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Investment Analysis

Q3 2016: World's housing markets seem poised to slow, though the boom continues vigorously in most of Europe, China, and Canada

by GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE

Jan 04, 2017


The world's housing markets show signs that the boom is losing momentum in selected areas, with most of Asia, Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and New Zealand experiencing either house price falls or a rapid deceleration of house price rises. The five strongest housing markets in our global survey during the year to Q3 2016 were China (+24.32%), Iceland (+10.85%), Canada (+10.18%), Romania (+9.02%), and Germany (+8.64%).

The biggest y-o-y house-price declines in Q3 2016 were in Qatar (-13.32%), Russia (-11.34%), Brazil (-7.71%), Mongolia (-6.66%), and Hong Kong (-5.9%).

However it is too early to call an end to the boom. During the year to third quarter of 2016, house prices rose in 28 out of the 46 world's housing markets which have so far published housing statistics, using inflation-adjusted figures. The more upbeat nominal figures, more familiar to the public, showed house price rises in 32 countries, and declines in 14 countries.

Momentum. While momentum in our sample is still mostly upwards, countries with "rising momentum" only just outnumber countries with "decreasing momentum" - a significant change, after several years when rising momentum counties strongly outnumbered the others.

During Q3 2016, 24 housing markets showed stronger upward momentum, while 22 housing markets showed weaker momentum. Momentum is a measure of the "change in the change"; simply put, momentum has increased if a property market has risen faster this year than last (or fallen less).

Inflation-adjusted figures are used throughout this survey, which covers the period till end of the third quarter of 2016. In the case of Kiev, Ukraine, the Global Property Guide adjusts using the official U.S. inflation rate since Ukrainian secondary market dwelling sales are denominated in U.S. dollars.

Source: Various series, data descriptions and sources here

Analysis by Region:

  • Europe's house price boom continues unabated. Seven of the ten strongest housing markets in our global survey are in Europe. House prices rose in 17 of the 23 European housing markets for which figures were available during the year to Q3 2016.

  • Iceland is now the strongest housing market in Europe and second best performer in our global survey, against a background of strong economic growth. Nationwide house prices rose by 10.85% during the year to Q3 2016, far higher than the annual rise of 5.27% a year earlier. This surge can be attributed to strong demand, coupled with limited housing supply, especially in the capital city of Reykjavik. House prices in Iceland increased 5.4% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Romania's housing market continues to rise rapidly, amidst strong economic growth, a construction boom, and the government's focus on rebuilding public trust. The average selling price of apartments rose by 9.2% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y rises of 10.1% in Q2 2016, 11.55% in Q1 2016, 7.74% in Q4 2015, 7.57% in Q3 2015, and 4.83% in Q2 2015. House prices increased 2.74% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Germany's housing market also continues to rise rapidly, amidst housing supply shortages, robust demand, and strong economic fundamentals. The price index for apartments rose by 8.64% during the year to Q3 2016, after annual rises of 9.9% in Q2 2016, 6.25% in Q1 2016, 7.62% in Q4 2015, 4.3% in Q3 2015, 4.2% in Q2 2015, and 6.04% in Q1 2015. Apartment prices rose slightly by 0.17% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Sweden's house prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, thanks to the introduction of new amortization requirements in June 2016. Swedish house prices rose by 7.56% during the year to Q3 2016, from y-o-y increases of 8% in Q2 2016, 9.7% in Q1 2016, 12.5% in Q4 2015, 11.09% in Q3 2015, 10.68% in Q2 2015, and 9.14% in Q1 2015. House prices increased 3.25% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Ireland's housing market is now very strong, the surge having spread nation-wide, with residential property prices up by 7.43% during the year to end-Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 4.57% in Q2 2016, 5.84% in Q1 2016, 4.47% in Q4 2015, and 4.51% in Q3 2015. On a quarterly basis, Irish house prices surged 5.98% in Q3 2016.

    Latvia's housing market is also showing spectacular performance, with the average price of apartments in Riga rising by 7.32% during the year to Q3 2016, the fourth consecutive quarter of annual price hike. This was also a sharp improvement from a meagre y-o-y growth of 0.16% in a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, house prices in the capital increased 3.82% in Q3 2016.

    Estonia's housing market remains strong, with average apartment prices in Tallinn rising by 7.2% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 2.75% in Q2 2016, 1.14% in Q1 2016, 4.59% in Q4 2015, 6.31% in Q3 2015, and 8.96% in Q3 2015. Quarter-on-quarter, house prices in the capital rose strongly by 5% in Q3 2016.

    Other strong European housing markets included Slovak Republic, with house prices rising by 6.18% y-o-y in Q3 2016, followed by Vilnius, Lithuania (5.1%), Istanbul, Turkey (4.92%), the UK (4.17%), and Norway (3.8%). All, except Turkey, saw positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter. Slovak Republic, Lithuania and the UK performed better in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

    European housing markets with minimal house price rises included Portugal with house prices rising by 2.95% during the year to Q3 2016, Spain (2.19%), the Netherlands (1.4%), France (1.37%), and Finland (1.03%). All, except the Netherlands, recorded positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter and showed better performance in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

  • Europe's weakest housing markets. Russia remains the weakest housing market in Europe and the second worst performer in our global survey, with residential property prices plunging by 11.34% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a little better than last year's decline of 13.38%. Russia's house prices fell by 2.02% during the latest quarter. Russia's housing market continues to suffer from the country's financial crisis, largely unleashed by low oil prices, but also due to the intervention in Syria and the negative impact of the recent war with neighboring Ukraine.

  • In Montenegro, prices of dwellings in new residential buildings fell 5.33% y-o-y in Q3 2016, worse than the 0.49% annual decline seen in the previous year. On a quarterly basis, house prices dropped 0.12% during the latest quarter.

    Other European countries with minimal house price falls included Kiev, Ukraine, with house prices falling by 2.93% during the year to Q3 2016, Switzerland (-1.08%), Macedonia (-0.57%), and Greece (-0.53%). Switzerland and Greece recorded positive quarterly price changes during the latest quarter, of 0.1% and 0.03%, respectively. In contrast, Macedonia and Ukraine saw negative quarterly price changes of 1.41% and 0.75%, respectively. Despite this, only Switzerland showed worse performance in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

  • Most Asian housing markets continue to deteriorate. House prices fell in seven of the ten Asian markets for which figures were available during the year to Q3 2016. Only four Asian housing markets were stronger in Q3 2016 than a year earlier.
  • Mongolia's housing market is now the weakest housing market in Asia and the fourth worst performer in our global house price survey, despite signs of improvement. Nationwide house prices fell by 6.66% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y declines of 10.55% in Q2 2016, 11.93% in Q1 2016, 12.24% in Q4 2015, 14.54% in Q3 2015, 15.28% in Q2 2015, and 14.28% in Q1 2015. In a quarterly basis, house prices increased 1.63% during the latest quarter.

    Hong Kong's housing market continues to struggle, amidst an economic slowdown. Residential property prices fell by 5.9% during the year to Q3 2016, in sharp contrast with the 12.66% y-o-y rise a year earlier. However it is worth noting that house prices increased a significant 6.08% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    In The Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD fell by 5.14% during the year to Q3 2016, in sharp contrast with y-o-y increases of 5.41% during the same period last year. Housing prices dropped 1.15% q-o-q during Q3 2016.

    Taiwan's nationwide house prices dropped 2.95% y-o-y in Q3 2016, after annual declines of 4.58% and 7.65% in the first two quarters of this year, mainly due to the government's market cooling measures. This was its sixth consecutive quarter of annual decline since 2008. House prices dropped 0.73% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Singapore's housing market is still weak, amidst fragile economy. House prices fell by 2.89% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y declines of 2.94% in Q2 2016, 2.35% in Q1 2016, 3.05% in Q4 2015, and 3.62% in Q3 2015. House prices fell by 1% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

    In Indonesia, residential prices in the country's 14 largest cities fell by 0.3% y-o-y in Q3 2016, the seventh consecutive quarter of y-o-y declines. House prices dropped 0.9% q-o-q during the latest quarter. Demand continues to weaken sharply and total supply growth is expected to slow in the coming years.

    South Korea's housing market is also weak, with the nationwide housing purchase price index falling slightly by 0.06% during the year to Q3 2016, in contrast to the y-o-y rise of 2.62% a year earlier. House prices dropped 0.42% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

  • House prices continue to rise in some parts of Asia. China remains the best performer in our global house price survey while Japan's housing market remains strong. Thailand continues to experience minimal house price growth.
  • China's housing market remains the best performer in our global house price survey. House prices surged following government measures to support the housing market. In Shanghai the price index of second-hand houses surged by 24.32% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a sharp improvement from an annual rise of 5.07 a year earlier and the highest annual rise since Q2 2008. During the latest quarter, house prices in Shanghai rose by 5.56%.

    In Japan, housing prices continued to rise during the year to Q3 2016, amidst strong demand. In Tokyo, the average price of existing condominiums rose by 6.56% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 5.7% in Q2 2016, 5.45% in Q1 2016, 1% in Q4 2015, 8.97% in Q3 2015, 6.2% in Q2 2015, and 6.34% in Q1 2015. Residential property prices increased 2.8% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

    Thailand's property market is losing steam, amidst a weak economy, low investor confidence, and tighter lending rules. Nationwide house prices rose by a meagre 1.13% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y rises of 4.38% in Q2 2016, 0.42% in Q1 2016, 1.98% in Q4 2015, and 1.66% in Q3 2015. House prices actually dropped 1.64% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

  • US housing market rising at a slower pace; Canadian house price rises accelerating. Despite continued increases in demand and improving economic prospects, in the U.S. the S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by 3.92% during the year to Q3 2016 (inflation-adjusted), a slowdown from an annual rise of 4.82% in Q3 2015. House prices increased by 1.29% during the latest quarter. Similarly, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index rose by 4.89% during the year to Q3 2016 (inflation-adjusted), slightly down on Q3 2015's y-o-y increase of 5.66%. The index rose by 1.17% in Q3 2016 from the previous quarter.
  • Canada's housing market continues to grow stronger, despite repeated market-cooling measures. House prices in Canada's eleven major cities surged by 10.18% during the year to Q3 2016, more than double the 4.57% y-o-y rise in the previous year and the biggest annual increase since Q2 2010. House prices increased 4.59% q-o-q in Q3 2016. Home sales rose 2% in October 2016 from the same period last year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Sales were up from a year earlier in about 60% of all local markets, led by the Greater Toronto Area.

  • Middle East housing markets remain depressed. Of the four Middle Eastern housing markets included in our global survey, all, except Israel, saw falling house prices during the year to Q3 2016. Egypt and UAE performed better in Q3 2016 than the previous year while Qatar and Israel performed worse over the same period.
  • Qatar is now the weakest housing market in our global survey, with the nationwide real estate price index plunging by 13.32% during the year to Q3 2016, amidst an economic slowdown. This was a sharp turnaround from the y-o-y increase of 16.3% from a year earlier. Property prices fell by 10.98% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

    Dubai's residential property prices dropped 1.95% during the year to Q3 2016, its seventh consecutive quarter of annual declines. However this is a significant improvement from the y-o-y price decline of 14.1% in Q3 2015. House prices increased slightly by 0.13% during the latest quarter. Residential property sales dropped 24% to AED3.45 billion (US$0.94 billion) in Q3 2016 from the previous quarter, according to Dubai Land Department.

    Egypt's housing market shows some signs of improvement, with the nationwide real estate index falling by only 1.24% during the year to Q3 2016, after annual declines of 11.2% in Q2 2016, 9.49% in Q1 2016, 14.22% in Q4 2015 and 12.48% in Q3 2015. House prices increased by an astounding 11.61% during the latest quarter.

    Israel's housing price rises are slowing, amidst an economic slowdown. The nationwide average price of owner-occupied dwellings rose by 3.1% during the year to Q3 2016, a slowdown from a y-o-y rise of 5.56% a year ago and the lowest annual increase since Q1 2014. House prices actually fell by 2.19% q-o-q in Q3 2016. Demand and supply are both falling.

  • Pacific. The New Zealand's housing market's growth is now showing signs of cooling, as tighter rules on residential lending take effect. The nationwide median house prices rose by 5.85% during the year to Q3 2016, a sharp slowdown from a y-o-y increase of 14.86% during the same period last year. House prices rose by 2.66% q-o-q during Q3 2016. Total dwellings sold were 6,727 units in October 2016, down by 9% from the previous month and by 14% from a year earlier, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).
  • Africa. South Africa's housing market remains weak, amidst economic uncertainty. The price index for medium-sized apartments fell by 0.16% during the year to Q3 2016, its fourth quarter of annual price declines. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased slightly by 0.37% in Q3 2016. House prices are expected to continue falling in the remaining months of 2016, amidst the continued weakness of the rand, falling foreign investor confidence, and uncertain economic condition.
  • Latin America is slowing sharply. Brazil's housing market remains depressed, amidst the ongoing economic crisis and an uncertain political landscape. In Sao Paulo, house prices fell by 7.71% during the year to Q3 2016, worse than the 5.54% decline seen a year earlier, and the seventh consecutive quarter of falling house prices. Quarter-on-quarter, house prices dropped 1.23% in Q3 2016.

  • Chile's housing market is rapidly losing steam, with the average price of new apartments in Greater Santiago rising by just 1.46% during the year to Q3 2016. This was a sharp slowdown from an annual rise of 7.16% a year earlier and the lowest y-o-y rise since Q2 2010. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased 0.45% in Q3 2016.

    Mexico's housing market is now cooling, as demand starts to slow. The nationwide house price index rose by 3.84% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a slowdown from an annual rise of 5.45% in the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased 1.53% in Q3 2016.

Source: Various series, data descriptions and sources here

Detailed analysis

Europe's housing boom continues unabated

Seven of the ten strongest housing markets in our global survey are in Europe. House prices rose in 17 of the 23 European housing markets for which figures were available during the year to Q3 2016.

Iceland is now the strongest housing market in Europe and second best performer in our global survey, amidst strong economic growth. Nationwide house prices rose by 10.85% during the year to Q3 2016, far higher as compared to the annual rise of 5.27% a year earlier. This surge can be attributed to strong demand, coupled with limited housing supply, especially in the capital city of Reykjavik. House prices in Iceland increased 5.4% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Iceland saw a housing boom from 2002 to 2007, with real house prices surging by more than 73%. However, house prices plunged by 32.5% from early-2008 to 2010, due to the global crisis. The housing market was quiet in the next three years, with house prices rising by a meagre 5%. Fuelled by growing demand, Iceland saw strong house price rises of 5.18% in 2014 and 6.93% in 2015. Iceland's economy is expected to grow by a robust 4.9% this year, after expanding by 4% in 2015, 2% in 2014, 4.4% in 2013, 1.2% in 2012, and 2% in 2011, according to the IMF.

Romania's housing market continues to perform well, amidst strong economic growth, construction boom, and the government's focus on rebuilding public trust. The average selling price of apartments rose by 9.2% during the year to Q3 2016, from y-o-y rises of 10.1% in Q2 2016, 11.55% in Q1 2016, 7.74% in Q4 2015, 7.57% in Q3 2015, and 4.83% in Q2 2015. House prices increased 2.74% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Romania's strong performance in recent quarters comes as a surprise given its disappointing performance from 2008 to 2014, amidst struggling economy. House prices plunged by 24.22% in 2009, 22.08% in 2010, 6.99% in 2011, 5.96% in 2012, 10.43% in 2013, and 1.59% in 2014. It was only in 2015 that the housing market began to recover. The Romanian economy expanded by a robust 3.7% in 2015, one of the EU's highest growth rates and in contrast to almost zero growth between 2009 and 2014. Romania's economy is expected to grow by a robust 5% this year, due to tax cuts and salary increases.

Germany's housing market continues to grow stronger, amidst housing supply shortages, robust demand, and strong economic fundamentals. The price index for apartments rose by 8.64% during the year to Q3 2016, after annual rises of 9.9% in Q2 2016, 6.25% in Q1 2016, 7.62% in Q4 2015, 4.3% in Q3 2015, 4.2% in Q2 2015, and 6.04% in Q1 2015. Apartment prices rose slightly by 0.17% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Long a picture of housing market stability, Germany was one of the few countries that avoided a house-price slump in the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Since then, extremely low interest rates have encouraged demand. In Q3 2016, the economy expanded by 1.5% from a year earlier, after annual growth rates of 3.1% in Q2 2016 and 1.5% in Q1 2016, according to the Federal Statistics Office. The economy is expected to expand by 1.7% this year and by 1.4% next year, after growing by 1.5% in 2015, 1.6% in 2014, 0.4% in 2013 and 0.6% in 2012, according to the Bundesbank.

Sweden's house prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, thanks to the introduction of new amortization requirements in June 2016. Swedish house prices rose by 7.56% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 8% in Q2 2016, 9.7% in Q1 2016, 12.5% in Q4 2015, 11.09% in Q3 2015, 10.68% in Q2 2015, and 9.14% in Q1 2015. House prices increased 3.25% q-o-q in Q3 2016. Effective June 1, 2016, mortgage loans over 50% of the value of the property will have to be amortized by 1% every year, while those loans over 70% of the property value need to be amortized at 2% annually.

During Sweden's housing boom from 2000 to Q2 2008, house prices skyrocketed by 71%, inflation-adjusted. After a short-lived decline from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009 due to the global financial meltdown, residential property prices started to rise again in Q2 2009. There was a dip from Q4 2011 to Q3 2012 amidst a slowdown in economic growth, but house price growth resumed in Q4 2012 and price rises have been continuous since then. The Swedish economy is also slowing, with GDP growth of 2.8% year-on-year in Q3 2016, after 3.6% in Q2 2016, 4.2% in Q1 2016, and 4.9% in Q4 2015. The economy is projected to expand by 3.6% this year, after growing by 4.2% in 2015, 2.3% in 2014, and 1.2% in 2013, according to the IMF.

Ireland's housing market is growing stronger, with residential property prices up by 7.43% during the year to end-Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 4.57% in Q2 2016, 5.84% in Q1 2016, 4.47% in Q4 2015, and 4.51% in Q3 2015. On a quarterly basis, Irish house prices surged by a surprising 5.98% in Q3 2016.

The Irish economy is expected to grow by a healthy 4.9% this year and by another 3.2% in 2017. Ireland is considered by some to be Europe's austerity star performer, having introduced structural reforms early in the crisis and it is, according to this narrative, now reaping the benefits.

Latvia's housing market are also rising spectacularly, with the average price of apartments in Riga rising by 7.32% during the year to Q3 2016, the fourth consecutive quarter of annual price hike, and a sharp improvement from a meagre y-o-y growth of 0.16% a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, house prices in the capital increased 3.82% in Q3 2016. The economy is expected to expand by a modest 2.5% this year, after GDP growth rates of 2.7% in 2015, 2% in 2014, 2.9% in 2013, and 4% in 2012, according to the IMF.

Estonia's housing market remains strong, with average apartment prices in Tallinn rising by 7.2% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 2.75% in Q2 2016, 1.14% in Q1 2016, 4.59% in Q4 2015, 6.31% in Q3 2015, and 8.96% in Q3 2015. Quarter-on-quarter, house prices in the capital rose strongly by 5% in Q3 2016. Estonia's economy is projected to expand by just 1.5% this year and by another 2.5% in 2017, after GDP growth rates of 1.1% in 2015, 2.9% in 2014, 1.6% in 2013, and 5.2% in 2012.

Other strong European housing markets included Slovak Republic, with house prices rising by 6.18% y-o-y in Q3 2016, followed by Vilnius, Lithuania (5.1%), Istanbul, Turkey (4.92%), the UK (4.17%), and Norway (3.8%). All, except Turkey, saw positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter. Slovak Republic, Lithuania and the UK performed better in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

European housing markets with minimal house price rises included Portugal with house prices rising by 2.95% during the year to Q3 2016, Spain (2.19%), the Netherlands (1.4%), France (1.37%), and Finland (1.03%). All, except the Netherlands, recorded positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter and performed better in Q3 2016 than a year earlier.

Russia's house price declines stand out

Russia remains the weakest housing market in Europe and the second worst performer in our global survey, with residential property prices plunging by 11.34% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a little better than last year's decline of 13.38%. Russia's house prices fell by 2.02% during the latest quarter.

After a period of soaring consumer prices, inflation in Russia has somewhat stabilized, thanks to prudent monetary policies. In November 2016, headline inflation fell to 5.76%, from 6.09% the previous month and its lowest level since February 2014, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. The overall inflation rate had surged to 15.5% in 2015, the highest rate since 2002. Russia's high inflation rate is the reason for the substantial difference between the nominal y-o-y decline in Russian house prices (-7.32%) and the real decline (-11.34%). However, this year inflation is expected to slow to below the government's target of 5.5%.

Russia's housing market continues to suffer from the country's financial crisis, largely unleashed by low oil prices, but also due to the intervention in Syria and the negative impact of the recent war with neighboring Ukraine. In November 2016, crude oil prices stood at US$44.73 per barrel, up by 20.5% from US$37.13 per barrel in December 2015 but still 57.8% down from US$106.1 per barrel in June 2014. Russia's currency has fallen a long way, and interest rates are high.

In 2015, Russia's economy experienced its steepest contraction since 2009, with GDP falling by 3.7%, according to the IMF. The economy is expected to contract again by 0.6% this year, amidst international sanctions and persistently low oil prices, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.

From the perspective of foreigners the decline in the value of Russian property has been much greater, since the ruble has declined against major currencies. The ruble has lost more than 49% of its value against the US dollar in just three years, from an exchange rate of RUB32.752= US$1 in November 2013, to RUB64.399 in November 2016. Over the same period, the ruble depreciated against the euro by more than 36%, from RUB44.202 = EUR1 in November 2013 to RUB69.416= EUR1 in November 2016.

In Montenegro, the price of dwellings in new residential buildings fell by an average of 5.33% y-o-y in Q3 2016, worse than the 0.49% annual decline the previous year. On a quarterly basis, house prices dropped 0.12% during the latest quarter. The economy grew by 3.2% last year, after expansions of 1.8% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2013 and a contraction of 2.7% in 2012. Economic growth this year is projected to be a healthy 5.1%, according to the IMF.

Other European countries with minimal house price falls included Kiev, Ukraine, with house prices falling by 2.93% during the year to Q3 2016, Switzerland (-1.08%), Macedonia (-0.57%), and Greece (-0.53%). Switzerland and Greece recorded positive quarterly price changes during the latest quarter, of 0.1% and 0.03%, respectively. In contrast, Macedonia and Ukraine saw negative quarterly price changes of 1.41% and 0.75%, respectively. Despite this, only Switzerland showed worse performance in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

Most Asian housing markets continue to weaken

House prices fell in seven of the ten Asian markets for which figures were available during the year to Q3 2016. Only four Asian housing markets were stronger in Q3 2016 compared to a year earlier.

Mongolia's housing market is now the weakest housing market in Asia and the fourth worst performer in our global house price survey, despite signs of improvement. Nationwide house prices fell by 6.66% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y declines of 10.55% in Q2 2016, 11.93% in Q1 2016, 12.24% in Q4 2015, 14.54% in Q3 2015, 15.28% in Q2 2015, and 14.28% in Q1 2015. House prices increased 1.63% during the latest quarter.

Mongolia's economy grew by just 2.4% in 2015, sharply down from GDP growth rates of 7.9% in 2014, 11.6% in 2013, 12.3% in 2012, 17.3% in 2011, and 7.3% in 2010. The economy is projected to expand by a meagre 0.04% this year, amidst mounting external debt, falling budget revenues and low commodity prices.

Hong Kong's housing market continues to struggle, amidst economic slowdown. Residential property prices fell by 5.9% during the year to Q3 2016, in sharp contrast with the 12.66% y-o-y rise a year earlier. However house prices increased by a surprising 6.08% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

The number of property transactions fell by 9.6% y-o-y to 44,412 units in the first ten months of 2016, according to the Ratings and Valuation Department (RVD), while sales values dropped 8.8% y-o-y to HK$333.52 billion (US$43 billion) over the same period.

Sales are expected to continue falling in coming months, after the government introduced in November 5, 2016 an increase in stamp duties for all property transactions, except for first-time local buyers. Hong Kong's economy grew 1.9% in Q3 2016 from a year earlier, after growth rates of 1.7% in Q2 2016, 0.8% in Q1 2016, 1.9% in Q4 2015, and 2.3% in Q3 2015, according to the Census and Statistics Department. The economy is expected to grow by just 1.4% this year, the slowest growth since 2009.

In the Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD fell by 5.14% during the year to Q3 2016, in sharp contrast with y-o-y increases of 5.41% during the same period last year. Housing prices dropped 1.15% q-o-q during Q3 2016. Makati CBD property prices had soared by 28.3% from Q1 2011 to Q4 2015, amidst rapid economic growth.

The Philippine economy grew by 7.1% in Q3 2016 from a year earlier, up from GDP growth rates of 7% in Q2 2016, 6.9% in Q1 2016, 6.5% in Q4 2015, 6% in Q3 2015, 5.8% in Q2 2015, and 5% in Q1 2015. The economy is projected to grow between 6% and 7% this year, according to government estimates.

Taiwan's nationwide house prices fell 2.95% y-o-y in Q3 2016, after annual declines of 4.58% and 7.65% during the first two quarters of this year, mainly due to the government's housing market cooling measures, the sixth consecutive quarter of annual declines since 2008. House prices dropped 0.73% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Demand is now falling. Taipei recorded the biggest decline in sales among Taiwan's six major cities, with a sales decline of 21% during the first eleven months of 2016, followed by Taichung (-19%), Tainan (-14%), New Taipei (-11%), and Kaohsiung (-6%).

Taiwan's economy grew by 2.03% in Q3 2016, after meagre growth of 0.69% in Q2 2016, and contractions of 0.89% in Q4 2015 and 0.68% in Q1 2016, according to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). The economy grew by just 0.65% in 2015, the weakest annual growth since 2009. The country's GDP growth is expected at 1.35% this year, based on government estimates.

Singapore's housing market is still weak, amidst a fragile economy. House prices fell by 2.89% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y declines of 2.94% in Q2 2016, 2.35% in Q1 2016, 3.05% in Q4 2015, and 3.62% in Q3 2015. House prices fell by 1% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

Demand continues to fall. There were just 1,981 new private residential units sold in Q3 2016, down 12.2% the previous quarter and by 17.8% a year earlier, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

Supply is also down. The number of uncompleted private residential units launched dropped almost 34% y-o-y in Q3 2016.

Singapore's economy slowed sharply, expanding by just 0.6% y-o-y in Q3 2016, after growth rates of 2% in Q2 2016, 2.1% in Q1 2016 and 1.8% in Q4 2015, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore. GDP growth is expected of between 1% and 2% this year, after 2% in 2015, 3.3% in 2014, 4.7% in 2013, 3.7% in 2012, and 6.2% in 2011.

In Indonesia, residential prices in the country's 14 largest cities fell by 0.3% y-o-y in Q3 2016, the seventh consecutive quarter of y-o-y declines. House prices dropped 0.9% q-o-q during the latest quarter. Demand continues to weaken sharply and total supply growth is expected to slow in the coming years. Indonesia's economy grew by 5% y-o-y in Q3 2016, after 5.2% in Q2 2016, 4.92% in Q1 2016 and 5.04% in Q4 2015. The economy is expected to grow by 5% this year and by another 5.1% in 2017, according to the Asian Development Bank.

South Korea's housing market is also weak, with the nationwide housing purchase price index falling slightly by 0.06% during the year to Q3 2016, in contrast to the y-o-y rise of 2.62% a year earlier. House prices dropped 0.42% q-o-q during the latest quarter. Korea's economy is expected to grow by 2.7% this year, after growth rates 2.6% in 2015, 3.3% in 2014, 2.9% in 2013, 2.3% in 2012, and 3.7% in 2011.

Some parts of Asia continue to see house price rises

hile most of Asia is now falling, China and Japan are exceptions. Thailand continues to post minimal house price growth.

China's housing market remains the best performer in our global house price survey, as house prices surged after measures to support the housing market were introduced by the government. In Shanghai the price index of second-hand houses surged by 24.32% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a sharp improvement from an annual rise of 5.07% a year earlier and the highest annual rise since Q2 2008. During the latest quarter, house prices in Shanghai rose by 5.56%.

Demand is rising strongly. The value of homes sold rose by 42.6% in the first ten months of 2016 compared to the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Local real estate experts are quick to warn that housing starts need to remain restrained to absorb the country's overhang of unsold properties. To cool the housing market, in September 2016 the government raised the minimum downpayment threshold for non-locals, and stopped property companies issuing domestic bonds.

The central bank kept its benchmark one-year lending rate at 4.35% in November 2016, after cutting it five times in 2015. The Chinese economy grew by 6.7% y-o-y in Q3 2016, at par with the previous two quarters' 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively, amidst a string of government stimulus measures to shore up demand. The Chinese economy expanded by 6.9% in 2015, its slowest growth for 25 years.

In Japan, housing prices continue to rise during the year to Q3 2016, despite a weak economy. In Tokyo, the average price of existing condominiums rose by 6.56% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y increases of 5.7% in Q2 2016, 5.45% in Q1 2016, 1% in Q4 2015, 8.97% in Q3 2015, 6.2% in Q2 2015, and 6.34% in Q1 2015. Residential property prices increased 2.8% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Demand continues to rise. Existing condominium sales in Tokyo rose by 6.8% to 31,364 units in the first ten months of 2016 from a year earlier, according to The Land Institute of Japan. Likewise, sales of existing detached houses in Tokyo also increased 10.2% to 15,860 units over the same period. The Japanese economy grew by an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q3 2016, from a revised growth of 0.7% in Q2 2016, amidst stronger exports. Japan's economy is expected to grow by 0.5% this year, at par with the previous year's growth.

Moreover from a US$-based investor's perspective, the Japanese residential market's gains was bolstered by the 13.8% appreciation of the Japanese Yen from ¥123.725 = US$1 in June 2015, to ¥108.689 = US$1 in November 2016. However, this is not enough to offset the 31% drop in the value of yen against the dollar from 2012 to 2015.

Thailand's property market is losing steam, amidst weak economy, low investor confidence, and tighter lending rules. Nationwide house prices rose by a meagre 1.13% during the year to Q3 2016, after y-o-y rises of 4.38% in Q2 2016, 0.42% in Q1 2016, 1.98% in Q4 2015, and 1.66% in Q3 2015. House prices actually dropped 1.64% q-o-q in Q3 2016. Thailand's economy is expected to expand by a modest 3.2% this year, after GDP growth rates of 2.8% in 2015, 0.8% in 2014, 2.7% in 2013, and 7.2% in 2012, according to the IMF.

U.S. house price rises moderating

The pace of price-rises in the U.S. housing market is slowing gradually, despite improving economic prospects. The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by 3.92% during the year to Q3 2016 (inflation-adjusted), a slowdown from an annual rise of 4.82% in Q3 2015. House prices increased by 1.29% during the latest quarter. This was supported by Federal Housing Finance Agency's seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index, which rose by 4.89% during the year to Q3 2016 (inflation-adjusted), slightly down from a y-o-y increase of 5.66% in Q3 2015. The index rose by 1.17% in Q3 2016 from the previous quarter.

House prices continue to rise in all 20 major U.S. cities, according to the Case-Shiller index, with Seattle registering the biggest inflation-adjusted increase of 9.4% y-o-y in Q3 2016, followed by Portland (9.3%), Denver (7.2%), Dallas (6.5%), Tampa (6%), Miami (5.1%), Charlotte (4.7%), Los Angeles (4.4%), Detroit (4.3%), San Francisco (4.2%), and Las Vegas (4%). New York and Washington saw the lowest growth in inflation-adjusted house prices at 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

Residential construction continues to rise strongly. New privately-owned housing units authorized rose by 4.6% y-o-y to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,175,000 units in October 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Over the same period, the total number of housing starts rose by 23.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,323,000 units while completions rose by 7.2% to 1,055,000 units.

Demand is surging. New house sales were up by 17.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000 units in October 2016, compared to the same period last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. There were about 246,000 units for sale in July 2016, about 9.3% up from a year earlier.

U.S. homebuilders remain bullish, amidst a shortage of existing homes for sale. U.S. homebuilder sentiment stood at 63 in November 2016, unchanged from the previous month but slightly up on a year earlier, according to the National Association of Home Builders. A reading of 50 is the midpoint between positive and negative sentiments.

In the third quarter of 2016, the U.S. economy grew by an annualized rate of 3.2%, after growth rates of 1.4% in Q2 2016, 0.8% in Q1 2016, 1.4% in Q4 2015, 2% in Q3 2015, 3.9% in Q2 2015 and 0.6% in Q1 2015, amidst strong consumption and improving global trade, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The U.S. economy grew by 2.6% last year, matching its pace in 2014. The world's largest economy is expected to grow by just 1.6% this year.

Canada's housing market accelerating

Despite repeated market-cooling measures, house prices in Canada's eleven major cities surged by 10.18% during the year to Q3 2016, more than double the 4.57% y-o-y rise the previous year and the biggest annual increase since Q2 2010. House prices increased 4.59% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Biggest rises: Vancouver saw the biggest inflation-adjusted house price increases of 22.4% y-o-y in Q3 2016, followed by Victoria (16.3%), Toronto (14.8%), and Hamilton (11.6%). Winnipeg saw a modest growth of 3.2%.

Biggest falls: Calgary recorded the biggest price drop of 6.2% during the year to Q3 2016, followed by Quebec (-3.3%), Halifax (-2.2%), Edmonton (-2%), Montreal (-1.2%) and Ottawa (-0.5%).

Home sales increased 2% in October 2016 from the same period last year, setting a record sales increase for the month, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Sales were up from a year earlier in about 60% of all local markets, led by the Greater Toronto Area. There were about 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis in October 2016, the lowest level in almost 7 years and an indication that the housing market continues to become tighter. Sales activity is expected to rise by 6% this year, to a record 535,900 units, according to CREA.

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate unchanged at 0.50% in December 2016, after cutting it twice last year in response to plunging oil prices and worsening economic prospects. The key rate had previously been 1% from September 2010 to December 2014. The central bank will likely hold the key rate unchanged until the first quarter of 2018, amidst weak economic prospects.

Canada's economy grew by an annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3 2016, bouncing back from a Q2 slump brought about by declining exports and the adverse effects of last May's Alberta wildfires, according to Statistics Canada. Canada's economy, battered by the oil price decline, grew just 1.2% last year, less than half the 2.5% growth seen in 2014 and the slowest growth since the 2009 recession. The economy is expected to expand by 1.2% this year and by 1.9% in 2017, according to the IMF.

Middle East's housing markets somewhat depressed

Of the four Middle Eastern housing markets included in our global survey, all, except Israel, saw falling house prices during the year to Q3 2016. Egypt and UAE performed better in Q3 2016 than the previous year while Qatar and Israel performed worse over the same period.

Qatar is now the weakest housing market in our global survey. The nationwide real estate price index plunged 13.32% during the year to Q3 2016, amidst economic slowdown - a sharp turnaround from the y-o-y increase of 16.3% the previous year. Property prices fell by 10.98% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

Property demand in Qatar remained strong in the first nine months of 2016 after the value of real estate transactions reached an all-time high in 2015, boosted by sustainable economic and population growth, and a construction boom in preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Construction activity is expected to decline in coming months, with residential building permits falling by almost half in September 2016 from the previous year. The economy is expected to expand by a modest 2.6% this year, after growing by an annual average of 4.2% during 2012-15, and 15.7% in 2008-11, according to the IMF.

Dubai's residential property prices dropped 1.95% during the year to Q3 2016, its seventh consecutive quarter of annual declines, but this is a significant improvement from the y-o-y price decline of 14.1% in Q3 2015. House prices increased by 0.13% during the latest quarter.

Dubai's property market has been one of the world's most volatile. Dubai saw one of the world's worst housing crashes from Q3 2008 to Q3 2011 with house prices plunging by 53%. The market started to recover in 2012, with double-digit house price increases from Q2 2012 to Q4 2014. However, the property market began to slow in the second half of 2014, amidst housing oversupply, subdued demand and slower economic activity.

Residential property sales dropped 24% to AED3.45 billion (US$0.94 billion) in Q3 2016 from the previous quarter, according to the Dubai Land Department. Around 48,000 units are expected to be delivered into the market from 2016 to 2018, according to CBRE. UAE's economic growth is projected to slow to 2.4% this year, after GDP growth of 4% in 2015, 3.1% in 2014, 4.7% in 2013, 7.1% in 2012 and 4.9% in 2011, according to the IMF. This is due to lower oil prices, the slowing Chinese economy and looming regional public spending cuts.

Egypt's housing market shows some signs of improvement, with the nationwide real estate index falling by 1.24% during the year to Q3 2016, after annual declines of 11.2% in Q2 2016, 9.49% in Q1 2016, 14.22% in Q4 2015 and 12.48% in Q3 2015. House prices increased by a spectacular 11.61% during the latest quarter.

In an effort to buoy the property market, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently ratified Law 17/2015, removing the last remaining restrictions on foreign ownership of land and property in Egypt, and introduced rules allowing the government, the biggest landowner in Egypt, to contribute land to the private sector as part of public-private partnership schemes against a share of the revenue.

Egypt's economy grew by 4.2% in 2015, the highest growth in 5 years, on the back of a more stable political environment, large donations from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies and improving business sentiment, according to the IMF. The economy is expected to grow by 3.8% this year and by another 4% in 2017.

Israel's housing market is softening sharply, amidst an economic slowdown. The nationwide average price of owner-occupied dwellings rose by 3.1% during the year to Q3 2016, a slowdown from a y-o-y rise of 5.56% a year ago and the lowest annual increase since Q1 2014. House prices actually dropped 2.19% q-o-q in Q3 2016.

Demand and supply are both falling. After a more than 40% growth in 2015, new dwelling sales fell by 8.3% y-o-y to 22,704 units in the first three quarters of 2016, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The number of new dwellings for sale increased 16.4% to 29,836 units in September 2016 from a year earlier. Dwelling starts dropped 5.3% y-o-y to 12,163 units in Q2 2016 while dwelling completions fell by 8.1% to 9,886 units over the same period.

Israel's economy grew by an annualized rate of 3.2% in Q3 2016, after growth rates of 3.8% in Q2 2016 and 2.2% in Q1 2016, boosted by business investment and imports. The economy is expected to expand by 2.8% this year, after growing by 2.6% during both 2014 and 2015, 3.3% in 2013, 2.9% in 2012, and 5% in 2011, according to the Bank of Israel. The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.1 in November 2016, in an effort to boost economic growth while maintaining price and financial stability.

New Zealand's housing market slowing

New Zealand's housing market is now showing signs of cooling, as new tighter rules on residential lending take effect. The nationwide median house prices rose by 5.85% during the year to Q3 2016, a sharp slowdown from a y-o-y increase of 14.86% during the same period last year. House prices rose by 2.66% q-o-q during Q3 2016.

Demand is now falling. Total dwellings sold were 6,727 units in October 2016, down by 9% from the previous month and by 14% from a year earlier, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). Most of New Zealand's ten regions recorded annual declines in sales volumes, with Waikato/Bay of Plenty registering the biggest y-o-y drop of 25.4% in October 2016, followed by Auckland (-16.1%), Canterbury (-14.8%), and Wellington (-7.3%). Aside from new lending restrictions, the decline in sales can also be attributed to shortage of housing inventory across the country, with the number of properties for sale declining by almost 7,400 units in October 2016 from a year earlier.

New dwelling consents rose by 14.4% to 22,217 units in the first three quarters of 2016 from the same period last year, according to Statistics New Zealand. Consents for new houses, which increased by 16.4% over the same period, accounted for more than 72% of all dwelling consents.

New Zealand's economy is projected to expand by a modest 2.8% this year, after growing by 3% in 2014 and 2015, 1.7% in 2013, 2.8% in 2012, 1.8% in 2011 and 2% in 2010, according to the IMF. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently reduced its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%, in the wake of Donald Trump's unexpected US election win. Justifying the rate cut, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler noted: "Political uncertainty remains heightened and market volatility is elevated. "If U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pushes through with its campaign promises of a more closed approach to trade in the coming years, New Zealand's trade-reliant economy will be adversely affected.

South America is slowing sharply

Brazil's housing market remains depressed, amidst the ongoing economic crisis and an uncertain political landscape. In Sao Paulo, house prices fell by 7.71% during the year to Q3 2016, worse than the 5.54% decline seen in a year earlier. It was already its seventh consecutive quarter of falling house prices. Quarter-on-quarter, house prices dropped 1.23% in Q3 2016.

Brazil's economy remains in deep recession and unemployment is at record high. The economy shrank by 2.9% in Q3 2016 from a year earlier, after annual declines of 3.6% in Q2 2016, 5.4% in Q1 2016, 5.8% in Q4 2015, 4.5% in Q3 2015, 3% in Q2 2015, 2% in Q1 2015, 0.7% in Q4 2014, 1.1% in Q3 2014, and 0.8% in Q2 2014 - the country's worst and longest recession in more than a century.

Worse, the country is in the midst of immense political turmoil. In the past six months, Brazil has impeached its former President Dilma Rousseff, following the massive Petrobras corruption scandal, jailed the speaker of the house, and either removed or allowed five Cabinet ministers to step down because of allegations of corruption. Just last month, Brazil's new president, Michel Temer, was embroiled in a new corruption scandal, accused of exerting pressure to assist a top political ally in a property deal. Unemployment rose to 11.8% in the three months to October 2016, sharply up from 8.9% a year ago, according to the country's statistics agency, IBGE. Fitch Ratings has recently downgraded Brazil's sovereign rating into junk, in line with the other two major rating companies.

The economy is expected to contract by 3.3% this year, after a contraction of 3.8% in 2015, and growth rates of 0.1% in 2014, 3% in 2013, 1.8% in 2012, 3.9% in 2011 and 7.6% in 2010, according to the IMF. By December 2015, the Brazilian Real (BRL) had lost about 32% of its value against the U.S. dollar to reach an average monthly exchange rate of BRL3.8828 = USD1 as compared to BR2.6426 = USD1 in December 2014. However in the first eleven months of 2016, the real recovered by almost 16.3% to reach an exchange rate of BRL3.3399 = USD1, as economic and political outlook improves under the new government.

House prices in Sao Paulo soared by 113% (inflation-adjusted) from 2007 to 2013, while Rio De Janeiro's rose by 144%, as interest rates were progressively cut from 26% to 7.25% between 2003 and 2012. However starting in the first half 2013, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate nine times to 11% in April 2014, causing a sharp economic slowdown. After holding the key interest rate steady for almost seven months, the central bank decided to raise it again by 25 basis points in October 2014, and by 50 basis points in December 2014. In 2015, the central bank again raised the key rate five times to 14.25%, the highest level for almost six years. In October 2016, the central bank cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14% to buoy the struggling economy.

Chile's housing market is rapidly losing steam, with the average price of new apartments in Greater Santiago rising by just 1.46% during the year to Q3 2016. This was a sharp slowdown from an annual rise of 7.16% a year earlier and the slowest y-o-y rise since Q2 2010. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased 0.45% in Q3 2016.

In 2016, VAT of 19% was imposed on sales of properties by "habitual sellers" such as real estate companies, and on legal or natural persons who purchase and sell their properties in a span of less than one year.

Chile's economy is expected to expand by 1.7% this year, and by another 2% in 2017, after growing by 2.13 in 2015, 1.8% in 2014, 4% in 2013, 5.5% in 2012, and 5.8% in 2011, according to the IMF.

Mexico's housing market is now cooling. The nationwide house price index rose by 3.84% y-o-y in Q3 2016, a slowdown from an annual rise of 5.45% in the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased 1.53% in Q3 2016. Mexico has been a popular retirement destination, especially for Americans, Canadians, French, Spanish, and Italians.

From the perspective of foreign homebuyers the decline in property prices is greater, amidst the peso's sharp depreciation in recent months. In 2015, Mexico's peso slumped against the US dollar by about 15%, the biggest annual decline since 2008. In November 2016, the peso depreciated further by around 17% from a year earlier, at an exchange rate of MXN20.046 = USD1.

The Mexican economy grew by 2% year-on-year in Q3 2016, after annual growth of 2.5% in Q2 2016, 2.4% both in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, and 2.7% in Q3 2015, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI). The economy is expected to expand by 2.1% this year, after 2.5% last year, 2.2% in 2014, 1.4% in 2013, 4% in both 2011 and 2012, and 5.1% in 2011.

South Africa's housing market remains very weak

South Africa's price index for medium-sized apartments fell by 0.16% during the year to Q3 2016, its fourth quarter of annual price declines. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased slightly by 0.37% in Q3 2016.

House price rises are expected to continue slowing during the remainder of 2016, amidst falling foreign investor confidence and uncertain economic conditions. Likewise, residential construction activity is also expected to remain subdued and may deteriorate further in the coming months.

"Nominal house price growth is forecast to remain in a narrow range of between 4% and 4.5% in 2016 and 2017, with real price deflation of around 1.5% to 2% expected over this period, taking into account the outlook for headline consumer price inflation," said ABSA in its October report.

South Africa's economy grew by a meagre 0.6% during the full year to Q2 2016, after a contraction of 1.2% in Q1 2016 and an increase of 0.4% in the last quarter of 2015. Last year, the economy grew by about 1.3%, its slowest growth since the country emerged from a recession 2009. The economy is expected to slow further, with real GDP growth estimated at 0.12% this year, amidst severe drought, rising inflation, and declining exports, according to IMF.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the country's central bank, held its benchmark repurchase rate at 7% in November 2016, after raising it by a cumulative 75 basis points in the first four months of this year, in an effort to stop the rand from depreciating further and to contain inflationary pressures. The rand lost about 29.3% of its value during the year to In January 2016, partly caused by the weak economy. However in recent months, the rand has partially reversed its losses against the US dollar, with a monthly average exchange rate of ZAR13.9328 = USD1 in November 2016.

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