than two years, in an effort to rein in inflationary pressures.

"The MPC's main contribution is to deliver low and stable inflation, with well-anchored inflation expectations," reiterated the central bank. "We also recommend additional measures that would improve economic conditions. These include reaching a prudent public debt level, further repairing and strengthening network industries, lowering administered price inflation, and keeping real wage growth in line with productivity gains."

Despite the rate cut, the repo rate remains historically high. In line with this, prime and variable mortgage rates are still elevated. In September 2024, the predominant rate on new mortgage loans stood at 11.75%, unchanged from a year earlier but up from 9.75% two years ago.

Housing loans rising modestly, size of the mortgage market remains steady

Despite increasing interest rates, housing loans continue to rise modestly, amid an increased willingness of banks to provide loans to prospective borrowers. In September 2024, total mortgage advances rose by 3.12% to about ZAR 1.87 trillion (US$102.84 billion), according to figures from SARB.

"Loan-to-price ratios, a proxy for loan-to-value, have continued to rise, suggesting willingness by lenders to finance a bigger proportion of the purchase price," said the FNB. "....the surge in LTPs predates the pandemic - it began in 2017 - and is largely attributed to intense competition among lenders in a thin volume market."

This is supported by other local market experts. "Property ownership is now more accessible...Potentially renters may be able to buy a home at a lower monthly cost than their current rental payment," said Rhys Dyer, chief executive of home loan comparison service firm, Ooba.

However, the housing loan growth is notably slower as compared to the annual average growth of 4.6% in 2009-23, and far lower than the average growth of 21% in 2002-08.

Overall, the size of the mortgage market relative to GDP remains more or less steady. As a percentage of GDP, the mortgage market stood at more than 26% in 2023, almost unchanged in the past seven years but still down from an average of 34% of GDP in 2009-2011.

"Over the last ten years, the mortgage market has not made notable expansions, but instead has remained fairly steady, at an average of 122,000 bonds issued a year," said the Centre for Affordable Housing Finance in Africa (CAHF).

Socio-Economic Context:

Household finances are troublingly weak, aggravated by high unemployment

Many households in South Africa are under financial strain, because of slow economic growth and low employment levels. The net household savings rate stood at -1.1% of disposable income in 2023, worse than 0% in 2022 and 0.7% in 2021.

The ratio of household debt to disposable income was 62.2% in Q2 2024, slightly down from 63% in the previous quarter, according to SARB's September 2024 Quarterly Bulletin. It hovered at about 62% to 63% in the past two years. Yet it was far lower than the 77% recorded four years ago.

"Household debt as a percentage of nominal disposable income edged lower from 63.0% in the first quarter of 2024 to 62.2% in the second quarter as the increase in nominal disposable income exceeded that in household debt," said the central bank.

Households' debt-service cost to disposable income stood at 9.1% in Q2 2024, slightly down from 9.2% in the previous quarter but up from 9% in Q4 2023.

"Households' cost of servicing debt relative to disposable income decreased marginally from 9.2% to 9.1% over this period, reflecting the slower pace of increase in the stock of debt, while the prime lending rate remained unchanged," noted the central bank.

Total outstanding household debt in the country grew by an annual average rate of 5.2% from 2015 to 2022 and reached ZAR 2.78 trillion (US$153.26 billion) in 2023. Of which, credit extended by banks accounted for 75%, while non-bank institutions accounted for the remaining 25%. Mortgage advances, the largest credit category, represented about 45.7% of the total household debt in 2023.

The very high unemployment rate has been exacerbated by the health crisis in the previous years. In Q3 2024, the official unemployment rate stood at 32.1%, down from 33.5% in the previous quarter but up from 31.9% a year earlier, according to Stats SA. It remains far higher than the 29.1% before the pandemic. When the expanded definition is used, which includes those discouraged from seeking work, the jobless rate actually stood at 41.9% during the latest quarter.

Youth unemployment, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, was 60.2% in Q3 2024, slightly down from 60.8% in the previous quarter.

The total number of unemployed people in South Africa totaled 8 million in Q3 2024, the lowest figure in almost a year.

Poor economic performance, easing inflation

South Africa is Africa's second-biggest economy. With a population of 61.5 million and a GDP per capita of US$6,112 in 2023, it has formidable manufacturing and financial sectors. It is the world's largest exporter of gold and platinum. Tourism is also a key source of foreign exchange.

After registering a post-pandemic growth of 5% in 2021, South Africa's economic growth slowed to 1.9% in 2022, amidst the fallout of the war in Ukraine coupled with several domestic setbacks, such as floods and energy crisis. During 2023, the economy slowed further, registering a real GDP growth of a minuscule 0.6%, according to Stats SA.

South Africa's economic performance remains poor in the first half of this year. The economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2 2024 compared to a year earlier, following a year-on-year growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the country recorded zero growth in Q1 and a dismal expansion of 0.4% in Q2, as the minimal increases in household consumption and government spending were partially offset by negative contributions from net exports.

"On a quarterly basis, the domestic economy recorded no growth in the first quarter of this year, followed by a modest rebound of 0.4% in the second quarter. The SARB projects near-term growth of 0.6% in the third and fourth quarters as household spending gets a boost from declining inflation and the two-pot retirement reform respectively," said SARB.

SARB projects the South African economy to grow by a minuscule 1.1% this year - well below the long-run average growth of 2.5%. However, economic conditions are expected to gradually improve in the coming years.

"Going forward, output is expected to expand at a progressively increasing pace as the economy's productive potential gradually lifts," added the central bank.

This is in line with the International Monetary Fund's forecast, which expects that SA will grow by 1.1% this year and by 1.5% in 2025.

"South Africa's economy has shown resilience in the face of massive disruptions, but persisting structural challenges risk a further erosion of living standards," said the IMF. "Despite unprecedented electricity shortages and bottlenecks at rails and ports last year, growth stayed positive, as economic agents adapted. However, per-capita income growth continued to decline, public debt rose further, and unemployment and poverty rates remained at unacceptably high levels."

Inflationary pressures continue to ease. In October 2024, the annual headline inflation was 2.8%, sharply down from 3.8% in the previous month and 5.9% in the same period last year, based on figures from Stats SA. This is now below the SARB's inflation target range of 3% to 6%. Nationwide inflation averaged less than 5% from 2010 to 2021, before accelerating to 6.9% in 2022. Inflation eased to 5.9% in 2023.

South Africa's public finances show signs of improvement. During 2023, the budget deficit stood at 4.9% of GDP, up from 4.2% of GDP in 2022 but down from 5.7% of GDP in 2021, 10% in 2020 and 6.9% in 2019. Yet, it remains higher than the annual average shortfall of 4.4% in 2012-18. The country's public finances worsened during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic after President Cyril Ramaphosa introduced a fiscal stimulus package worth ZAR 500 billion (US$27.57 billion), or a tenth of the economy - the largest ever spending plan in the country's history.

The budget deficit is expected to be equivalent to about 5% of GDP this year, as payroll increases and high social spending are expected to offset revenue growth.

South Africa's debt burden was equivalent to 72.2% of GDP in 2023, slightly down from 72.8% in 2022, but still the second highest in the country's recent history.

All three major credit rating agencies affirmed South Africa's sovereign credit ratings:

• In April 2022, Moody's affirmed South Africa's sovereign credit rating of Ba2 (equivalent to "junk status) but changed its outlook from negative to stable, amidst an "improved fiscal outlook that raises the likelihood of the government's debt burden stabilizing over the medium term."
• In September 2024, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BB-' with a stable outlook.
• Then in November 2024, Standard & Poor's also affirmed the country's long-term sovereign rating at 'BB-/B' but revised its outlook from stable to positive. The positive outlook reflects the potential for stronger-than-expected growth, supported by government debt stabilization, if the new coalition government is able to accelerate economic reforms while managing pressures related to infrastructure and fiscal matters.

"South Africa's 'BB-' IDR is constrained by low real GDP growth, a high level of inequality, a high and rising government debt-to-GDP ratio, and a modest path of fiscal consolidation. Growth is hampered by power shortages that are expected to continue in the near to medium term, although at a lower magnitude than in recent months, and by a struggling logistic sector," said Fitch Ratings.

"The ratings are supported by a favorable debt structure with long maturities and mostly local-currency-denominated, strong institutions, as well as a credible monetary policy framework," added Fitch Ratings.

Ramaphosa re-elected as South Africa's president

In June 2024, South Africa's parliament re-elected Cyril Pamaphosa as the country's president following a landmark coalition deal with the governing ANC, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), and smaller parties. The deal followed weeks of speculation on who would hold power in the new administration after ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in three decades in the May 2024 elections. ANC got 40% of the votes while the DA came in second with 22%.

During his inauguration, Ramaphosa highlighted the coalition's firm commitment to addressing long-standing inequalities and driving economic growth in the country.

Ramaphosa was elected president by parliament in February 2018 after his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, resigned over corruption allegations.

Ramaphosa was Nelson Mandela's choice for future president. He is a trade union leader, MP, long-time ANC stalwart, and successful businessman, with a fortune of US$675 million, according to a Forbes estimate.

His business career has not been without controversy, with several accusations of bribery and corruption, but nothing on the scale of the accusations against Zuma. He was also implicated in the August 2012 Marikana massacre, when 34 striking miners were shot dead. Previously he was Deputy President under Zuma.

Ramaphosa passed his first test when the African National Congress (ANC) won the May 2019 parliamentary elections, although its 57.5% share of the vote was its lowest margin of victory since apartheid was overturned 25 years ago.

However, many were dismayed by Ramaphosa's overly cautious handling of the country's struggling economy, the seemingly slow implementation of reforms, as well as his failure to rein in corruption. Public frustration grew in December 2019 when the beleaguered power utility, Eskom, left South Africans facing the worst blackouts in the country's history.

Ramaphosa's government has also come under fire for its handling of the health crisis and for delays in acquiring and rolling out vaccines.

But the biggest test to Ramaphosa's government is the Phala Phala controversy, which surrounds an alleged cover-up of a robbery that took place at his Phala Phala private farm, back in February 2020. The robbery and the alleged cover-up were first brought to light in June 2022 by Arthur Fraser, South Africa's former head of the State Security Agency.

Despite the scandal, Ramaphosa was reelected president of the ANC at the party's leadership conference in December 2022. Also, the official report from the public protector's investigation, released on June 30, 2023, indicated that no evidence of wrongdoing by Ramaphosa had been found.

Sources:

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2. FNB Property Barometer September 2024 (BondExcel): https://www.bondexcel.co.za/
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