House prices rose by 2.73% during the year to Q3 2021

Mexico’s housing market has been stable, with the nationwide house price index rising by 2.73% during the year to Q3 2021, following a y-o-y growth of 1.08% in Q3 2020. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased slightly by 0.44% during the latest quarter.

For almost a decade the housing market has hardly moved. In 2009, house prices rose 0.77% (inflation-adjusted), in 2010 it fell 0.59%, in 2011 + 2.37%, in 2012 -1.15%, in 2013 + 0.39%, in 2014 + 0.84%, in 2015, all inflation-adjusted. The housing market improved gradually in recent years, with real house prices rising by an annual average of 3% from 2016 to 2020.

 

Luxury market buoyed by both foreign and domestic demand. Mexico’s real estate market has been buoyed by strong demand in resort communities, according to the International Consortium of Real Estate Associations (ICREA). Before the pandemic, American and Canadian buyers were returning to Mexico, after a several-year slump, thanks to low oil prices and the strong US dollar, pushing home values up. 

Mexico’s rising middle class continues to boost the housing market. The country’s middle class was estimated to account for almost half of the total households, at 14.6 million. They are expected to continue growing, with about 3.8 million more households projected to move into the middle class by 2030.

Rents, rental yields: moderate yields at 4.9% to 5.4%

Mexico City apartment costs are reasonable at around $3,000 per sq. m. 

Mexico: typical city centre apartment buying price, monthly rent (120 sq. m)
	Buying price	Rate per month	Yield
Mexico City	$350,000	$1,500	5.2%

Recent news. Mexico’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q3 2021, following a whopping 19.9% annual expansion in Q2 2021. The economy is projected to grow by 6.2% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Mexican economy suffered eight consecutive quarters of economic downturn from Q2 2019 to Q1 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and energy shortages. As a result, the economy tumbled by a huge 8.2% during 2020, its biggest annual contraction since the 1930s, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). 

In November 2021, the central bank Banco de Mexico (Banxico) raised its key rate by another 25 basis points to 5%, its fourth consecutive rate hike in the past five months, as expectations of inflation this year rose again.