The French housing market remains in a downturn, with home sales and construction activity still in decline; gradual stabilization is anticipated to begin this year, expectations now tied to improved credit conditions and public policies supporting the industry.

This extended overview from the Global Property Guide covers key aspects of the French housing market and takes a closer look at its most recent developments and long-term trends.

Table of Contents

• Housing Market Snapshot
• Historic Perspective
• Demand Highlights
• Supply Highlights
• Rental Market
• Mortgage Market
• Socio-Economic Context

Housing Market Snapshot

Residential property prices in France continue their downward trajectory, though the pace of decline is gradually easing. In the third quarter of 2024, the price index of second-hand dwellings in Metropolitan France fell by 3.96% year-on-year (-5.61% inflation-adjusted), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of price decreases since Q3 2023, according to preliminary data from the National Institute for Statistical and Economic Studies (INSEE). On a quarterly basis, prices declined by 0.08% (-0.26% inflation-adjusted).

Projections from the Superior Council of Notaries (CSN), based on preliminary contracts, indicate that the annual decline in second-hand housing prices is expected to moderate to -2.1% by the end of 2024, with detached homes falling by 2.3% and apartments by 1.7% year-on-year. The rate of decline is anticipated to continue easing, reaching -0.7% year-on-year by the end of February 2025, with prices stabilizing across both property types.

France's house price annual change:

In Île-de-France, the country's most populous and economically significant region, second-hand dwelling prices fell by 5.24% year-on-year, reaching EUR 6,150 (USD 6,758) per square meter, according to the Chamber of Notaries of Paris. Paris has experienced price declines for 13 consecutive quarters, with a 5.56% drop in Q3 2024, bringing the average price to EUR 9,520 (USD 10,462) per square meter.

Second-hand dwelling price dynamics in Île-de-France region:

Data Source: Chamber of Notaries of Paris.

After two years of consecutive declines, signs of stabilization emerged towards the end of 2024. The National Real Estate Federation of France (FNAIM) reported that as of January 1, 2025, the average price of residential properties across the country stood at EUR 2,930 (USD 3,123) per square meter, reflecting a marginal 0.8% year-on-year decrease.

Looking ahead, FNAIM anticipates a slight recovery, with prices stabilizing in the first half of 2025, followed by a projected 1% year-on-year increase in the second half. According to FNAIM, the pace of market revival will largely depend on mortgage rates and financing conditions, which are expected to improve throughout 2025, enhancing buyers' purchasing power. Additionally, geopolitical developments and domestic housing policies will play a crucial role in shaping the market's trajectory.

"The year 2024 was a pivotal one for the real estate market, marked by significant adjustments but also encouraging signs of stabilization. Industry professionals must now prepare for a gradual recovery, which will depend on changes in interest rates and public policies supporting housing," stated Loïc Cantin, President of FNAIM.

Historic Perspective:

Market Cycles Responsive to Global Economic Conditions and Government Measures

After a seven-year bust period of low prices and declining supply in the early and mid-1990s, France experienced almost a decade of dynamic expansion of the housing market, when prices surged by 150% (113% inflation-adjusted) between 1997 and 2007, in part due to several consecutive legislative schemes that incentivized investment with attractive property amortization system and eventually encouraged new development. During the construction peak of 2005-2007, the average annual volume exceeded 546,000 authorized and 461,000 started residential units.

Reacting to the global financial crisis, the market started to weaken towards the end of 2008, reaching its lowest point in Q2 2009 when the prices decreased by 9.1% (8.9% inflation-adjusted) year-on-year. Construction activity slowed down and in 2009, the total number of permits issued dropped to just over 350,000 units, with only about 326,000 dwellings started. A subsequent recovery followed, lasting until the end of 2011.

From 2012 to 2015, the housing market experienced a downturn, fueled by increases in interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and reduction in tax advantages. House prices declined by an annual average of 1.7%, before rebounding in 2016. This upward dynamic persisted even throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, when the house price growth strengthened to 6.4% (6.3% inflation-adjusted) in 2020 and to 6.9% (4.1% inflation-adjusted) in 2021, marking the highest year-on-year increase since 2010.

In 2022, the market slowed down, with nominal prices increasing by 4.69% compared to the previous year. However, due to high inflation, this represented a real-term decline of 1.3%. The deceleration continued throughout 2023, and by Q4 2023, house prices for second-hand dwellings in Metropolitan France had decreased by 3.88% year-on-year, translating into a 7.33% inflation-adjusted fall. In parallel, construction activity hit its lowest point since 2000, with both permits issued and new projects falling well below the previously established baseline at 322,563 and 266,516 units in 2023, respectively.

20-year annual house price change (based on end-of-year price index of second-hand dwellings), Metropolitan France:

20-year construction activity dynamic (authorized and started housing units), France, excluding Mayotte:

Data Source: INSEE.

Demand Highlights:

Signs of Stabilization Emerge Amid Prolonged Decline in Residential Sales

The French housing market remains in a downturn, with home sales continuing to decline. According to data from the General Council for the Environment and Sustainable Development (IGEDD) on the second-hand housing market, as of November 2024, the total number of existing home sales in France stood at 778,000 units on a rolling 12-month basis. This figure aligns with levels last observed at the end of 2015. Year-on-year, sales decreased by 11.99%, marking the 29th consecutive month of decline.

The CSN suggests that sales volumes may have reached the bottom and anticipates a stabilization. "The real estate market finally seems to be reaching its low point after two years of a sharp and dizzying fall," the CSN noted in their latest report. The Council attributes this to stabilizing real estate prices and a continued decline in interest rates, reinforced by a recent European Central Bank announcement. Additionally, falling inflation in the Eurozone and France is improving affordability, gradually restoring purchasing power to buyers who were previously constrained by high costs and restrictive financial conditions. Nonetheless, while economic indicators suggest a potentially favorable shift, prudence remains essential given persistent geopolitical instability, tighter fiscal conditions, and political uncertainty. FNAIM anticipates transaction volumes in the second-hand housing segment to increase by 6% over the course of 2025, reaching around 825,000 units.

Data Source: CGEDD.

New home sales have followed a similar trend. The Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territory Cohesion reports that the number of new homes reserved by individual buyers in the first three quarters of 2024 reached just over 50,000 units (adjusted for seasonal variation and working days), reflecting a 10.14% year-on-year decline. However, market dynamics improved throughout the year, with the first quarter registering a 22.55% year-on-year drop and the third quarter showing a 5.51% year-on-year increase. Industry professionals expect this upward trend in reservations to persist, gradually reducing available inventory as new supply remains limited.

Data Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Renewal.

Regionally, positive growth was recorded in Pays de la Loire (+4.19% year-on-year), Brittany (+2.64%), and Occitania (+0.76%). In contrast, the most significant year-on-year declines were observed in Normandy (-25.11%), Corsica (-24.25%), and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (-23.47%). Île-de-France experienced a more moderate drop of -3.26% year-on-year.

New homes reserved by individuals by region, Metropolitan France:

Supply Highlights:

Sharp Contraction in Construction Activity Amid Cost Pressures and Weak Demand

The French new housing construction sector remains in a prolonged downturn, with activity levels nearing historic lows. Rising construction costs - driven by higher material prices following the war in Ukraine - and increasingly stringent environmental regulations have placed significant pressure on developers. Simultaneously, prospective buyers have been constrained by a sharp rise in borrowing costs and the withdrawal of government support measures for credit and rental investment.

According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Renewal, 330,544 dwellings were authorized for construction in 2024, reflecting a 12.71% year-on-year decline. Housing starts followed a similar trajectory, decreasing by 11.86% to just over 260,000 units.

Data Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Renewal.

The downturn has affected all regions of Metropolitan France. Centre-Val de Loire experienced the most pronounced fall in construction permits (-21.82% year-on-year), followed by Occitania (-21.80%) and Pays de la Loire (-21.19%). In terms of housing starts, Nouvelle-Aquitaine recorded the steepest decline, with a 21.30% year-on-year drop.

Residential construction activity by region, Metropolitan France:

Following a significant decline in 2023, when construction permits fell by 23.38% year-on-year and new housing starts dropped by 25.08%, the ongoing slowdown in 2024 underscores the severity of the sector's crisis. "The year 2023 was catastrophic, and 2024 is proving even worse," stated Pascal Boulanger, President of the Federation of Real Estate Developers (FPI). "Authorizations, building permits, and sales have all been halved."

Despite these challenges, according to Boulanger, certain factors may contribute to stabilization in 2025 and consequent recovery. A decline in interest rates could provide relief, with banks reportedly demonstrating increased willingness to extend credit. "Banks are very keen to lend," the FPI's president noted, citing this as a potential lever for market revitalization. Additionally, government initiatives outlined in the 2025 finance law - including the extension of the Zero-Rate Loan (PTZ) and a temporary exemption from gift and/or inheritance tax for the purchase of new homes - are expected to support demand.

While the Bank of France anticipates a gradual recovery in the residential construction sector beginning in mid-2025, the French Building Federation (FBB) offers a more cautious outlook, forecasting continued stagnation with housing starts expected to reach approximately 239,000 units in 2025.

Rental Market:

Slowdown in Rental Growth and End of Tax Reduction Scheme

In 2024, based on the preliminary figures from the INSEE, 40.3% of primary residences in Metropolitan France were occupied by tenants, of which 22.8% represented the private rental sector and 17.4% represented the public rental sector.

In both sectors, rental inflation, measured by the INSEE rent index, has stabilized in the first three quarters of 2024 after a period of rapid acceleration in 2022-2023. The overall rent index for Metropolitan France showed a 2.5% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, following 2.4% recorded in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. At the same time, a more pronounced annual growth was registered in the social sector (3.7%) than in the private sector (1.9%). Within the private sector, the same level of annual growth (1.9%) was observed in the Paris conurbation and the rest of Metropolitan France.

Furthermore, the INSEE rent reference index (a forward-looking indicator based on the overall consumer price inflation trend in the country and used to determine the allowed rent increases under existing contracts in the private sector) had been released from the 3.5% annual growth cap previously established by the government for Q3 2022 - Q1 2024 and dropped to the annual growth rate of 3.26% in Q2, 2.47% in Q3, and most recently 1.82% in Q4 2024.

Data Source: INSEE.

In nominal terms, according to the residential market overview from the real estate investment firm Catella, the average apartment rents per square meter in Q3 2024 reached EUR 30.60 (USD 33.61) in Paris, EUR 20.10 (USD 22.08) in Nice, and EUR 17.50 (USD 19.22) in Toulouse, while other major French cities such as Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux, Montpellier, and Nantes remained more affordable with average apartment rents about EUR 14-16 per square meter.

Market analysis conducted by Global Property Guide in December 2024 found that the highest average asking rents were observed in Paris, Nice, and Lyon submarkets, where the average monthly rate for a two-bedroom unit reached EUR 2,587 (USD 2,711), EUR 1,490 (USD 1,561), and EUR 1,289 (USD 1,351), respectively.

The average asking apartment rents in selected submarkets by property type:

The corresponding gross rental yields for residential units in France averaged 4.70%, slightly up from 4.52% previously reported in April 2024. Regional performance varied, with the highest yields among the surveyed submarkets registered in Marseille (5.17%), Montpellier (4.84%), and Paris (4.83%), while the lowest yield level was registered in Toulouse (4.39%).

In general, over the last decade, the growth in apartment prices has significantly outpaced the growth in rents, both nationwide and in the capital region. Between 2014 and 2024, second-hand dwelling prices in Metropolitan France surged by 24%, whereas actual rents during the same period saw a more modest increase of about 9%. The slower increase in rents can be in part attributed to a large public housing sector and the heavily regulated nature of the rental market in France, where, during certain periods, allowable rent increases were set below the inflation rate.

The rental market regulation in France aimed at improving housing accessibility is complex, widely debated, and subject to changes with each new political majority. A summary of the current regulatory framework is available from the Legal and Administrative Information Department of the French government.

Among the current pressing challenges for the market, the analysis from FNAIM points out the issue of energy standards compliance: starting from January 2025, homes rated G in the Energy Performance Diagnostic (DPE) can no longer be rented, directly affecting 567,000 properties.

The recent end of the tax reduction scheme for rental property investments under the Pinel law (which is no longer available since January 2025) and the growing number of short-term rental properties across France are also likely to impact the development of the market in the upcoming periods.

Mortgage Market:

New Loan Production Shifts Towards Gradual Recovery as Interest Rates Fall

Interest rates on new loans in France have been decreasing gradually along with the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rates. Following a 25 b.p. cut in December, at the end of January 2025, the ECB announced another 25 b.p. decrease in its key rates, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, main refinancing operations rate to 2.90%, and marginal lending facility rate to 3.15%.

France's mortgage loan interest rates:

Commenting on the decision in a press release, the ECB pointed out that while recent cuts are gradually making new borrowing less expensive for businesses and households, prior policy restrictions continue to impact the existing credit: "Financing conditions continue to be tight, also because monetary policy remains restrictive and past interest rate hikes are still transmitting to the stock of credit, with some maturing loans being rolled over at higher rates."

Data Source: ECB.

The average interest rate on new loans to households for house purchase in France reached 3.14%, 0.46 p.p. down from a decade peak of 3.60% recorded in December 2023, but still notably above the pre-2022 baseline. The interest rate year-on-year trajectories were similar for loans of various initial rate fixation periods (IRF), except for the most market-sensitive category of new loans with floating rate and IRF of up to one year, where the average rate fluctuated between 3.75% and 4.07% throughout 2024 and in December registered marginally above the comparable 2023 level.

At the same time, reflecting the lasting impact of monetary policy restrictions, the average interest rate on outstanding housing loans was reported at 1.82% in December 2024, 0.19 p.p. up since December 2023, and 0.35 p.p. up since December 2022.

Most new housing loans in France are granted at fixed interest rates, and the share of variable-rate loans remains significantly lower than the eurozone average.

Average interest rates on loans to households for house purchase:

After a sharp decline in 2023, the production of new housing loans in France continued to suffer from weak household demand, with the total value of new credit in 2024 dropping by 13.4% year-on-year, reaching only EUR 144.6 billion (USD 156.5 billion). The latest reporting from the Bank of France, however, shows a gradual pick-up in pure new lending since early 2024, suggesting a start of recovery for the market.

"The rebound that began in the spring continued in December, with [seasonally adjusted] monthly production of housing loans (excluding renegotiations) reaching a high for the year at EUR 11.6 billion (after EUR 10.7 billion in November and a low of EUR 6.8 billion in February). This recovery took place against a backdrop of a marked fall in the cost of new housing loans," said the central bank in the statistical release.

Data Source: Bank of France.

Despite the gradual pick-up in demand for housing credit observed in 2024, the annual variation in outstanding housing loans remained negative for the second year in a row, with repayments of past loans still exceeding the amounts of new lending. At the end of 2024, the stock reached EUR 1.29 trillion (USD 1.39 trillion), a 2.7% decline from the end of 2023.

The relative size of the market in France has also fallen from the peak of an estimated 51.4% of GDP at current prices in 2020 to an estimated 46.9% in 2023. "The ratio of outstanding household housing loans to GDP <…> in France continues to significantly exceed that of our main European neighbors. However, the annual rate of change in outstanding household housing loans has become negative in France while it is once again positive in the eurozone," noted the Bank of France in their Q3 2024 housing loans market overview.

According to the 2024 consumer survey published by Optimhome Immobilier, 75% of those who bought a primary residence in France in the last 3 years used mortgages to finance their purchases. The use of credit was particularly high among young people aged 25-34 (82%) and buyers in the Paris metropolitan area (86%).

Data Sources: ECB, Eurostat.

Socio-Economic Context:

Slow-Paced Growth, Expansion of Government Debt to Continue

After the massive 7.6% drop in 2020 and the subsequent rebound growth in 2021-2022, the French economy returned to a slower-paced expansion, with the 2024 real GDP growth estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission at 1.1%. Dragged by fiscal adjustment, the economy is forecast to slow further to a 0.8% growth in 2025 before picking up to 1.4% in 2026, fueled by lower funding costs and stronger private demand.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the country eased significantly from 5.7% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and was most recently reported by the INSEE at 1.7% in January 2025. The European Commission projects the indicator to decrease further and broadly stabilize at below 2% in the next two years, reflecting the transmission of lower energy, commodity, and food prices to core inflation.

Data Source: IMF.

The labor market in the country remains stable, with the seasonally adjusted ILO unemployment rate in Metropolitan France recorded by the INSEE at 7.1% in Q4 2024 - only marginally down from 7.3% from the same period in 2023. At the same time, the European Commission expects the employment growth to slow down in 2025 and 2026, as hours worked return to their 2019 levels and labor productivity bounces back; the unemployment rate is expected to gradually pick up to 7.5% and 7.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Data Source: INSEE.

In October 2024, Fitch Ratings revised the outlook for France's 'AA-' standing from stable to negative, noting increased fiscal policy risks tied to the 2024 slippage in the general government deficit, which is set to widen to 6.2% of GDP in 2024 (from 5.5% in 2023), according to the European Commission figures.

Wider fiscal deficits are expected to lead to a steep rise in government debt, towards 118.5% of GDP by 2028. At the same time, the implementation of consolidation measures, such as taxes on large corporations and wealthy individuals, deferred pension indexation, and curbing healthcare and local government spending, might be complicated by the domestic political landscape in France. "High political fragmentation and a minority government complicate France's ability to deliver on sustainable fiscal consolidation policies," said Fitch Ratings.

Sources:

1. National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE)
   1. In Q3 2024, prices of second-hand dwellings were virtually stable: https://www.insee.fr/
   2. Annual Estimates of the Housing Stock: https://www.insee.fr/
   3. Between July and October 2024, Rents Increased by 0.3%: https://www.insee.fr/
   4. In Q4 2024, the Housing Rent Reference Index Increased by 1.82% Over a Year: https://www.insee.fr/
   5. In January 2025, Consumer Prices Rose by 0,2% Over One Month and by 1.7% Year on Year: https://www.insee.fr/
   6. In Q4 2024, the Unemployment Rate was Virtually Stable: https://www.insee.fr/
2. European Central Bank (ECB)
   1. ECB Data Portal: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/
   2. Key ECB Interest Rates: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
   3. The Euro Area Housing Market During the COVID-19 Pandemic: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
   4. Monetary Policy Decisions, 30 January 2025: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
   5. US dollar/Euro, Quarterly: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/
   6. US dollar/Euro, Monthly: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/
3. Bank of France
   1. Bank of France Data Portal: https://webstat.banque-france.fr/
   2. Loans to Individuals, France 2024-12: https://www.banque-france.fr/
   3. Overview of Household Housing Loans - October 2024: https://www.banque-france.fr/
   4. Macroeconomic Projections - December 2024: https://www.banque-france.fr/
4. Legal and Administrative Information Department
   1. Real Estate Rental (FR): https://www.service-public.fr/
   2. Rent Reference Index (IRL) (FR): https://www.service-public.fr/
   3. Rental Investment Schemes (FR): https://www.service-public.fr/
   4. Real Estate Diagnostics: Energy Performance Diagnostics (EPD) (FR): https://www.service-public.fr/
5. General Council for the Environment and Sustainable Development (CGEDD)
   1. House Prices in France: Property Price Index, French Real Estate Market Trends in the Long Run: https://www.igedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/
6. Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territory Cohesion
   1. Construction Statistics https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/
   2. Marketing Of New Housing - Sale To Individuals In The 3rd Quarter Of 2024 (FR): https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/
7. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
   1. Country Overview: France: https://www.imf.org/
   2. 2024 Article IV Staff Report: https://www.imf.org/
8. European Commission
   1. Economic Forecast for France: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
9. Superior Council of Notaries (CSN)
   1. Real Estate Economic Report - January 2025: https://www.notaires.fr/
   2. Investment in Rental Property － PINEL system: https://www.notaires.fr/
   3. Rent Control: https://www.notaires.fr/
10. Chamber of Notaries of Paris
    1. Price per m² of Old Apartments Underlying the Notaries-INSEE indices (FR): https://www.basebien.com/
11. French Building Federation French Building Federation (FFB)
    1. 2024 Review and 202r Forecasts in the Construction Industry (FR): https://www.ffbatiment.fr/
12. National Real Estate Federation of France (FNAIM)
    1. Economic Situation and Housing Policy: From Crisis to Recovery (FR): https://www.fnaim.fr/
13. Fitch Ratings
    1. Fitch Revises France's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'AA-': https://www.fitchratings.com/
14. Catella
    1. European Residential Market Overview Q3/2024: https://www.catella.com/
15. Optimhome Immobilier
    1. Optimhome Immobilier Barometer 2024 Real Estate Buying and Selling Behavior (FR): https://www.optimhome-recrutement.com/
16. BFM Immo
    1. After A "Massacre" In 2024, Construction Professionals Have "Hope" For 2025 (FR): https://www.bfmtv.com/immobilier/
17. Maslow. Valority Group
    1. What is the outlook for new real estate in Q3 2024? (FR): https://blog.maslow.immo/