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Egypt's crazy inflation is pushing up property prices

Oct 20, 2017 | 0 Comment(s)


Trend: house prices fell 5.32% y-o-y in Q2 2017.
Egypt is a good lesson in why it is important to distinguish between nominal and real house prices.  Extraordinarily high inflation (29% and rising) caused by floating the currency in November 2016 means that 22.86% nominal house prices increases actually disguise real house prices declines of 5.32%! 
 
Egypt's economy grew by 4.3% in 2016, the highest growth in 6 years, on the back of strong private consumption and investment in energy, real estate and infrastructure. The economy is expected to grow by 3.5% this year and by another 4.5% in 2018.
 
Analysis: a property boom is coming. 
Egypt’s housing market is widely expected to rise strongly in value in coming years. Why?  Because inflation is eating Egyptians' savings by 29% per annum.  Even if property is also falling in value (in real terms), it is falling less than cash.  So Egypt's moneyed classes are buying property. Especially as it is hard to get money out of the country.  And there are excellent rental yields in Cairo.
 
Rents, rental yields: excellent yields in Cairo at 9.40% 
Cairo apartments are inexpensive at around $831 per sq. m. 
 
Egypt: city centre apartment, buying price, monthly rent (120 sq.m.) 
   Buying price  Rent per month  Yield
 Cairo  $124,650  $977  9.40%
 
Recent news.  President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently removed the last restrictions on foreign ownership of land and property in Egypt. He also allowed the government, the biggest landowner in Egypt, to use its land for public-private partnership schemes.





Market Analysis - Egypt
Time series for residential property
 
Mean price of housing unit, cash purchase, Egypt
Price/Rent Ratio: 11 yrs

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