The U.S. house price boom continues strong, despite pandemic

Lalaine C. Delmendo | October 18, 2021

The great housing boom in the U.S. continues unabated after eight years of strong house price growth. It has been buoyed by continued low interest rates and by the government’s massive stimulus packages to cushion the impact of the pandemic. A limited supply of properties in the market has added to upward house price pressure.

The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by an amazing 19.7% during the year to July 2021 (13.61% inflation-adjusted), a sharp acceleration from the previous year’s 4.85% growth and the biggest y-o-y increase ever recorded. This is supported by figures released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which showed that its seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index rose by 19.17% y-o-y in July 2021 (13.11% inflation-adjusted), sharply up from the prior year’s 6.92% growth and also the highest annual growth on record.

House prices continue to rise strongly in all of the country’s 20 major cities, according to Standard and Poor’s, with Phoenix posting the highest increase of 32.41% y-o-y in July 2021, followed by San Diego (27.79%), Seattle (25.5%), Tampa (24.41%), Dallas (23.66%), Las Vegas (22.45%), Miami (22.23%), San Francisco (21.98%), Denver (21.31%), and Charlotte (20.89%). Strong house price rises were also seen in Portland (19.54%), Los Angeles (19.12%), Boston (18.73%), Atlanta (18.48%), New York (17.86%), Cleveland (16.23%), Detroit (16.12%), Washington (15.84%), Minneapolis (14.56%), and Chicago (13.32%).

Us house price indices 10 cities

The Mountain region had the highest house price increases of 25.57% y-o-y in July 2021, followed by Pacific (22%), New England (20.84%), and South Atlantic (20.16%), according to FHFA. Strong house price rises were also registered in the East South Central (18.29%), Middle Atlantic (17.99%), West South Central (17.68%), East North Central (16.2%), and West North Central (15.55%).

The median sales price of new homes sold soared 20.1% y-o-y in August 2021, to US$390,900, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For existing homes, the median price was up by 14.9% to US$356,700 in August 2021 from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

However limited supply is now restricting sales. Existing home sales fell slightly by 1.5% y-o-y to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million units in August 2021, according to figures from NAR. Likewise, new homes sold fell by 24.3% y-o-y to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 740,000 units in August 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Home price appreciation continues to escalate as millennials entering their prime home buying years, renters looking to escape skyrocketing rents and deep pocketed investors drive demand,” said Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic. “On the supply side, it is also the result of chronic under building, especially of affordable stock. This lack of supply is unlikely to be resolved over the next 5 to 10 years without more aggressive incentives for builders to add new units.”

The total number of existing homes available for sale fell by 13.4% y-o-y to 1.29 million units in August 2021, according to NAR. Existing homes inventory was only at 2.6 months supply, down from 3 months a year earlier and from 4 months supply two years ago.

US house prices

U.S. homebuilder sentiment stood at 76 in September 2021, up slightly from 75 in the previous month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). A reading of 50 is the midpoint between positive and negative. Sentiment stood at 83 in September 2020 and reached a record high of 90 in November. It then dropped dramatically in the following months, as lumber prices surged and supply chain disruptions hampered construction activity.

The U.S. Fed recently upgraded its 2021 economic growth forecast to 7%, from its earlier estimate of a 6.5% growth, amidst accelerated vaccine distribution and new government stimulus efforts. Last year, the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the biggest decline since the demobilization from World War II in 1946. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in August 2021, sharply down from 8.4% a year earlier and from a peak of 14.8% in April 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it remains higher than the average unemployment rate of 4.4% from 2015 to 2019.

The U.S. house price cycle

The last housing crash began in Q2 2006. There was a 33.3% fall in the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index from Q2 2006 to Q4 2011. Phoenix registered the biggest drop (-54.7%) among the twenty largest metro areas, followed by Miami (-50.5%), Detroit (-43.3%), San Francisco (-40.8%), Los Angeles (-40.1%), and San Diego (-39.7%).

HOUSE PRICE CHANGE (%)

US Cities Housing boom (Jan 1996-Mar 2006) Housing crash (Apr 2006-Dec 2011) Housing recovery (Jan 2012-Dec 2019) COVID-19 pandemic (Jan 2020-Jul 2021)
New York 172.58 -24.45 25.57 19.69
Los Angeles 265.48 -40.06 74.25 22.56
Chicago 96.84 -33.47 31.73 15.11%
Phoenix 182.59 -54.73 82.21 38.61
San Diego 247.66 -39.68 68.74 34.49
Dallas - -7.53 71.21 27.31
San Francisco 226.59 -40.82 105.19 27.47
Detroit 71.99 -43.31 81.69 19.33
Boston 152.49 -16.38 51.08 21.81
Seattle 134.22 -23.97 95.56 34.24
Composite-10 192.25 -33.52 55.22 21.68
Composite-20 - -33.31 60.52 22.74
Sources: S&P, Global Property Guide

The U.S. housing market started to recover in the second half of 2012. In 2013, the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index soared 13.5%, then rose by 4.4% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, 5.4% in 2016, 6.2% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and by 2.8% in 2019.

And despite the pandemic, the U.S. housing market surprisingly continued its strong growth, with the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index rising by a huge 22.7% in Jan 2020-Jul 2021. Phoenix led the boom, with house prices surging by 38.6% over the period.

Nationwide home sales falling, amidst limited supply

Existing home sales (which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and coops) stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million units in August 2021, down slightly by 1.5% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

By region:

  • In the Northeast, existing home sales fell by 2.7% in August 2021 from a year earlier, to an annual rate of 730,000 units.
  • In the Midwest, existing home sales fell by 2.1% in August 2021 from a year earlier, to 1.37 million units.
  • In the South, existing home sales dropped slightly by 0.8% to 2.55 million units in August 2021 from a year earlier.
  • In the West, existing home sales dropped 1.6% y-o-y to 1.23 million units in August 2021.

First-time homebuyers accounted for about 29% of total sales in August 2021, down from 30% in the previous month and from 33% a year ago, according to NAR. In addition, all-cash sales were 22% of all transactions in August 2021, up from 18% a year earlier. Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in August 2021, slightly up from 14% in the previous year.

US new houses sold

Residential properties typically stayed on the market for 17 days in August 2021, down from 22 days a year earlier, according to NAR. About 87% of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month, a significantly higher percentage as compared to 69% a year ago.

Homebuilder sentiment improves

With improved homebuilder sentiment, residential construction activity is now rising strongly again.

August 2021 (at seasonally adjusted annual rate):

  • Housing starts: 1,615,000 units, up 17.4% from a year earlier
  • Housing completions: 1,330,000 units, up 9.4% from a year earlier
  • Housing permits: 1,728,000 units, up 13.5% from a year earlier

During the previous boom, completions peaked at almost 2,000,000 units in 2006, but crashed to 584,900 units in 2011.

The total number of existing homes available for sale fell by 13.4% y-o-y to 1.29 million units in August 2021, according to NAR. Existing homes inventory was at 2.6 months supply, down from 3 months a year earlier and from 4 months supply two years ago. The equivalent inventory of new houses for sale was 6.1 months of supply, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Moratorium causes foreclosure filings to artificially hit all-time low

Foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions, were down 61% in the 1st 6 months of 2021 from H1 2020 and by 78% from H1 2019, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

“The government’s foreclosure moratorium and mortgage forbearance program have created an unprecedented situation – historically high numbers of seriously delinquent loans and historically low levels of foreclosure activity,” said Rick Sharga, executive Vice President of RealtyTrac.

US foreclosure activity

“With the moratorium scheduled to end on July 31, and half of the remaining borrowers in forbearance scheduled to exit that program over the next six months, we should start to get a more accurate read on the level of financial distress the pandemic has caused for homeowners across the country.”

US deliquency rate

The foreclosure rate was 0.05% of all housing units in the U.S. in the first half of 2021, down from 0.12% in H1 2020, 0.36% in 2019, 0.47% in 2018, 0.51% in 2017, 0.7% in 2016 and from the peak of 2.23% in 2010. Delaware had the highest foreclosure rate in the country in H1 2021, at 0.1% of all housing units with a foreclosure filing, followed by Illinois (0.09%), Florida (0.08%), Ohio (0.08%), and Indiana (0.08%).

Likewise, the delinquency rate on single-family mortgages fell to 2.49% in Q2 2021, from 2.55% in Q2 2020, 2.61% in Q2 2019, and 3.19% in Q2 2018, according to the U.S. Fed.

Mortgage rates falling

In September 2021, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 0% to 0.25%, after cutting it from a target range of 1% to 1.25% in March 2020 to buoy economic activity amidst the coronavirus pandemic. In its recent meeting, the Fed indicated that it intends to hold the key rate to near zero despite rising inflationary pressures. In the past three months, inflation averaged 5.4% - the highest in 13 years and far above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that as the economy reopens, an upward pressure on prices is expected due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors. But Powell said that long-run inflation expectations are in line with the target of 2%.

US interest rates

As a result, mortgage interest rates continue to fall.

  • The average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages (FRMs) was 2.84% in August 2021, down from 2.94% in August 2020 and 3.62% in August 2019.
  • The average rate for 15-year FRMs was 2.15% in August 2021, down from 2.48% a year ago and 3.08% two years ago.
  • The average rate for 5-year adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) fell to 2.42% in August 2021, from 2.91% in August 2020 and 3.36% two years earlier.

US outstanding mortgage debt

Mortgage debt outstanding rose by 5.8% y-o-y to US$17.26 trillion in Q2 2021 from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve System. One- to four-family residences accounted for almost 70% of the total amount of mortgage loans outstanding. The size of the mortgage market was equivalent to about 80.1% of GDP in 2020, sharply up from an average of 75.7% in the past five years, but still far lower than the 100.1% of GDP in 2009, based on Global Property Guide estimates.

Rents surging

Rising rents are another sign of healthy economic fundamentals. The median asking rent in the U.S. soared by 18.9% y-o-y to US$1,228 per month in Q2 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau - the highest level ever recorded.

By region:

  • In the Northeast, the median asking rent surged 16.7% in Q2 2021 from a year earlier, to US$1,493 per month.
  • In the West, the median asking rent rose strongly by 12.5% to US$1,690 per month in Q2 2021 from a year earlier.
  • In the South, the median asking rent rose by 9.4% y-o-y to US$1,083 per month in Q2 2021.
  • In the Midwest, the median asking rent were steady at US$907 per month in Q2 2021.

US median asking rent

Median rents were more or less static from 2008 to 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However since 2015, rents have risen at least as fast as house prices.

US rental vacancy

Despite the pandemic, the nationwide rental vacancy rate dropped to 6.3% during 2020, the lowest level since 1998. But in Q2 2021, the rental vacancy rate rose to 6.2%, from 5.7% a year earlier, according to figures from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The West had the lowest rental vacancy rate of 4.8% in Q2 2021, though it is higher than the previous year’s 3.8%. It was followed by the Northeast (5.6%) and the South (6.9%). The Midwest had the highest rental vacancy rate of 7.3% over the same period.

US house price rents

Homeownership rate stabilizes

The homeownership rate in the U.S. stood at 65.4% in Q2 2021, down from 65.6% in the previous quarter and 67.9% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

US home ownership rate

By region:

  • In the Midwest, the homeownership rate was 70.7% in Q2 2021, up from 70.3% in the previous quarter but down from 71.4% a year ago.
  • In the South, the homeownership rate stood at 67.1% in Q2 2021, down from 67.4% in the previous quarter and 71.1% in Q2 2020.
  • In the Northeast, the homeownership rate was 61.8% in Q2 2021, sharply down from 63.1% in the previous quarter and 63.3% a year earlier.
  • In the West, homeownership rate was 60.1% in Q2 2021, up from 59.7% in the previous quarter but down from 62.6% a year ago.

The TCJA: who are the winners?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump signed a landmark tax law (known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or TCJA), the largest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in over 30 years, effective January 1, 2018. The law included a massive reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. But it also reduced the mortgage interest deduction cap, increased standard deductions, but restricted state and local tax deductions.

Three years after, it seems that increased disposable income is outweighing the loss of tax benefits. Based on a recent study conducted by the Tax Policy Center, about 65% of U.S. households got a tax cut while only 6% paid more.

  • Mortgage interest deduction cap decreases. The new law caps the deduction threshold, which helps homeowners lower their taxable income, on new homes at the first US$750,000 of a loan from the original US$1 million.
  • Standard deduction increases. The new law raises the standard deduction for all taxpayers to US$12,000 for single filers and to US$24,000 for joint filers. This implies that it may no longer be better for some households to itemize the mortgage interest deduction since it would be lower than their standard deduction.
  • The state and local tax (SALT) deduction restricted. The new law caps the SALT deduction at US$10,000 of property value, individual income, and sales taxes. This has the greatest impact on high-income households since about 93% of households earning US$200,000 to US$300,000 annually claim the SALT deduction, compared with only 39% of households earning US$50,000 to US$75,000.

Higher-income households reap the biggest benefits from the new law since their tax rates were significantly reduced. Based on income bracket:

Household income % of households who got a tax cut
Under US$30,000 32.1%
US$30,000 – US$50,000 69.1%
US$50,000 – US$75,000 81.7%
US$75,000 – US$100,000 86.6%
Over US$100,000 89.5%
Sources: Tax Policy Center, MarketWatch

TCJA’s US$10,000 limitation on deductions for state and local taxes appears to have accelerated relocations from high-tax states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey to low-tax and no-tax states such as Colorado, Idaho, Florida, Texas, Utah, and Nevada.

Recovering economy, falling unemployment

The U.S. Fed recently upgraded its 2021 economic growth forecast to 7%, from its earlier projection of a 6.5% growth last March.  The U.S. economy contracted by 3.5% during 2020, in contrast to an annual growth of 2.2% in 2019 and the biggest decline since the demobilization from World War II in 1946, as the country was ravaged by the global pandemic last year.

US gdp inflation

The federal budget deficit is projected at about US$3 trillion in 2021, slightly down from US$3.13 trillion in 2020 but more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019, mainly driven by the government’s massive spending and stimulus aids on pandemic relief, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). As a percentage of GDP, the deficit is expected to fall to slightly to 13.4% this year, from a record high of 14.9% in 2020.

The federal debt will reach 103% of GDP in 2021, from 100% of GDP in 2020, according to the CBO. Such a fiscal imbalance has not been seen in the U.S. since the end of World War II.

US unemployment

Nationwide inflation eased to 5.3% in August 2021 from a 13-year high of 5.4% in June and July, but it is still far higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. The unusually high inflation is mainly due to widespread shortages of labor and business supplies.

In August 2021, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, sharply down from 8.4% a year earlier and from a peak of 14.8% in April 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it remains higher than the average unemployment rate of 4.4% from 2015 to 2019.

Foreign buyer interest in the U.S. is falling.

Foreign homebuyers purchased 107,000 U.S. properties from April 2020 to March 2021, down 30.5% from a year earlier, according to NAR’s 2021 Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate. This is not surprising given the imposition of pandemic-related travel restrictions and border closures worldwide. The total number of homes purchased by foreign buyers accounted for just 1.8% of the total existing homes sold over the period, down from a 2.8% share in the previous period.

Likewise, the value of existing homes purchased by foreigners during the same period dropped 27% to US$54.4 billion. The Canadian buyers accounted for 8% of all foreign transactions, followed by Mexicans (7%), Chinese (6%), Indians (4%), and the Britons (4%).

Five states in the U.S. saw the strongest foreign buyer interest – Florida (accounting for 21% share of all purchases by foreign buyers), California (16%), Texas (9%), Arizona (5%) and New Jersey (4%). Unfortunately most have been hit by coronavirus-related travel restrictions since last year. But in all cases, the buoyant domestic market has more than outweighed any slowdown in foreign demand.

Florida

Florida’s housing market is buoyed primarily by foreign investors rather than local homebuyers. Typically, one in 5 foreign buyers in the US purchased their properties in Florida, according to NAR. About 38% of Canadian buyers, often referred to as snow birds, purchased in Florida.

“Many Canadians and other foreigners found Florida so enticing because of its lenient tax laws,” said NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Additionally, many Florida metro areas have an inventory of cheaper properties, relatively speaking – a combination which makes the state a very popular destination.”

In July 2021, Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes rose by a huge 20.3% y-o-y to US$355,000, according to Florida Realtors. Likewise, statewide median price for condo-townhouse properties soared 20.5% y-o-y to US$253,000 over the same period.

“Our economic experts report that active listings (inventory) of single-family homes continued to rise throughout July (from its lowest level), which eventually could be good news for buyers who have been sidelined by the shortage of homes for sale,” said 2021 Florida Realtors President Cheryl Lambert. “However, any rebound in inventory is going to be slow, and it will take a long while to get back to the levels we had pre-pandemic.”

Florida is one of the most populated states in the United States. Many of its cities are heavily dependent on retirees, with residents aged 60 years and older comprising more than 20% of the population. In fact in Naples, they make up more than 61%, according to a Forbes article.

Inventory remains extremely tight, with active listings for single-family existing homes at a very low 1.2 months supply and 1.8 months supply for condos and townhouses, according to Florida Realtors.

California

California is the most populous US state with more than 39.8 million residents, and the second most popular destination for foreign homebuyers, next to Florida. The state accounted for about 16% of all international purchases in the country in the 12-month ending March 2021, according to NAR. About 47% of California’s foreign buyers came from Asia and Oceania. It was the top destination among Chinese and Indian buyers.

Southern California had been particularly popular with Chinese parents hoping to send their children to American universities. However in the midst of a growing trade war between the US and China, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, overall Chinese investment in the US housing market has been falling.

In August 2021, existing single-family home sales in California fell by 10.9% y-o-y to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 414,860 units, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR). Despite the sales decline, statewide home sales remained strong by pre-pandemic standards, maintaining a solid year-to-date increase of 21.3% in August 2021. The median number of days it took to sell a California home was 9 days in August 2021, down from 13 days a year earlier and 23 days two years ago.

The unsold inventory index was 1.9 months in August 2021, down from last year’s level of 2.1 months supply.

“While home sales at the lower end of the market are underperforming due to a lack of supply and the economic uncertainty induced by the COVID resurgence, the higher-priced segments continue to see double-digit sales growth that’s keeping the overall market from moderating too fast,” said CAR Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With interest rates expected to stay low for the rest of the year, sales in California will remain solid by pre-pandemic standards while price growth will likely ease further in the coming months.” 

The statewide median home price soared 17.1% y-o-y to reach a new record high of US$827,940 in August 2021, based on figures from CAR. All major regions saw double-digit price increases from the previous year. The Far North registered the highest median price growth of 19.1% y-o-y in August 2021, followed by Southern California (18.8%), the San Francisco Bay Area (18.4%), the Central Valley (16.9%), and the Central Coast (11.4%).

Texas

Texas is another favorite destination for international investors, especially for Mexican and Indian homebuyers. The “Lone Star State” steadily represents about 9% to 12% of all US homes sold to foreign buyers annually. About 29% of buyers from Mexico bought homes in Texas in April 2020 to March 2021. Texas is also a hotspot for buyers from India (11%), the UK (7%), China (4%) and Canada (3%).

However similar to the national trend, foreign property sales in Texas have fallen by double-digit figures last year. But aside from foreign investors, Texas is also a popular location for domestic buyers because it has no state income tax. These local investors kept the market afloat during the pandemic.

In Q2 2021, total closed sales rose by 24.7% y-o-y to 114,772 units, according to Texas Realtors.

Statewide median home price rose strongly by 19.1% to US$300,490 in Q2 2021 from a year earlier, a sharp acceleration from the prior year’s 2.9% rise, based on figures from Texas Realtors.

In Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington area, which accounts for almost 27% of the Texas market, the median price rose by 22.4% y-o-y to US$349,381 in Q2 2021. The median price also skyrocketed 42.4% to US$470,000 in Austin-Round Rock area, and by 17.9% to US$300,728 in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land area.

Residential properties in Texas typically stayed on the market for 71 days in Q2 2021, down from 93 days in Q2 2020. Inventory was at a 1.4 months supply in Q2 2021, sharply down from 2.9 months in Q2 2020 and 3.9 months in Q2 2019.

Arizona

Arizona’s housing market remains tight, amidst strong population growth coupled with low housing supply. In the Phoenix Metro Area, the median sales price rose strongly by 24.6% y-o-y to US$405,000 in August 2021, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (ARMLS). This is in line with the S&P/Case-Shiller index which showed that Phoenix saw the highest y-o-y house price growth during the year to Q2 2021.

In August 2021, total sales were down 3% to 8,614 units from a year earlier. New inventory was almost unchanged from a year earlier, at 9,908 units. Despite this, total inventory was down 14.4% to 11,562 units over the same period. In fact, the inventory was at 1.34 months supply in August 2021.

Residential properties typically stayed on the market for just 29 days in August 2021, sharply down from 51 days in August 2020 and 63 days two years ago.

Arizona, especially its capital Phoenix, draws interest from foreign homebuyers because of its year-round sunny weather and warm temperatures. It is also known for its high-end spa resorts, vibrant nightclubs and Jack Nicklaus-designed golf courses. The Grand Canyon, recognized as one of the seven natural wonders of the world, attracts millions of visitors each year.

New Jersey

New Jersey is known for its 130 miles of coastline, spanning from Sandy Hook to Cape May. Its beautiful white-sand beaches and boardwalks draw hundreds of thousands of visitors every year – with many of whom decide to purchase a home later on. Particularly famous is the Jersey Shore because of its unique natural, residential, and cultural characteristics owing to its location by the ocean. New Jersey is also known for its Italian population and preserved Victorian buildings.

In August 2021, New Jersey’s median sales price for existing single-family homes rose by 12.9% y-o-y to US$461,000, based on figures from the New Jersey Realtors. Likewise, statewide median price for condo-townhouse properties were up by 9.1% y-o-y to US$315,000.

Closed sales for single-family homes were down 10.3% y-o-y to 8,801 units in August 2021 but were up 10.9% to 2,718 units for condos and townhouses, according to New Jersey Realtors. However during the first eight months of 2021, closed sales for both single-family homes, and condos and townhouses actually increased 13.1% and 37.8%, respectively.

The average days on the market for single-family homes was 29 in August 2021, sharply down from 52 days a year ago and 59 days two year earlier. Inventory was at a 2.4 months supply in August 2021, down from 3 months in August 2020 and 5.6 months in August 2019.


Sources:

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